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Baseball Panic Button?

Is it time to pull out the panic button as the Vandyboys drop 2/3 out west? Not saying to hit it, but at least put it on the desk.
Yes I know its March 3rd and weve got 3 months of SEC play ahead of us, but it seems as if its the same song and dance from last year.
1. Bats cant get going
2. when they do get going we leave guys stranded on base
3. Strikeouts Aplenty
4. (and this one is the worst of all IMO) Borderline coaching malpractice lineups by keeping our power bats on the bench.
Never one to doubt Corbs, but the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. And it seems as if we are stuck in a loop of the same song and dance weve been stuck in since 2022.
Thoughts?

Seeding Talk

My good friend Will Warren (@statsbywill/twitter) runs a college basketball advanced stats substack and has really good content. I wanted to get an outsiders opinion on Vanderbilt’s seeding potential.

Here is what he said regarding 8/9/10 seed:

I think most likely is definitely the 8/9 line. To me a 10 only happens if 1) We've all done the equivalent of a polling error on the committee's read of conference strength which feels unlikely 2) Vandy goes 0-2 this week *and* loses early SECT”

Here is what he said regarding 7 seed possibility:

7 I think is plausible but you'd probably need not only to win out but make it to SECT semis. Which I think you guys would have to win two then? I admit I have not fully immersed in nu-SECT bracket just yet”

“If you average it all together (NET, resume, nerd numbers) Vandy comes out as like the highest 9 seed as it stands. If they lean resume a bit more they could be closer to a 7 than you think - currently 26th (mid-tier 7 seed) in wins above bubble which is the hot new metric for the committee”


Plug for his content. It’s totally free and awesome stuff: https://statsbywill.substack.com/

Weekend Rotation thought?

My biggest issues with this team is that I feel like JD Thompson will lose most Friday night matchups, same with McElvain for Saturday, possibly same for Bowker on Sunday.

My thought is, why not steal something from UTjr and go with a bullpen game on Friday night and line up JD for Saturday and either Bowker or McElvain Sunday?

I think this is a crafty way to have Friday be a team day and then we sort of have the advantage for Saturday and Sunday instead of, in my opinion, being an underdog on all three days.

Thoughts?
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Spring Football Starts - Things to Watch

I usually hate these types of articles because every aspect of a football team is important to watch. Thus, so none of you jump me if I miss something, my position is that everything is important, but these are what I am specifically interested in seeing:

Positions I feel comfortable with (and likely do not warrant much discussion unless something comes up)
  • Quarterback (QB1)
  • Tight end
  • Fullback
  • Interior offensive line (we got great transfers here)
  • Interior defensive line (big fan of the returning talent and the new talent)
  • Linebackers
  • Special Teams
Blake's Big Questions
  • QB2 - It was a miracle that Pavia did not get significantly injured last year (knock on wood). His playing style and our offense require him to take hits. I pray to God that we get lucky again, but we need to see one of the backup QBs step up and make a case to start. You heard me right. A case to be QB2 is not good enough. We need someone who can go in and run this offense at a high level. I doubt Pavia is going to see a ton of action during the spring. No coach in their right mind would risk his injury. All eyes need to be on QB2. Who is it going to be?
  • Tackles - Porcher does not graduate until May. He will not participate in spring ball. Bryce Henderson was at practice and may participate in spring ball. I don't love that because more reps are better, especially when learning a new offense. However, this creates a great opportunity to see what we have from the backups and young guys. We need one of them to step up and take a starting job. I think it will be McConnell, but we will see.
  • Wide Receivers - The young burners we have need to set the tone. I love a blocking WR more than most, but we need a deep threat to force defenses to respect us. I think McVay and Brown can be the guys, but there are others who will have an opportunity to make a splash. I expect us to target a spring transfer WR. Like the tackles, the young WRs need to take advantage while they get actual looks and an opportunity to impress. Regarding the older guys, it is time for Jeremiah Dillon and Chance Fitzgerald to step up.
  • Brycen Coleman - He flashed a lot during fall camp but got injured. I would like us to get him in a position to take over eli stowers role after he graduates.
  • Running backs - I will catch s*** for this, but I like Alexander and Newberry. We need 2 more RBs to step up. I would like a speed/home-run guy and am interested to see what Makhilyn Young can provide. He is incredibly fast and might be the missing piece to the puzzle in terms of big-play ability. Johann Cardenas is also intriguing and someone to watch.
  • Defensive backs - We picked up a bunch of new guys in the portal. Our safety depth looks great. My concern is cornerbacks. We need a true CB1 who can lock down top WRs and depth. Mark Davis and Marlon Jones looked promising before medical issues that stopped them from playing last year. I have Jordan Matthews circled as my CB1 to take over during spring. They just need to perform.
  • Defensive ends - Our pass rush sucked last year. We missed that one guy who caused consistent havoc for QBs. I like our returning talent. Sydnor and Capers are solid. Zunk is a good depth piece. If Koht and company are not consistently getting to the QB given the state of our tackle depth, alarm bells should ring. Also, keep an eye on George Okorie. He is a freshman but he is older. I watched his film and he has the speed and twitchiness to become a problem.

