I suspect that on Selection Monday coaches all over the country are looking at their regional and hoping they don't see the name CAL STATE-FULLERTON. Although Fullerton rarely hosts a regional, they do win a lot of regionals. After that, although they rarely host a super regional, they do win a lot of super regionals. They often seem to find a way to get to Omaha despite not having that great of a team.
Well the Titans did it again this weekend. They went into Palo Alto and split a few atoms while hitting a few splitters, downing #8 National Seed Stanford along the way. And now they get to sit back and wait to see what happens in Long Beach St. besides a lot of roller-blading on the pier.. Right now Texas has the upper hand in that regional (2-0) and, should they prevail, I think it's highly likely Fullerton would actually get to host a Super Regional. I'd also expect they get back to Omaha again.
After a day of 9 upsets on Day 1+, that fell to 7 upsets on Day 2+.
Five #1 seeds went down:
Clemson
Stanford
Kentucky
Arkansas
Long Beach State.
Other upsets were #4 seed Davidson over #2 FL Gulf Coast and #4 Marist over #3 Bethune-Cookman.
Overall records of the various seeds so far are:
#1 seeds, 23-9, 72% wins
#2 seeds, 17-14, 55% wins
#3 seeds, 13-18, 42% wins
#4 seeds, 9-21, 30% wins.
This is likely the most #4 seed wins that I've ever seen.
Davidson is now the biggest surprise so far being the only #4 seed to go 2-0. They await the winner of the North Carolina-Gulf Coast game today. I'm not sure they can beat North Carolina again, but I'm also not sure North Carolina can beat them twice. Oddly enough, if they do win, they could likely catch the #3 seed from the opposite regional in a super regional -- Texas A&M. If that happens, one of them goes to Omaha and there's your instant Omaha Cinderella for the year.
A lot of #1 seeds are in trouble:
1. Kentucky ... The Cats have to win 3 straight now and must beat NC State twice. I'm not sure they have the pitching depth to do that. TROUBLE RATING 6 (on a scale of 1-10, 10 being deep deep doodoo, 1 being a bit of a sweat.)
2. Arkansas ... The Hogs lost a close one to Mizzou State and now must win 3 straight, including 2 over MS. They can do it but it won't be easy. TROUBLE RATING 6
3. Houston ... A&M is looking good here and this is a tough row to hoe for Houston. TROUBLE RATING 7
4. Clemson ... The Tigers are in a world of hurt. They barely beat Greensboro on Friday (without errors they likely would have lost.) After that they have to beat Vandy twice. Vandy is the most impressive offensive team so far in the tournament (considering who they've played, LSU has scored a lot but they've played some much easier competition.) TROUBLE RATING 9
5. Florida St ... FSU gets Tennessee Tech again in an elimination game today. Tech played Auburn tough yesterday after beating FSU Friday. Can they beat them again? I wish they would but I don't think they can. FSU then has to beat Auburn twice and that will be difficult. TROUBLE RATING 6
6. Long Beach St. ... they lost in extra innings to Texas late last night and much now beat SD State today and then Texas twice. I don't think they are good enough to do that. TROUBLE RATING 7
7. North Carolina ... Davidson beat them easily on Friday and now NC must beat Gulf Coast and then top Davidson twice. That is very doable. TROUBLE RATING 3
So, one #1 seed is already gone and 7 more are on the ropes. Likely at least 4 of them lose out. That'll leave the Supers with only 11 surviving #1 seeds -- which, oddly enough, is exactly the average for the past 10 years. Deja vu all over again. OTOH, all 7 could lose out and you'd have only 50% of the #1 seeds moving on although it would be 7 National Seeds. Very interesting.
If I had to guess right now on the Super Regionals, I would say:
Vanderbilt @ #1 Oregon St.
Southern Miss @ #4 LSU
Auburn @ #5 Texas Tech
Texas @ Cal State-Fullerton
Texas A&M @ #2 North Carolina
Wake Forest @ #3 Florida
Missouri St. @ #6 TCU
Kentucky @ # 7 Louisville
SEC! SEC! SEC!
