Adam Sparks at The Tennessean has an article today focusing on what it takes for Vandy to get into the NCAAT. Personally, I'm more interested in what it takes going forward to HOST a regional.
Sparks says to make a regional Vandy has to:
1. stay even in SEC play
2. win midweek games
3. win 3 games this week
So, let's say we do win 3 games this week. That means we take the Florida series.
So, let's say we do win all of our midweek games. That includes Louisville who is considered to be one of the top 5 teams in the country. The game is also at Louisville which makes a win there very valuable for a team's RPI.
Now, as for #1, if we take the Florida series we'll be 8-7 in the SEC with 15 to go. So far, we've played a pretty tough schedule -- @Ole Miss, @Kentucky, @South Carolina, A&M at home and now Florida at home.
If we do #2 and #3, then #1 is not really a reasonable suggestion. Having gone through those 5 teams (3 of which are considered to be top 10-15 teams in the country) while earning a 8-7 record does anyone in their right mind really think we'd go 7-8 against Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and Arkansas? That doesn't make sense. While Arkansas is quite good this year the others aren't and each one would be a potential sweep if we have a good weekend.
Ga, TN, and Bama are the 3 worst teams in the SEC and we get 2 of those series at home. I think the ABSOLUTE WORST we'd do against those 5 remaining teams would be 9-6 with 10-5 actually more likely.
That would give us an SEC record of 17-13 or 18-12. That could very well be good enough to win the East given how close are the teams are at this point. That, in turn, would give you a leg up in the SECT by earning a first round bye, thereby increasing your chances of making the finals.
So, my suggestion to Sparks is that he change the focus of his article from "getting into a regional" to one of "hosting a regional." If he does that I'd totally be okay with his analysis.
IMHO the only way Vandy does not make the NCAAT at this point is if we collapse and lose an awful lot of games we should win. I don't see that happening myself.
Sparks says to make a regional Vandy has to:
1. stay even in SEC play
2. win midweek games
3. win 3 games this week
So, let's say we do win 3 games this week. That means we take the Florida series.
So, let's say we do win all of our midweek games. That includes Louisville who is considered to be one of the top 5 teams in the country. The game is also at Louisville which makes a win there very valuable for a team's RPI.
Now, as for #1, if we take the Florida series we'll be 8-7 in the SEC with 15 to go. So far, we've played a pretty tough schedule -- @Ole Miss, @Kentucky, @South Carolina, A&M at home and now Florida at home.
If we do #2 and #3, then #1 is not really a reasonable suggestion. Having gone through those 5 teams (3 of which are considered to be top 10-15 teams in the country) while earning a 8-7 record does anyone in their right mind really think we'd go 7-8 against Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and Arkansas? That doesn't make sense. While Arkansas is quite good this year the others aren't and each one would be a potential sweep if we have a good weekend.
Ga, TN, and Bama are the 3 worst teams in the SEC and we get 2 of those series at home. I think the ABSOLUTE WORST we'd do against those 5 remaining teams would be 9-6 with 10-5 actually more likely.
That would give us an SEC record of 17-13 or 18-12. That could very well be good enough to win the East given how close are the teams are at this point. That, in turn, would give you a leg up in the SECT by earning a first round bye, thereby increasing your chances of making the finals.
So, my suggestion to Sparks is that he change the focus of his article from "getting into a regional" to one of "hosting a regional." If he does that I'd totally be okay with his analysis.
IMHO the only way Vandy does not make the NCAAT at this point is if we collapse and lose an awful lot of games we should win. I don't see that happening myself.
