And number 5 is what to do with Vanderbilt.

Cannot throw it in the ocean. 16 minutes left 2nd half and zero field goals. Most aren’t close.

Playing your 3rd game in 3 days has an affect.

He looks 180 degrees different compared to yesterday. Whole team shooting is same way really. Some of its AL and pressure just different when you are trailing or game situation. But man they’ve missed so many shots when wide open seemed like they hit all of those yesterday.

Used my made up forumula. Of note here, VU would move up a spot if I waited for new SoS as I'm guessing they will move up at least a spot maybe 2, but I'm guessing committee has their field tonight waiting on winners of Ivy league and A10.

Saying that, VU is actually ranking up as my first team out, but a team 2 spots ahead of them is North Texas. In looking at their resume I'd be really surprised if they make it, but they have good numbers when you factor in conf record and road wins, and they actually have 4 Q1+2 wins, and are 4-5 in those quads with only 1 loss each in Q3 and Q4.

Again I don't think they make it, but with the committee being 7 small conf teams and only 5 major conf, well, I've seen a surprise team from a small conf make it.

The other small conf team that ranks higher than I thought was Bradley, as they would be the 6th team out. I only bring them up because their AD is the chair of the committee.

Now, if you take N. TX out, VU is the last team in. The 4 last teams in , from most safe to least safe is Nevada, Arkansas, AZ St and Vanderbilt. The last 4 in the main field are from safest to least safe Wisconsin, Maryland, Providence and Illinois. This echos what Chris said about Wisconsin.

The last 4 out, if you drop N.TX, is NC ST, MSST, Pitt and Clemson. Next 4 out would be (I'll put N TX here) North Texas, Bradley, Oregon and UNC. Michigan, Sam Houston, Rutgers and TX Tech would be team 9-12 (VCU would fall in here if they were to lose later today)

Do i think my formula is accurate, no, but its interesting. I put more weight on SoS, and also give credit for conf record and road wins. Other things included are Q1-Q4 wins and losses, Net Rank, Predictive and Result based metrics.

Whats interesting is how weak the ACC is. Will the committee only put 3 ACC teams in. I don't know, NC State has got clobbered 3 times by Clemson.

Clemson is very similar to VU in for a bubble team they have a good Q1+Q2 record, better than VU's at 7-5. But they have 2 Q3 and 2Q4 losses, and their SoS is 107.

NC St , well they have 1 Q1 team. For a major conf team to only have 1 Q1 win, meaning 1 what most consider only 1 real quality win, that's almost 100% lock not to make it. They are 8-10 in Q1+2 record. Now they have avoided the bad losses with 0 Q3 and 4 losses, but will the committee really put a major conf team in with only 1 Q1 win. And Clemson is watching that closely

MS ST has 1 less Q1 win than VU, and has same amount of losses outside of Q1 as VU, but 3 of those are Q2 and 1 Q3. VU has only 1 Q2, 2 Q3 and 1 Q4. Of course, MSST went 8-10 in conf (9-11 counting SEC tourney) while VU went 11-7 (13-8 counting tourney). VU won the head to head by 5 in Memorial. Its really interesting when comparing the two. MSU has those 2 big non conf wins, neutral vs MQ (which keeps looking better) and home vs TCU (TCU was without their best player) but their overal nonconf schedule ranks 230 vs VUS 120.

Pitt only has 4 Q1 wins compared to VU's 5, they are 7-9 in the first 2 Q's while VU is 10-11. PItt also has a Q4 loss, and 1 Q3 loss to VU's 2. Pitt's SoS is 89 compared to VU's 24.

Rutgers, man, so many have them in, and they do have a good Q1+Q2 record at 10-10, and have 5 Q1 wins. But, they have 4 Q3 losses , 2 more than VU's. Their SoS is 39 and they are 19-14.

Everyone's other than Wisc NET ranking is better to way better than VU's. Of the bubble teams I think Pitts is the closest at 67.

If the NET ranking is important or a decent factor, VU probably is in trouble. If they truly don't really use it in terms of what the teams is, I don't see how VU isn't in. And, if they look at all at conf record, VU will not be in the play in game. Actually if they truly don't put any emphasis on a teams ranking and do on SoS, I think VU and Wisconsin will both make it, and some teams everyone thought was in, like a NC St, Pitt or MSST, are in real danger of not making it. That could affect an AR too.

I know when I do my more subjective pick tomorrow, I won't have Nevada in. They are in by my formula, and Jerry Palms as well, and have a high NET of 37. Wouldn't surprise me though if they do make it even though I'm predicting they won't, they dont deserve it but that dang MW has tricked these computers somehow. While Nevada does have 4 Q1 wins and is 8-8 in Q1+Q2, only 2 of those 8 wins are outside the MW (Sam Houston St and Tulane) and they add 2 Q3 losses and a SoS of 70.

Didn't get into AZ St, they have 5 Q1 wins, are 9-11 in Q1+2, have a Q4 loss but no Q3. Was 2 games above 500 in conf. Fairly low NET of 66. As you can see, they are right there with VU depending on how you look at them.

Its a toss up, I could see anywhere from last 4 byes to last 4 in to last team in to a 1 seed in NIT. Only thing that would surprise me would be anything higher than a 10 seed or lower than a 1 seed in the NIT.

I wouldn't bet on any of them.