Big Picture and Expectations

Spring ball favors the defense. The offense runs vanilla plays over and over, and the defense gets used to seeing them, going against the offensive personnel, and knows the snap counts. I expect there to be offensive fireworks at times, but we will probably not use Pavia much, and Beck won't dive into his playcalling bag. If our defense struggles this spring, that is a red flag. You want a 60/40 defensive to offensive success ratio. Plus, with 2 starting-caliber tackles not participating, don't get anxious if there are a lot of sacks/TFLs. We will not run our new plays/wrinkles during the spring game. This is a chance to install base packages and see who can do what. Our game will be broadcast, and the last thing we want is to give other teams our playbook. Do not get angry if the spring game is not a fireworks show, either on offense or defense. It will likely be meat and potatoes and boring.

We get to see a full year of Steiner's coaching. I was pleased with his transformation of our players, their bodies, and mindsets last fall given that he was only there for a short period of time. I expect our players to look even better physically than they did going into last spring.

We need to get out of spring ball as healthy as possible. I want to see what the new/young talent can do more than anything. Lea needs to give reps to the vets but make sure they are not participating in more reps than what is necessary.

Finally, even though I could write a book on all the spring camp things to know, spring is important because it sets most of the depth chart going into fall. We are all told that all players compete for positions in fall camp (rent is always due logic). That is true for maybe 2-4 guys at most. Spring ball dictates the rest. The tackle/WR positions are still up in the air, but the rotation during the spring game will be indicative of who will start next season. Pay close attention to who starts during the spring game and the rotations.

Baseball **Vandy baseball, football, and MBB players in the Pros Thread**

VandyBoys:

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NFL:

Jordan Matthews: New England Patriots (Injured Reserve)

Zach Cunningham: Houston Texans

Andre Hal: Houston Texans

Casey Hayward: Los Angeles Chargers

Stephen Weatherly: Minnesota Vikings

Will Holden: Free Agent

Spencer Pulley: New York Giants

Wesley Johnson: Free Agent

Adam Butler: New England Patriots

Oren Burks: Green Bay Packers

Ralph Webb: New England Patriots (Practice Squad)

Trent Sherfield: Arizona Cardinals

CJ Duncan: Free Agent

Nifae Lealao: Free Agent

Caleb Scott: Seattle Seahawks (Practice Squad)

Jonathan Wynn: Free Agent

Tre Herndon: Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Smith: Free Agent

Kenny Ladler: Washington Redskins (Practice Squad)

NBA:

Luke Kornet: New York Knicks

Damien Jones: Golden State Warriors

Wade Baldwin: Portland Trailblazers

Festus Ezeli: Free Agent

If I have missed anyone, feel free to add them. @kerrigjl if you want to pin this up top, that would be awesome!!
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WAB - Part of the NET Ranking system

How important will this metric be when it comes to tourney and selection.

