I have a theory about Sunday's ump and I'd like others help in testing my theory.
[I'm not saying it's why we lost, only as a way of explaining a 14-12 score between two top 10 teams, something that is highly unusual.]
First off, I was at the game so my view of the strike zone is limited. Those at home have a much better opportunity to assess how tight the ump's strike zone was. I will say there was a lot of chirping from both dugouts at the ump, more so than a normal game, so I'll add that in. I'd be interested in knowing what the announcers were saying. Less significantly, there was an over-abundance of chirping from the stands about the strike zone, which always occurs, but it was especially voluminous yesterday, particularly in the late innings. There were a few Arkansas fans around me that I could hear and they seemed unhappy as well (this, however, could be explained simply by them being from the state of Arkansas.)
Theory 1) The umps strike zone was extremely tight for both teams.
Theory 2) Vandy pitchers adjusted by throwing more over the plate.
Arkansas pitchers did not adjust and threw their normal game.
Supporting data:
Theory 1: Vandy pitchers threw 192 pitches, a season high, but 62% were strikes (normal for the year.)
Arkansas pitchers threw 217 pitches, also a season high, but only 51% were strikes (FAR FAR below normal for them.) On average, Vandy throws 149 pitches a game so this represents a 29% increase for this one game. I don't have comparable stats for Arkansas. I consider this a significant statistical outlier. Vandy threw 53% first pitch strikes, about 12% below normal. Arkansas only threw 37% first pitch strikes, which I'd estimate to be about 40-50% below normal for them. [If you normally throw 60% FPS, then 37% is [(60-37)/60=.38] 38% below average.]
These stats indicate a very tight strike zone to me.
Theory 2: By "giving in" to the ump and throwing over the plate in search of a strike Vandy pitchers yielded a season high 22 hits (season's average 7.7 a game) but only a slightly above normal number of walks, 6 (season avg. 4 a game.) By "not giving in" and throwing their normal game the Arkansas pitchers gave up 12 walks, by far a season high, and far, far above their game average of 4.1. They gave up 12 hits, above the season average of 7.7, but not that far out of the ordinary.
One thing arguing against Theory 2 is that Arkansas pitchers gave up 4 home runs, while only averaging .75 per game this year. But I think that has more to do with "mistakes" than it does the strike zone (as well as the ability of the players hitting the home runs.)
It's possible that both my theories are wrong, or the first is true but the second is not, or the first is not which then makes the second one a mute point.
I'd be interested in other's thoughts.
[I'm not saying it's why we lost, only as a way of explaining a 14-12 score between two top 10 teams, something that is highly unusual.]
First off, I was at the game so my view of the strike zone is limited. Those at home have a much better opportunity to assess how tight the ump's strike zone was. I will say there was a lot of chirping from both dugouts at the ump, more so than a normal game, so I'll add that in. I'd be interested in knowing what the announcers were saying. Less significantly, there was an over-abundance of chirping from the stands about the strike zone, which always occurs, but it was especially voluminous yesterday, particularly in the late innings. There were a few Arkansas fans around me that I could hear and they seemed unhappy as well (this, however, could be explained simply by them being from the state of Arkansas.)
Theory 1) The umps strike zone was extremely tight for both teams.
Theory 2) Vandy pitchers adjusted by throwing more over the plate.
Arkansas pitchers did not adjust and threw their normal game.
Supporting data:
Theory 1: Vandy pitchers threw 192 pitches, a season high, but 62% were strikes (normal for the year.)
Arkansas pitchers threw 217 pitches, also a season high, but only 51% were strikes (FAR FAR below normal for them.) On average, Vandy throws 149 pitches a game so this represents a 29% increase for this one game. I don't have comparable stats for Arkansas. I consider this a significant statistical outlier. Vandy threw 53% first pitch strikes, about 12% below normal. Arkansas only threw 37% first pitch strikes, which I'd estimate to be about 40-50% below normal for them. [If you normally throw 60% FPS, then 37% is [(60-37)/60=.38] 38% below average.]
These stats indicate a very tight strike zone to me.
Theory 2: By "giving in" to the ump and throwing over the plate in search of a strike Vandy pitchers yielded a season high 22 hits (season's average 7.7 a game) but only a slightly above normal number of walks, 6 (season avg. 4 a game.) By "not giving in" and throwing their normal game the Arkansas pitchers gave up 12 walks, by far a season high, and far, far above their game average of 4.1. They gave up 12 hits, above the season average of 7.7, but not that far out of the ordinary.
One thing arguing against Theory 2 is that Arkansas pitchers gave up 4 home runs, while only averaging .75 per game this year. But I think that has more to do with "mistakes" than it does the strike zone (as well as the ability of the players hitting the home runs.)
It's possible that both my theories are wrong, or the first is true but the second is not, or the first is not which then makes the second one a mute point.
I'd be interested in other's thoughts.