In looking at everything, i am guessing

Vanderbilt’s final rèsumè:

NET:81
KenPom:80
SOS: 19
Non-con SOS: 118
KPI: 39
SOR: 48

Record: 20-14 (13-8)

Record in
Q1: 5-11
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 5-1

that didn’t make the NCAAT….there is no comparison Lunardi. VU won 11 SEC games to aTm’s 9. aTm lost something like 9 in a row in February. Their SOS was really really bad. So they won 3 SECT games to lose in the finals that is only one more game than VU.

Only 1 bracket in all of bracket Matrix had Tulsa in the field in 2016 and they got a bid

23 had Syracuse in 2018

15 had UCLA in 2015

3 had NC St in 2014

2011 was a rough yr for Matrix as USC, VCU and UAB had 29, 15 and 11 respectively and all made it.

FL got a 10 seed in 2010 and only had 19 of 82 brackets having them in

AZ had 8 of 61 brackets predicting they make it in 2009

In NET era (2 yrs) Rutgers and ND had low numbers of 84 and 74 so no wild picks in last two yrs per NET Matrix for the negative look.

First of Feb., we would have been ecstatic to know we're a shoo-in for any post-season tourney. Sorry, but not making the NCAAT next season will be inexcusable. And i hope unsurvivable for the coaching staff.

Is there a chance that we are in much more safely than anyone predicts? The NET is bad, but if the committee looks past that, there’s a scenario where VU is in a lot safer than we imagine and gets a bye. I know it’s not very likely, but I was curious to hear if anyone else thought this was possible. I do think if we are in, it’ll be in the last two or three spots.

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Losing to SMU, Temple and Loyola Chicago really damaged our chances this year….

Only issue is we didn’t lose to any of those teams this season.

Tomorrow on CBS at 5:00 p.m. Nashville time. As I recall they announce the overall number 1 seed first and then the other 1 seeds. What I cannot recall is if from there they announce the First Four participants, or merely go Region by Region. Anyway, it can be one heck of a roller coaster ride. If we see Mississippi State's name up there before ours it can be agonizing.

I was the spectator in a family of very talented basketball players and my children inherited my athletic genes. We are big fans instead, and actually videotaped our watching the Selection Show years ago. One year we were headed to Disney World for Spring Break and could not watch the show. My wife got the CBS radio network on the car radio and the very last pairing that Greg Gumbel announced was Vanderbilt vs. Western Michigan in Orlando. I nearly drove the car off the road, and then my kids screamed the game is in Orlando. That meant nothing to me at the time until my wife reminded me of where we were headed. That year Western Michigan was a very popular pick to upset Vanderbilt. Very popular. We wound up going to the game and we never let up for 40 minutes.

I know many on this board are not fans of Joe Lunardi. I am, a big one in fact. How can you not like a guy whose father was fond of saying, "Behind every successful man is a surprised woman." Lunardi says one thing with which we can all agree, and he says it over and over -- no one knows who is getting in except for 12 people locked in a hotel in NYC. Which leaves us all to voice our opinion as loudly as we wish. As for me, I think we will see our name called tomorrow. And thanks to the video recorder on my cell phone I am going to tape it. Anchor Down!

Thomas Jones at the Austin American - Statesman reported after yesterday's championship game victory over Kansas:

Dylan Disu continued his torrid play in the paint with 18 points to cap a remarkable weekend in the heart of Big 12 country. The 6-foot-9 senior school scored 44 total points on 68% shooting in Texas’ three wins at the tournament, and he added 25 boards, three blocks and five steals.

But any hardware comes from defense, Disu insisted after the game.

“We definitely have been talking about it all week to put it on our defense,” he said “We really emphasize that, and we've got to go up as high as we can to the level that we know we're capable of playing it at. There's not too many teams out there that can do what we did tonight. We just left it all out there on defense.”

Disu’s offense was pretty good, too, said acting Kansas coach Norm Roberts.

“Disu has really changed his game, and he's really gotten a lot better,” Roberts said. “He's a big factor because he's big, he can score on a perimeter, he hit floaters, and then he can post them smaller guys, so that's really helped them with an inside presence.”

Had a great tourney as Texas pushes for 1 seed (probably will end with a 2 though but they have a case).

Would have liked to see what VU would have been if he had stayed but it’s working out for him now after a rough season last yr.

Think we all assumed this, but it’s confirmed. If we can keep all our good players we have a tourny team next year.

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On Bracket Matrix:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Chance to make the tournament, per team rankings.

Official game thread, will have limited following ability on my end.

When the team made their run in the second half, you could tell the Vandy fans came ready to support the team. Unfortunately, just nothing to cheer for in the first half. Another thing I noticed was how many moms and dads had their children with them. Vanderbilt sorely needs young adults with children to join the fan base. One of the really good things Vandy does at home games is to award "It's My First Game" certificates to children and show them on the big screen with their award.
The players will get a little rest now and they will be ready for post-season play and wiil play great.

We can totally blame a lot of this game on Stute or Thomas or whoever. But really this goes on the whole team for losing the first half by 24 points. That’s basically impossible to come back from. And I don’t say that with a tone of anger for the team, a lot of that was Texas A&M playing out of their minds too

The first thing to go with tired legs is your jump shot. You can still hustle, rebound etc but the shots will not fall as much as normal. Combine that with a super shooting from A&M and this is the result. We can still make some noise in whatever tournament we are in. Vandy basketball is fun again!!

That should be a little bit that helps our way!

Thoughts for someone who doesn’t follow basketball closely but loves the dance…?