This was Boyd's World projected needs prior to yesterday's game:
Vanderbilt
Remaining: 7 home, 4 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 3
ROWP: 0.675
Top 45:
No more wins needed.
Top 32:
No more wins needed.
Top 16:
0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins
Top 8:
2 home wins, 4 road wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins
4 home wins, 1 road wins
5 home wins, 0 road wins
I think it looks like we're locked in as a Top 16 and a good chance to host a regional.
There are many remaining possibilities for Top 8
which now looks like this
2 1home wins, 4 road wins
3 2home wins, 2 road wins
4 3 home wins, 1 road wins
5 4 home wins, 0 road wins
4 road wins would mean beating Louisville and sweeping UT in Knoxville -- not gonna happen -- so strike that one
2 1home wins, 4 road wins
32home wins, 2 road wins
4 3 home wins, 1 road wins
5 4 home wins, 0 road wins
I think the best path is 4 home and 0 road wins -- taking the Bama and UK series 2-1 does it and we can still afford to get swept in Knoxville
Next best path is 3 home and 1 road wins -- beat Louisville and win 1 series with either Bama or UK. [The weakness of this path is even if you do it you will have gone 4-6 in SEC series play and that could knock you out of Top 8 despite meeting all the other metric requirements, especially if it comes down to us and Auburn or us and Ole Miss]
But you could also lose to Louisville and win the 2 home series and that'd actually be a better way to do it.
Finally, 2 home and 2 road wins. That's pretty unlikely but could be pulled off by beating Bama once, beating Louisville, beating UT once, and UK once. Again, this would leave us at 3-7 in SEC series play and that would likely not end up well for us.
So the best 2 paths are:
1. Take the Bama and UK series 2-1
2. Take the Bama and UK series 2-1
Final answer.
Vanderbilt
Remaining: 7 home, 4 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 3
ROWP: 0.675
Top 45:
No more wins needed.
Top 32:
No more wins needed.
Top 16:
0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins
Top 8:
2 home wins, 4 road wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins
4 home wins, 1 road wins
5 home wins, 0 road wins
I think it looks like we're locked in as a Top 16 and a good chance to host a regional.
There are many remaining possibilities for Top 8
which now looks like this
4 road wins would mean beating Louisville and sweeping UT in Knoxville -- not gonna happen -- so strike that one
3
I think the best path is 4 home and 0 road wins -- taking the Bama and UK series 2-1 does it and we can still afford to get swept in Knoxville
Next best path is 3 home and 1 road wins -- beat Louisville and win 1 series with either Bama or UK. [The weakness of this path is even if you do it you will have gone 4-6 in SEC series play and that could knock you out of Top 8 despite meeting all the other metric requirements, especially if it comes down to us and Auburn or us and Ole Miss]
But you could also lose to Louisville and win the 2 home series and that'd actually be a better way to do it.
Finally, 2 home and 2 road wins. That's pretty unlikely but could be pulled off by beating Bama once, beating Louisville, beating UT once, and UK once. Again, this would leave us at 3-7 in SEC series play and that would likely not end up well for us.
So the best 2 paths are:
1. Take the Bama and UK series 2-1
2. Take the Bama and UK series 2-1
Final answer.
