This has seemed like an ongoing point of conversation so I was curious and wanted to pull some statistical numbers to compare how we're performing this year compared to last year (through 304 games). From a statistical standpoint, it's hard to guage through 4 games as we don't know 1) if Vandy will fall off a cliff like they did after the UNLV game last year and 2) how good/bad teams like Ga St, Va Tech, and Mizzou are this year.
For the sake of this data pull, I removed the FCS games (Alabama st and Alcorn st), as frankly it would really inflate some numbers (which would benefit the defense), but I might pull those numbers if requested.
OFFENSE
This brings us to:
So what this tells us
DEFENSE
This brings us to:
So what this tells us
Finally, I was curious about the quality of opponent YoY, because my assumption was this years' opponents to dat have been tougher. So I pulled the SP+ ratings from last year, and what we have to date this year:
So from this data,
My conclusion (not surprisingly) is that both sides of the ball are better. The offense is doing what they are supposed to do: chew up clock, don't turn the ball over, and score when we can. The defense, while the stats looks similar to the prior year, are doing it against much better competition, which would indicate that it's a better defense.
FWIW, Vandy's final SP+ of 2023 was 110 and as of now (in 2024), we're ranked 69.
Just thought I'd share. I'll do my best to keep this up to date as the season progresses!
For the sake of this data pull, I removed the FCS games (Alabama st and Alcorn st), as frankly it would really inflate some numbers (which would benefit the defense), but I might pull those numbers if requested.
OFFENSE
| 2023 | Points Scored | Yards per game | Passing Yards per game | Rushing Yards Per Game | Turnovers | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency | Sacks Allowed | Time of Possession |
| Hawaii | 35 | 303 | 258 | 45 | 0 | 42% | 100% | 3 | 24 |
| Wake Forest | 21 | 423 | 314 | 109 | 3 | 50% | 66% | 2 | 25 |
| UNLV | 37 | 420 | 337 | 83 | 3 | 39% | 75% | 3 | 30 |
| 2024 | Points Scored | Yards per game | Passing Yards per game | Rushing Yards Per Game | Turnovers | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency | Sacks Allowed | Time of Possession |
| Va Tech | 34 | 371 | 190 | 181 | 0 | 42% | 100% | 2 | 34 |
| Ga St | 32 | 380 | 270 | 110 | 1 | 46% | 100% | 1 | 27 |
| Missouri | 27 | 324 | 178 | 146 | 0 | 29% | 75% | 1 | 27 |
This brings us to:
| Points Scored | Yards per game | Passing Yards per game | Rushing Yards Per Game | Turnovers | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency | Sacks Allowed | Time of Possession | |
| 2023 avg | 31.0 | 382.0 | 303.0 | 79.0 | 2.0 | 44% | 80% | 2.7 | 26.3 |
| 2024 avg | 31.0 | 358.3 | 212.7 | 145.7 | 0.3 | 39% | 92% | 1.3 | 29.3 |
So what this tells us
- Statistically, the offense is actually performing worse through 2 FBS games compared to last year
- The big differences are:
- Rushing yards/game have nearly doubled
- Time of possession increased nearly 3 min/game
- Turnovers and sacks allowed massively decreased
DEFENSE
| 2023 | Points allowed | Yards allowed per game | Passing Yards allowed per game | Rushing Yards allowed Per Game | Turnovers forced | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency (of other team) | Sacks | Tackles for Loss |
| Hawaii | 28 | 391 | 351 | 40 | 2 | 27% | 60% | 3 | 8 |
| Wake Forest | 29 | 484 | 196 | 288 | 0 | 66% | 80% | 2 | 2 |
| UNLV | 40 | 403 | 276 | 127 | 2 | 55% | 100% | 2 | 9 |
| 2024 | Points allowed | Yards allowed per game | Passing Yards allowed per game | Rushing Yards allowed Per Game | Turnovers forced | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency (of other team) | Sacks | Tackles for Loss |
| Va Tech | 27 | 397 | 322 | 75 | 1 | 50% | 75% | 4 | 8 |
| Ga St | 36 | 426 | 269 | 157 | 1 | 56% | 100% | 2 | 5 |
| Missouri | 30 | 442 | 226 | 216 | 0 | 41% | 80% | 3 | 8 |
This brings us to:
| Points allowed | Yards allowed per game | Passing Yards allowed per game | Rushing Yards allowed Per Game | Turnovers forced | 3rd Down % | Red Zone Efficiency (of other team) | Sacks | Tackles for Loss | |
| 2023 avg | 32.3 | 426.0 | 274.3 | 151.7 | 1.3 | 49% | 80% | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| 2024 avg | 31 | 421.7 | 272.3 | 149.3 | 0.7 | 49% | 85% | 3.0 | 7.0 |
So what this tells us
- Statistically, the defense is playing basically the same (statistically)
- The only slight differences are:
- Sacks and TFL has slightly increased
Finally, I was curious about the quality of opponent YoY, because my assumption was this years' opponents to dat have been tougher. So I pulled the SP+ ratings from last year, and what we have to date this year:
| SP+ | Hawaii | Wake Forest | UNLV |
| 2023 | 123 | 96 | 61 |
| Virginia Tech | Georgia St | Missouri | |
| 2024 | 40 | 110 | 10 |
| Year | Avg SP+ of opponent |
| 2023 | 93.3 |
| 2024 | 53.3 |
So from this data,
- On average, we're playing teams ranked about 40 spots higher than last year
- Offense is slightly worse, but playing way better opponents. It should have been a reg flag earlier that our offense last year was having trouble scoring against said teams, but now we know)
- Defense stats are about the same, but playing teams that are way way better this year
- Damn that Georiga state game!
My conclusion (not surprisingly) is that both sides of the ball are better. The offense is doing what they are supposed to do: chew up clock, don't turn the ball over, and score when we can. The defense, while the stats looks similar to the prior year, are doing it against much better competition, which would indicate that it's a better defense.
FWIW, Vandy's final SP+ of 2023 was 110 and as of now (in 2024), we're ranked 69.
Just thought I'd share. I'll do my best to keep this up to date as the season progresses!
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