Per DoctorDore's request, I'm working on a piece about whether Vanderbilt has a home field advantage or disadvantage, using the last 10 seasons as a guide.
Before I publish results (and I'm still working on them, but I should have something up by noon)... if home-field advantage is three points, and that works both ways (in other words, you're at a three-point disadvantage if you play on the road) then you would expect to see a six-point difference in outcomes between home and road games, no?
To put it another way, if Vanderbilt and Tennessee are evenly matched, then Vandy would be a three-point favorite at home, and UT would be a three-point favorite at home, meaning there's a six-point swing, and this would obviously apply to home and road games collectively.
I ask this for two reasons:
1. The home-field advantage has always been assumed to be three points, but there is some data that suggests that's slightly overrated: https://www.covers.com/editorial/Ar...field-advantage-overrated-in-college-football
I'm wondering if that's the right number or if someone has better data.
2. I'm knee-deep in spreadsheets and math and sometimes that lends itself to not seeing the forest for the trees. I'd like to publish this when I'm done with it, but I'd also like to make sure my logic is solid here. The six-point swing seems logical but I don't want to make a stupid error and miss something that was obvious.
And in case you're wondering, I'm looking up the Sagarin rankings for each opponent in case there's some random swing in variance as to whether the home or road slates over a decade were significantly different.
Thanks in advance.
Before I publish results (and I'm still working on them, but I should have something up by noon)... if home-field advantage is three points, and that works both ways (in other words, you're at a three-point disadvantage if you play on the road) then you would expect to see a six-point difference in outcomes between home and road games, no?
To put it another way, if Vanderbilt and Tennessee are evenly matched, then Vandy would be a three-point favorite at home, and UT would be a three-point favorite at home, meaning there's a six-point swing, and this would obviously apply to home and road games collectively.
I ask this for two reasons:
1. The home-field advantage has always been assumed to be three points, but there is some data that suggests that's slightly overrated: https://www.covers.com/editorial/Ar...field-advantage-overrated-in-college-football
I'm wondering if that's the right number or if someone has better data.
2. I'm knee-deep in spreadsheets and math and sometimes that lends itself to not seeing the forest for the trees. I'd like to publish this when I'm done with it, but I'd also like to make sure my logic is solid here. The six-point swing seems logical but I don't want to make a stupid error and miss something that was obvious.
And in case you're wondering, I'm looking up the Sagarin rankings for each opponent in case there's some random swing in variance as to whether the home or road slates over a decade were significantly different.
Thanks in advance.
