The season is winding down quickly and it will soon be all over but for the shouting at each other Behind Closed Doors. Good thing nobody knows what goes on behind closed doors. Except maybe the FBI and NSC, possibly your landlord if you rent.
RPI: #3
SOS: #3
SEC series record: 4-4
vs Quad1 teams: 13-12, #2 in wins and #10 in winning pct.
Quad1 ELO: 16-12
vs. Top 25 polls: 10-10 [4 to go]
vs. Top 25 RPI: 13-10 [3 to go]
Best wins: 3-0 vs. #1 RPI Georgia, 2-1 vs. #13 RPI Alabama, 3-0 vs. #15 RPI Florida
Bad loses: 1 vs. MTSU
Polls: #6, 10, 11, 11, no NCBWA yet [#16 last week so likely 10-11 this week]
RPI
Boyd's World says we're a lock for Top 8 if we do either of the following:
1. beat Louis, beat UT once
2. beat KY once
Warren Nolan's RPI Ladder indicates we are too far behind #1 GA and #2 TX to catch them [barring either of them totally collapsing at the end]
We also cannot fall below #5 unless we totally collapse these last 7 games.
So, we're most likely locked into #3-5 with a slight lead over #4 Auburn and a little bit bigger lead over #5 Arkansas.
He predicts we'll end up #3 after beating Louisville, going 1-2 in Knoxville, and 2-1 vs. UK.
SOS
1. Tx Tech .6145
2. Auburn .6111
3, Vandy .6070
4. A&M .5933
5. Florida .5870
6. Georgia .5839
Probable final results: [it wasn't easy, but I did the math]
1. Vandy .6149 It pays to play UT late
2. Tx Tech .6124
3. Auburn .6103
4, Florida .5972 It pays to play TX late
5. Georgia .5839
6. A&M .5762 It does not pay to play MO late
Can only finish #1, 2, or 3
SEC series record:
Can only be 6-4, 5-5, or 4-6.
Mostly likely it'll be 5-5
But we can't let it be 4-6 and still expect a Top 8 National Seed
vs. Quad1 teams
With all 7 remaining being Quad1 our total wins will be between 13 and 20, so likely 16 or 17.
Should be good enough to remain #2.
vs. Top 25 polls
UT series will totally determine this along with Louisville result
Could end up as high as 14-10 or as low as 10-14. Most likely 12-12.
vs. Top 25 RPI
Louisville is currently #27 so they might creep into the Top 25. If they beat us they certainly will.
UT series will determine this result.
Could end up as high as 17-10 or as low as 13-14. Mostly likely 15-12.
Best wins
It'd be nice to add a series win over UT into this group. Also a win over Louisville.
But neither are necessary; what we have is good enough.
Bad losses
Not possible to have any more of these.
Curse you Lil Middle!!!
Polls
Impossible to predict this, but:
--Everyone expects us to lose the UT series so it's possible they leap ahead of us in the polls, but it won't cause us to fall much.
--But win the UT series and we're likely into the top 10 everywhere.
--Everybody expects us to win the UK series so that won't help us much at all.
--But losing the UK series will cause us to tumble an undetermined number of spots.
-- Beating Louisville will help, but a loss won't likely hurt at all, especially if we then win the UT and UK series.
-- Best possible result would be beat Louisville and win the UT and UK series. That'd definitely be top 10.
-- Worst result would be lose to Louisville and lose both remaining series. My guess is we'd still be top 20 or top 25. Our good wins already accumulated won't disappear.
So I guess that's most of Vandy's Resume that the Selection Committee will use to make their fateful decisions. I saw somewhere that Butch Thompson is on the committee this year and he should like us since he beat us. It always helps to have friendly people on the committee. Just ask UNC, sure did help them in basketball.
RPI: #3
SOS: #3
SEC series record: 4-4
vs Quad1 teams: 13-12, #2 in wins and #10 in winning pct.
Quad1 ELO: 16-12
vs. Top 25 polls: 10-10 [4 to go]
vs. Top 25 RPI: 13-10 [3 to go]
Best wins: 3-0 vs. #1 RPI Georgia, 2-1 vs. #13 RPI Alabama, 3-0 vs. #15 RPI Florida
Bad loses: 1 vs. MTSU
Polls: #6, 10, 11, 11, no NCBWA yet [#16 last week so likely 10-11 this week]
RPI
Boyd's World says we're a lock for Top 8 if we do either of the following:
1. beat Louis, beat UT once
2. beat KY once
Warren Nolan's RPI Ladder indicates we are too far behind #1 GA and #2 TX to catch them [barring either of them totally collapsing at the end]
We also cannot fall below #5 unless we totally collapse these last 7 games.
So, we're most likely locked into #3-5 with a slight lead over #4 Auburn and a little bit bigger lead over #5 Arkansas.
He predicts we'll end up #3 after beating Louisville, going 1-2 in Knoxville, and 2-1 vs. UK.
SOS
1. Tx Tech .6145
2. Auburn .6111
3, Vandy .6070
4. A&M .5933
5. Florida .5870
6. Georgia .5839
Probable final results: [it wasn't easy, but I did the math]
1. Vandy .6149 It pays to play UT late
2. Tx Tech .6124
3. Auburn .6103
4, Florida .5972 It pays to play TX late
5. Georgia .5839
6. A&M .5762 It does not pay to play MO late
Can only finish #1, 2, or 3
SEC series record:
Can only be 6-4, 5-5, or 4-6.
Mostly likely it'll be 5-5
But we can't let it be 4-6 and still expect a Top 8 National Seed
vs. Quad1 teams
With all 7 remaining being Quad1 our total wins will be between 13 and 20, so likely 16 or 17.
Should be good enough to remain #2.
vs. Top 25 polls
UT series will totally determine this along with Louisville result
Could end up as high as 14-10 or as low as 10-14. Most likely 12-12.
vs. Top 25 RPI
Louisville is currently #27 so they might creep into the Top 25. If they beat us they certainly will.
UT series will determine this result.
Could end up as high as 17-10 or as low as 13-14. Mostly likely 15-12.
Best wins
It'd be nice to add a series win over UT into this group. Also a win over Louisville.
But neither are necessary; what we have is good enough.
Bad losses
Not possible to have any more of these.
Curse you Lil Middle!!!
Polls
Impossible to predict this, but:
--Everyone expects us to lose the UT series so it's possible they leap ahead of us in the polls, but it won't cause us to fall much.
--But win the UT series and we're likely into the top 10 everywhere.
--Everybody expects us to win the UK series so that won't help us much at all.
--But losing the UK series will cause us to tumble an undetermined number of spots.
-- Beating Louisville will help, but a loss won't likely hurt at all, especially if we then win the UT and UK series.
-- Best possible result would be beat Louisville and win the UT and UK series. That'd definitely be top 10.
-- Worst result would be lose to Louisville and lose both remaining series. My guess is we'd still be top 20 or top 25. Our good wins already accumulated won't disappear.
So I guess that's most of Vandy's Resume that the Selection Committee will use to make their fateful decisions. I saw somewhere that Butch Thompson is on the committee this year and he should like us since he beat us. It always helps to have friendly people on the committee. Just ask UNC, sure did help them in basketball.
