Here is my updated Bracketology through yesterday's games. I put out a post a month or two here and have been updating it periodically along with where I feel everything stands now for us and also around CBB.
For us:
If there is any silver lining to our recent slide, I would say there is a noticeable "tier break" between Wake Forest and the last at-large team being BYU at the moment. I also think the current state of things just shows how massive of a game Saturday is for us as we get a fellow bubble team at home. Obviously not a must-win when 80% of your games would be "statement wins", but this is clearly one of the more winnable ones we still have left. Also worth noting we still close out the season with the other 2 bubble SEC teams with Arkansas and Georgia on the road.
SEC: Seems as though the top 8 teams are practically locked into the March Madness already. Oklahoma and Miss St. also very likely to make it as well. With South Carolina and LSU essentially eliminated from at-large contention, this leaves Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, and us as the last 4 teams that are all squarely on the bubble. Very confident 2 of the 4 make it, my gut even says 3 do but who knows what will happen down the stretch across other conferences and bid-stealers.
Big 10: I'm very confident the top 6 teams in the Big 10 here will make it. Oregon and Illinois also will almost certainly be dancing though their recent stretch is alarming (well for their fanbases). Ohio St. and Nebraska find themselves on the bubble but not necessarily in imminent danger given how weak the extended bubble is this year. On the outskirts, in order are Indiana, USC, Northwestern, and Iowa. Of these 4, only really Indiana is close at the moment.
ACC: Duke is one of the few elite teams this year above everyone else. Louisville is also practically a lock. Though Clemson just took an ugly loss the other day, they also should make it. After that, however, the ACC just has a bunch of bubble teams at best that all have massive resume flaws. Wake has horrible metrics, and SMU, UNC and Pitt are allergic to beating good teams. Every other college is not even worth mentioning as they are all essentially dumpster fires.
Big 12: 5 teams are practically locked into the tourney already. Baylor and West Virginia are in decent shape and should make it as well. That leaves BYU, UCF, and Arizona St. as the only true bubble teams left for us to watch out for. Cincy I guess is also still a long shot.
Big East: Marquette and St. John's are locks. Creighton and UCONN have turned it around and will very likely be dancing as well. The only team left that still has a decent shot is Xavier though they have some work left to do with their 1-8 Q1 record.
Mountain West: New Mexico and Utah St. will very likely make it. San Diego St. is squarely on the bubble and Boise St. is holding on for dear life but is technically alive for now as well given their schedule and opportunities ahead.
WCC: Barring a monumental collapse, St. Mary's will make it this year. Gonzaga finds itself on the bubble without any signature wins and a lackluster Q1 record. Santa Clara and San Francisco have a similar situation to Boise where they could play themselves back onto the bubble with their upcoming schedule but I wouldn't count on it. Perhaps the team that suffered the worst fate was Washington St. that went from squarely on the bubble to practically eliminated with 4 straight losses. While only one of them was horrible (Q4), when you play in a non-power conference, missed opportunities can derail you as much as bad losses unfortunately.
The American and A10 are down this year and will almost certainly be 1-bid leagues assuming Memphis doesn't choke in their tournament or VCU/Dayton gets hot as those 2 still have some hope left for an at-large bid.
For us:
If there is any silver lining to our recent slide, I would say there is a noticeable "tier break" between Wake Forest and the last at-large team being BYU at the moment. I also think the current state of things just shows how massive of a game Saturday is for us as we get a fellow bubble team at home. Obviously not a must-win when 80% of your games would be "statement wins", but this is clearly one of the more winnable ones we still have left. Also worth noting we still close out the season with the other 2 bubble SEC teams with Arkansas and Georgia on the road.
SEC: Seems as though the top 8 teams are practically locked into the March Madness already. Oklahoma and Miss St. also very likely to make it as well. With South Carolina and LSU essentially eliminated from at-large contention, this leaves Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, and us as the last 4 teams that are all squarely on the bubble. Very confident 2 of the 4 make it, my gut even says 3 do but who knows what will happen down the stretch across other conferences and bid-stealers.
Big 10: I'm very confident the top 6 teams in the Big 10 here will make it. Oregon and Illinois also will almost certainly be dancing though their recent stretch is alarming (well for their fanbases). Ohio St. and Nebraska find themselves on the bubble but not necessarily in imminent danger given how weak the extended bubble is this year. On the outskirts, in order are Indiana, USC, Northwestern, and Iowa. Of these 4, only really Indiana is close at the moment.
ACC: Duke is one of the few elite teams this year above everyone else. Louisville is also practically a lock. Though Clemson just took an ugly loss the other day, they also should make it. After that, however, the ACC just has a bunch of bubble teams at best that all have massive resume flaws. Wake has horrible metrics, and SMU, UNC and Pitt are allergic to beating good teams. Every other college is not even worth mentioning as they are all essentially dumpster fires.
Big 12: 5 teams are practically locked into the tourney already. Baylor and West Virginia are in decent shape and should make it as well. That leaves BYU, UCF, and Arizona St. as the only true bubble teams left for us to watch out for. Cincy I guess is also still a long shot.
Big East: Marquette and St. John's are locks. Creighton and UCONN have turned it around and will very likely be dancing as well. The only team left that still has a decent shot is Xavier though they have some work left to do with their 1-8 Q1 record.
Mountain West: New Mexico and Utah St. will very likely make it. San Diego St. is squarely on the bubble and Boise St. is holding on for dear life but is technically alive for now as well given their schedule and opportunities ahead.
WCC: Barring a monumental collapse, St. Mary's will make it this year. Gonzaga finds itself on the bubble without any signature wins and a lackluster Q1 record. Santa Clara and San Francisco have a similar situation to Boise where they could play themselves back onto the bubble with their upcoming schedule but I wouldn't count on it. Perhaps the team that suffered the worst fate was Washington St. that went from squarely on the bubble to practically eliminated with 4 straight losses. While only one of them was horrible (Q4), when you play in a non-power conference, missed opportunities can derail you as much as bad losses unfortunately.
The American and A10 are down this year and will almost certainly be 1-bid leagues assuming Memphis doesn't choke in their tournament or VCU/Dayton gets hot as those 2 still have some hope left for an at-large bid.
