As we head into the post-Thanksgiving non-conference schedule, here are my takes on what we have seen so far.
Stackhouse wanted to improve the non-conference schedule and I would say that he has succeeded to some degree in doing so. Of course, you can never be sure how good any one team can be projecting from one year to the next, or in the case of basketball sometimes projecting a few seasons ahead.
So, if we view the non-conference schedule to date through the lens of KenPom, and recognizing that KenPom’s rankings are still evolving relatively early in the season, my own reaction is that the collection of teams played so far have represented an “ok” balance of challenging games coupled with some “creampuffs”:
| Team | KenPom @ 11/27 | My “Eye Test” | Game Site |
| | | |
| Memphis | 29 | May or May Not Be a “Good” Team | Home |
| Southern Miss | 193 | Better than Preseason Ranking | Home |
| Temple | 99 | Not Much Better than Average | Road |
| Morehead State | 257 | Bad Team | Home |
| St. Mary’s | 24 | Pretty Good . . . Not a Great Team | Neutral |
| Fresno State | 136 | A Below Average Team | Neutral |
| | | |
| Average | 106 | “Middling” | Not Applicable |
Against these opponents, we have carved out a few noteworthy statistics (Reminder: 363 D1 Teams):
- Robbins is 18th in the country in blocked shots;
- Stute is 32nd in the country in terms of % of made “3’s”;
- Stute is 38th in the country in terms of # of made “3’s”;
- The team is 42nd in blocked shots per game:
- The team is 177th in “3” point shooting % (@33%); and
- The team is (a woeful) 352nd in free throw % even with “Q” @ 100% from the line!
As many of us have speculated, there was no easy “fix” for losing 21 PPG from one player. So, while we can take some solace that we have received very balanced scoring to date from the starters (NOTE: I know Robbins did not start every game and 2 starters were held out versus Southern Miss, but effectively I view them as starters.), the relatively “low” average . . . 11 points per game . . . of the top 4 in combination with 6 PPG from the PG, absent a microwave scorer off the bench, “screams” that the lack of scoring may be a major Achilles heel for this team:
| Player | PPG | Mins | Rebs | 2 PT FG % | 2 PT’ers | 3 PT FG % | 3 PT’ers | FT % | FT’s |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Stute | 11.7 | 28.8 | 6.3 | 31.3 | 5-16 | 50.0 | 19-38 | 60.0 | 3-5 |
| Robbins | 11.5 | 20.7 | 4.3 | 74.3 | 26-35 | 27.3 | 3-11 | 61.5 | 8-13 |
| Wright | 11.5 | 28.5 | 4.5 | 46.0 | 23-50 | 27.8 | 5-18 | 66.7 | 8-12 |
| Lawrence | 11.3 | 26.7 | 3.2 | 63.3 | 19-30 | 33.3 | 5-15 | 65.2 | 15-23 |
| Manjon | 6.2 | 30.0 | 4.2 | 37.8 | 14-37 | 12.5 | 1-8 | 60.0 | 6-10 |
The ability of the team to put enough points on the board is further punctuated by the disturbing inconsistency among the starters as shown below:
| Player | High Mins | Low Mins | Avg Mins | 10+ PTS | LT 10 PTS | High PTS | Low PTS | 20+ PTS | LT 5 PTS |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Stute | 38 | 24 | 28.8 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Robbins | 33 | 11 | 20.7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Wright | 38 | 23 | 28.5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Lawrence | 35 | 12 | 26.7 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Manjon | 34 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Across 30 opportunities (6 games times 5 players) . . .
- These players collectively have scored in single digits one-half of the time (perhaps, not surprisingly since the 4 players in double digits only score at an 11 point per game clip);
- Of note, in almost one-third of the game situations players have scored 5 or fewer points; and
- Individual players’ low scoring in a single game are unacceptably low in 3 instances (giving Wright a “pass” for his back issues and Manjon a “pass” because that is not his role).
The team collectively averages 12.3 assists per game while turning the ball over at a rate of 12.0 . . . essentially a 1:1 ratio . . . very unimpressive . . . with Manjon @ 3.8 and 1.3, respectively (a 2.9:1 ratio).
So far in this very “young” season, Stute, in my view, has been the most consistent performer based on the combination of his team leading rebounding figure plus his 3-point shooting prowess.
- Can Stute stay out of foul trouble and maintain the level of play demonstrated so far?
- Can Robbins play 25-27 minutes per game and keep up his recent stellar play?
- Assuming Wright’s back is ok, can he become a consistent force and avoid the stark “peaks and valleys" in performance?
- Can Lawrence show that he has fully turned the corner off some better play out West (although his “D” needs work) and consistently deliver for the Dores?
- Can Manjon “settle in” to his role as the on-court director of this team and get some support from Lewis (hopefully healthy soon)?
Perhaps, at least for me, a point of observation, albeit it’s very early, is the collective play of the freshmen:
- Minutes – 218 (200 Minutes = 1 Game)
- 2 Point Shooting – 8 for 23, or 34.8%
- 3 Point Shooting – 11 for 35, or 31.4%
- FT Shooting – 7 for 17, or 41.1%
- Rebounds – 41
- Blocks – 5
- Assists – 10
- Turnovers – 9
- Steals – 1
Can someone(s) among the frosh emerge here and become a reliable and efficient scorer as among the upperclassmen “Q” won’t deliver the offensive punch off the bench (and to have “Q” start the game puts us in the hole offensively, in my view) nor will Ansong who, at best, gives us another strong body who can rebound a little (but that’s it) off the pine?
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