In case you don’t know what it is , it stands for Wins Above Bubble. It’s the resume component of the NET (the actual NET ranking is the predictive metric) and is only concerned with wins and losses , not how much you win or lose by. It compares your schedule and how you did with your schedule vs a bubble team defined as a team ranked 45th in the NET and what its record would be vs your same schedule.

Vanderbilt is ranked 28th (41st NET) there now after the win yesterday (I think they jumped 7 spots but not sure as I hadn’t looked at that in a few days ). For some comparison sake Auburn is ranked #1 , Duke #6 (while they are #2 ranked NET), Gonzaga is 43rd (8th in NET), Ohio State 49th (33 NET) Baylor 42nd (31st NET), GA 36 in both , Texas 51 (39th NET) AR 39th (40th NET)

In other words Vandys resume is much better than its predictive Metrics (similar to 2 years ago just VUs NET way better than 2 yrs ago plus no bad losses so far). How will that factor into their selection and possible seedings is anyone’s guess

Player Rankings 3/2/25

Alrighty, it's been a while since I've done one of these and that's a little bit intentional. Considering how tough the schedule was and how much volatility there has been with most of our guys and their performances from game to game, I wanted a little more data.

The biggest, "for instance" I can think of is AJ Hoggard, who most of our fanbase wanted to "throw the baby out with the bath water." I get it too, I really do. If you, as a fan, get too focused on how a guy is playing on ONLY one end of the floor and that looks bad enough, it's super easy to throw your hands up and say, "I'm done with this guy..."

Moving forward, as our team has done, we're getting better... much better. Byington and Staff have done a magical job of using our personnel to get very good at matchups. Both their scouting and in game adjustments are spot on but at times, a guy we've relied on feels like a no show when there might just be a matchup the coaches don't like. These guys are good.

Sitting at 20-9, 8-8 in the best Conference in the history of the Galaxy and with the #1 in Conference Schedule, it's pretty amazing and I think even the most optimistic among us didn't expect that this was what year 1 would look like. We're going to the NCAA Tournament and I'm going to do my absolute best to be there in person to support this group, cannot wait.

These rankings are a combination of what these guys HAVE done so far, but for the first time this season, I'm going to factor in what I see moving forward considering we're 29 games into a 31 game regular season.

Here goes:

1) Jason Edwards - I've spent an hour thinking about this and looking at SEC only stats in addition to season long stats. I have come to the conclusion that there is no substitute for penciling in 17 points per game. That's no small number but I think the most remarkable thing about Edwards is his ability to figure it out each and every night, even when he's shooting like shit and making bad decisions, at some point, he usually figures it out and puts some points on the board. Jason Edwards is a difference maker, his buckets always mean something and he is one hell of a competitor. Edwards is 6th in the SEC in scoring but what's even more impressive is he's doing it in 24.7 minutes per game. For comparison's sake, the rest of the Top 10 is averaging more than 31 minutes per game other than Broome who's at 29.3 mpg. Edwards is an absolute Microwave who shows up each night and works hard to give the team scoring. I think if we're going to make noise in March, Edwards has to continue to be a habitual bucket getter.

2) Devin McGlockton - This guy defies all logic and produces every single night out. Glock is undersized in almost every single matchup and still holds his ground and rebounds. Absolute crafty wizard around the rim, has figured out how to fill the stat sheet despite having very few balls come his way on offense that he didn't create on his own. Devin is 3rd in rebounding in the SEC in Conference games only, that's a magical stat considering he is only playing 25 minutes per game. He's an incredible leader who brings fight, competitive nature and confidence to the gym every night. Moving him down from the top spot was hard to do and I'm not sure I'm right in doing so but it's probably more of a 1a and 1b at this point.