Another thing to keep in mind: on average over the last 10 years, only 3 National Seeds actually make it to Omaha and rarely does one of them win the NC.
Well the Titans did it again this weekend. They went into Palo Alto and split a few atoms while hitting a few splitters, downing #8 National Seed Stanford along the way. And now they get to sit back and wait to see what happens in Long Beach St. besides a lot of roller-blading on the pier.. Right now Texas has the upper hand in that regional (2-0) and, should they prevail, I think it's highly likely Fullerton would actually get to host a Super Regional. I'd also expect they get back to Omaha again.
After a day of 9 upsets on Day 1+, that fell to 7 upsets on Day 2+.
Five #1 seeds went down:
Clemson
Stanford
Kentucky
Arkansas
Long Beach State.
Other upsets were #4 seed Davidson over #2 FL Gulf Coast and #4 Marist over #3 Bethune-Cookman.
Overall records of the various seeds so far are:
#1 seeds, 23-9, 72% wins
#2 seeds, 17-14, 55% wins
#3 seeds, 13-18, 42% wins
#4 seeds, 9-21, 30% wins.
This is likely the most #4 seed wins that I've ever seen.
Davidson is now the biggest surprise so far being the only #4 seed to go 2-0. They await the winner of the North Carolina-Gulf Coast game today. I'm not sure they can beat North Carolina again, but I'm also not sure North Carolina can beat them twice. Oddly enough, if they do win, they could likely catch the #3 seed from the opposite regional in a super regional -- Texas A&M. If that happens, one of them goes to Omaha and there's your instant Omaha Cinderella for the year.
A lot of #1 seeds are in trouble:
1. Kentucky ... The Cats have to win 3 straight now and must beat NC State twice. I'm not sure they have the pitching depth to do that. TROUBLE RATING 6 (on a scale of 1-10, 10 being deep deep doodoo, 1 being a bit of a sweat.)
2. Arkansas ... The Hogs lost a close one to Mizzou State and now must win 3 straight, including 2 over MS. They can do it but it won't be easy. TROUBLE RATING 6
3. Houston ... A&M is looking good here and this is a tough row to hoe for Houston. TROUBLE RATING 7
4. Clemson ... The Tigers are in a world of hurt. They barely beat Greensboro on Friday (without errors they likely would have lost.) After that they have to beat Vandy twice. Vandy is the most impressive offensive team so far in the tournament (considering who they've played, LSU has scored a lot but they've played some much easier competition.) TROUBLE RATING 9
5. Florida St ... FSU gets Tennessee Tech again in an elimination game today. Tech played Auburn tough yesterday after beating FSU Friday. Can they beat them again? I wish they would but I don't think they can. FSU then has to beat Auburn twice and that will be difficult. TROUBLE RATING 6
6. Long Beach St. ... they lost in extra innings to Texas late last night and much now beat SD State today and then Texas twice. I don't think they are good enough to do that. TROUBLE RATING 7
7. North Carolina ... Davidson beat them easily on Friday and now NC must beat Gulf Coast and then top Davidson twice. That is very doable. TROUBLE RATING 3
So, one #1 seed is already gone and 7 more are on the ropes. Likely at least 4 of them lose out. That'll leave the Supers with only 11 surviving #1 seeds -- which, oddly enough, is exactly the average for the past 10 years. Deja vu all over again. OTOH, all 7 could lose out and you'd have only 50% of the #1 seeds moving on although it would be 7 National Seeds. Very interesting.
If I had to guess right now on the Super Regionals, I would say:
Vanderbilt @ #1 Oregon St.
Southern Miss @ #4 LSU
Auburn @ #5 Texas Tech
Texas @ Cal State-Fullerton
Texas A&M @ #2 North Carolina
Wake Forest @ #3 Florida
Missouri St. @ #6 TCU
Kentucky @ # 7 Louisville
SEC! SEC! SEC!
Another thing to keep in mind: on average over the last 10 years, only 3 National Seeds actually make it to Omaha and rarely does one of them win the NC.
