In 2015, 4 at large teams made the field with more than 12 losses. Each of the 4 teams had a KP top 50 ranking with a SoS in the 20s or better. Vanderbilt's current KP and SoS are in line with those teams from last year.
In 2015, the last SEC team in was Ole Miss. They had only 12 losses but Ken Pom rating and SoS were lower than the other 4 teams.
So, what does Vandy need to do to get in this year? My guess based on this and other data points is 3 out 4 wins down the stretch and they are in regardless of the SEC tournament results. 11-7 in conference is generally good enough to get you to at least 5th in the league. Most of the time it will get you a 4th place or better. If Vandy, goes 2-2 down this stretch they can get in but will have work to do in the tournament. I don't think they have to "win it", but certainly need to get to the semi's and I think they would still be sweating it a little. I think getting to the championship game would be enough in that scenario.
Again keep in mind the strength of schedule seems to weigh pretty heavy on this. A top 30 schedule goes a long way or at least it appears that way. This holds true for the teams I looked at in 2014 as well.
Vanderbilt (2016)- Ls: 11 (4 games to play); KP: 29; SoS: 27
2015 NCAA Tournament teams:
In 2015, the last SEC team in was Ole Miss. They had only 12 losses but Ken Pom rating and SoS were lower than the other 4 teams.
So, what does Vandy need to do to get in this year? My guess based on this and other data points is 3 out 4 wins down the stretch and they are in regardless of the SEC tournament results. 11-7 in conference is generally good enough to get you to at least 5th in the league. Most of the time it will get you a 4th place or better. If Vandy, goes 2-2 down this stretch they can get in but will have work to do in the tournament. I don't think they have to "win it", but certainly need to get to the semi's and I think they would still be sweating it a little. I think getting to the championship game would be enough in that scenario.
Again keep in mind the strength of schedule seems to weigh pretty heavy on this. A top 30 schedule goes a long way or at least it appears that way. This holds true for the teams I looked at in 2014 as well.
Vanderbilt (2016)- Ls: 11 (4 games to play); KP: 29; SoS: 27
2015 NCAA Tournament teams:
- Xavier- Ls:13; Seed: 6; KP: 24; SoS: 7
- Texas- Ls: 13; Seed 11; KP: 18; SoS: 21
- NC State- Ls: 13; Seed 8; KP: 34; SoS: 11
- UCLA- Ls:13; Seed 11; KP: 46; SoS: 23
- Ole Miss- Ls: 12; Seed 11; KP: 44; SoS: 46; Finished 5th in Conf. Standings and lost first game in SEC Tournament