3) AJ Hoggard - AJ brings his body every night, he brings his defense every night, and he tries his best to win every single night. He went through a stretch where he sort of lost his shot and started making a few more bad decisions but when he's good, he's the best player on the court. When AJ isn't at his best, for the majority of the season, he has brought defense and assists even if the scoring has been muted at times. Hoggard is 3rd in assists at 4.8 per game in the SEC behind Zakai Ziegler and Mark Sears, that's telling. Body language has been a bit of an issue for him at times this year, but I do feel like Byington is a good fit and mentor so I think there has been an overall upward trend there. I'm glad he came here, and quite frankly, even though we only get him for a year and the fact that he has been an enigma at times, AJ Hoggard is a Commodore. We ridin' with this guy!

4) Tyler Nickel - Nickel is now shooting 40.8% for the year from behind the arc. Tyler Nickel is 3rd in the SEC in 3 pt shooting at 44.1% for conference only games, remarkable improvement throughout the year. He's shooting 82.6% from the free throw line, that's been a big factor in us being able to close out games. Big #5 has the ability to change every game we play and when he's making triples, we become extremely difficult to defend. Tyler is a very important player for us, I think we're 13-2 now when he hits 3 or more 3's. He's not a good defender or rebounder, but like most of the guys on this team, he gives great effort from the opening tip to the last whistle and that translates to helping his team win in any way possible.

5) Chris Manon - Over the last three games, Manon has averaged 15 ppg, 8 rbs, 2.7 steals per game, 2 blocks and 1.3 assists pg. Manon was a madman at Cornell, an All Conference level player who only played 20 minutes per game and I think he's starting to figure out how to bring his level up to the speed and pace required to be a difference maker. Remarkable how well he's played and if this isn't just a flash, we become impossible to guard. We don't need 15 and 8 from him every night but if Manon can just keep bringing that energy and level out every night, he's just another dude you have to account for. It needs to be said that Chris Manon has been the best player on the team for the last 3 games, all of which were wins over top 25 teams.

6) Jaylen Carey - Jaylen has been a beast this year, at times the best player on the floor and if he can figure out how to bring it every night out, he is an All SEC level player. I'm not sure that ever happens because I think there are certain matchups that he has trouble with but he won't back down and if he can't produce offense, he fights for rebounds and defends as hard as he can. Carey plays within the offense and is a plus passer who is always good for a dime or two.

7) Tyler Tanner - Even at 7, Tanner is a super important player for us. Tanner doesn't have to score a lot because of his defense, ball handling and passing are there every night and having a reliable backup point guard is a huge part of having a successful team. Depending on matchups, Tanner can be the best point guard on the floor for either team. I see Tyler beginning to gain some confidence that he is allowed and even encouraged to use his speed and quickness to create more offense for this team. Tanner has a high ceiling but he still has to learn how to be a catch and shoot shooter as well as somebody who will eventually be able to create for himself. I can promise you that he's working on catching and shooting every day and if that happens to click at all this season, it unlocks another level for this team.

8) MJ Collins Jr - This guy helps us win on the defensive end mostly, where he is often tasked with guarding one of the top two guys and he usually does a very good job. Collins gave us 16 in a win over A&M and 7 vs Ole Miss and Mizzou, so he's starting to bring it a little more. If we get offense from MJ, we usually have a good chance to win. Collins is another max effort guy and a brings fight out every night.

9) Grant Huffman - Huffman has had a rough year from the first Mizzou game on, but he's been showing signs of life. GTA is starting to steal the ball again and even had 5 big points vs A&M and played almost the last 10 minutes in a huge road win in College Station. Huffman still knows how to play basketball but the coaches will be playing him according to situations and matchups from here on out. I don't think we've heard the last from him.

10) JQ Roberts - JQ didn't get a spot in the last rankings but after one of the better individual performances of the year relative to expectations he's back in and he was incredible at Texas A&M. Our 2 bigs were in foul trouble and Byington asked him for 1 good minute, instead JaQualon gave his team 8 great minutes down the stretch and was a huge reason we won that game.


We have, at minimum, 4 more games with these guys, but I'm hoping for 8. Not sure what's possible but when you have a lot of high character guys, a team full of fighters, you learn not to count those types of teams out.

LFG!
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