This weekend saw a real tightening in the race for regular season SEC baseball champion.
We now have 3 teams tied for 1st and 4 teams one game back. The next closest team, Ole Miss, is 2 games behind that followed by Vandy at 2 1/2 games behind that so neither is likely to move into the mix and logic tells you one of those top 7 teams will take the title, or perhaps share it. But who?
If one considers RPI then the two favorites are Kentucky (14-7 and #3 RPI) and Florida (13-8 and #6 RPI.) If that's how it turns out then they close the season playing each other in Gainesville and the stands might actually be full which they usually aren't because their fans don't really care much about baseball. Advantage Florida. However, Kentucky's other 2 series before that are Georgia and Tennessee at home. Advantage Kentucky.
So right now a simple prediction would be Florida wins the series at home with Kentucky and they both finish at 19-11, Florida getting the tie-breaker for SECT seeding purposes. However, I think Kentucky will sweep either Georgia or Tennessee (maybe both) and will prevail by going 20-10.
So that leaves the West where the other 5 contenders live. Most of their remaining games are with each other and that likely means only the top 2 (currently Auburn and Miss State) can reach 20 wins to beat out or tie Kentucky or Florida. RPI doesn't help us much with these teams as they are bunched together at 15, 17, 18, and 19 although A&M is far back at #35 (but rising quickly.)
None of these teams has an "easy" schedule down the home stretch but Auburn, LSU, and A&M all have 2 home series, the others have one.
Right now my guess would be Auburn prevails -- home series with Alabama (and a possible sweep) and Ole Miss and road series at LSU. My next best guess would be LSU -- home with Carolina and Auburn, on the road at Starkville.
When all is said and done it may be Ole Miss who decides who wins it all as they play @Florida, A&M, and @Auburn. If they pull off a series win against either Florida or Auburn that might just tip the scale in another team's favor, most likely Kentucky.
So if I had to guess right now I'd say Kentucky and Auburn tie for the SEC title at 20-10 and, since they didn't play each other, the #1 seed for the SECT will depend on who finishes 3rd and how KY/AU did against them.
With so many teams at the top it seems likely Vandy will finish around #8 to #9 in the SEC even if we go 6-3 down the stretch, leaving us, at best, at 16-13 (15-14 is more likely.) Then we'll be playing Ole Miss in our first game, the winner to get -- the SEC Champion in game 2 of the SECT.
We now have 3 teams tied for 1st and 4 teams one game back. The next closest team, Ole Miss, is 2 games behind that followed by Vandy at 2 1/2 games behind that so neither is likely to move into the mix and logic tells you one of those top 7 teams will take the title, or perhaps share it. But who?
If one considers RPI then the two favorites are Kentucky (14-7 and #3 RPI) and Florida (13-8 and #6 RPI.) If that's how it turns out then they close the season playing each other in Gainesville and the stands might actually be full which they usually aren't because their fans don't really care much about baseball. Advantage Florida. However, Kentucky's other 2 series before that are Georgia and Tennessee at home. Advantage Kentucky.
So right now a simple prediction would be Florida wins the series at home with Kentucky and they both finish at 19-11, Florida getting the tie-breaker for SECT seeding purposes. However, I think Kentucky will sweep either Georgia or Tennessee (maybe both) and will prevail by going 20-10.
So that leaves the West where the other 5 contenders live. Most of their remaining games are with each other and that likely means only the top 2 (currently Auburn and Miss State) can reach 20 wins to beat out or tie Kentucky or Florida. RPI doesn't help us much with these teams as they are bunched together at 15, 17, 18, and 19 although A&M is far back at #35 (but rising quickly.)
None of these teams has an "easy" schedule down the home stretch but Auburn, LSU, and A&M all have 2 home series, the others have one.
Right now my guess would be Auburn prevails -- home series with Alabama (and a possible sweep) and Ole Miss and road series at LSU. My next best guess would be LSU -- home with Carolina and Auburn, on the road at Starkville.
When all is said and done it may be Ole Miss who decides who wins it all as they play @Florida, A&M, and @Auburn. If they pull off a series win against either Florida or Auburn that might just tip the scale in another team's favor, most likely Kentucky.
So if I had to guess right now I'd say Kentucky and Auburn tie for the SEC title at 20-10 and, since they didn't play each other, the #1 seed for the SECT will depend on who finishes 3rd and how KY/AU did against them.
With so many teams at the top it seems likely Vandy will finish around #8 to #9 in the SEC even if we go 6-3 down the stretch, leaving us, at best, at 16-13 (15-14 is more likely.) Then we'll be playing Ole Miss in our first game, the winner to get -- the SEC Champion in game 2 of the SECT.
