Below is a detailed offensive and defensive game plan tailored for Vanderbilt men’s basketball to maximize their chances of defeating Saint Mary’s in the 2025 NCAA Tournament first-round matchup on March 21, 2025, in Cleveland. This plan leverages Vanderbilt’s strengths under first-year coach Mark Byington and accounts for Saint Mary’s known style of play—a slow-paced, defense-first team with elite rebounding and a disciplined offense. Player names and positions are based on key contributors from Vanderbilt’s 2024-25 roster, with reasonable assumptions about their roles, and Saint Mary’s key players are factored in based on available data.
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### Offensive Game Plan (Plan A): Spread the Floor, Attack Tempo, and Exploit Mismatches
**Objective:** Force Saint Mary’s out of their comfort zone by speeding up the game, stretching their defense, and creating high-percentage scoring opportunities.
1. **Push the Pace Early**
- Vanderbilt must counter Saint Mary’s slow tempo (one of the nation’s slowest, averaging under 65 possessions per game) by transitioning quickly after rebounds or turnovers.
- **Key Player:** Point guard *AJ Hoggard* (Sr., 6-4), a transfer from Michigan State, uses his veteran playmaking (likely around 5-6 assists per game) to lead fast breaks. His experience in high-pressure games will be crucial to dictate tempo.
- **Execution:** After securing defensive rebounds, Hoggard pushes the ball to wings like *Jason Edwards* (Sr., G, 6-1) or *Chris Manon* (Sr., G, 6-4) for quick outlets. Edwards, a scoring guard averaging 16.9 points per game, can pull up for mid-range jumpers or drive to draw fouls.
2. **Spread the Floor with Perimeter Shooting**
- Saint Mary’s defense excels at protecting the rim (led by *Mitchell Saxen*, Sr., C, 6-10, a WCC Defensive Player of the Year candidate) and limiting three-point attempts (fewest allowed nationally). Vanderbilt must force their bigs out of the paint.
- **Key Players:** *Tyler Nickel* (Jr., G/F, 6-7) and *Jason Edwards* stretch the floor with their outside shooting. Nickel, a versatile wing, shoots around 35% from three, while Edwards can heat up quickly from deep.
- **Execution:** Run a 4-out, 1-in motion offense with Hoggard at the top, Edwards and Nickel on the wings, Manon cutting baseline, and *Devin McGlockton* (Jr., F, 6-7) in the post. Swing the ball to find open shooters, exploiting Saint Mary’s reluctance to overcommit on perimeter closeouts.
3. **Attack with Pick-and-Roll**
- Saint Mary’s guards, like *Augustas Marciulionis* (Sr., G, 6-4, WCC Player of the Year), are disciplined but not overly athletic. Vanderbilt can target them in isolation.
- **Key Players:** Hoggard pairs with *Jaylen Carey* (So., F, 6-8) or McGlockton in high pick-and-roll sets. Carey’s athleticism (a developing big with dunking ability) can exploit slower rotations.
- **Execution:** Hoggard uses screens to penetrate, forcing Saxen to step up. If Saxen hedges, Hoggard lobs to Carey for an alley-oop or kicks to Edwards/Nickel for threes. If Saxen drops, Hoggard attacks for floaters or mid-range shots (his strength from MSU days).
4. **Target Foul Trouble**
- Saint Mary’s rarely sends opponents to the line, but Vanderbilt can flip this by driving aggressively. Their rebounding dominance (No. 1 nationally in margin) relies on Saxen and *Paulius Murauskas* (So., F, 6-8).
- **Key Players:** *Chris Manon*, an athletic slasher, and Edwards draw contact. Manon’s quick first step can bait overzealous defenders like *Luke Barrett* (Sr., G, 6-6).
- **Execution:** Drive-and-kick plays or straight-line attacks to the rim. If Saxen picks up early fouls, Saint Mary’s depth (e.g., *Harry Wessels*, 7-1 off the bench) is less proven defensively.
**Scoring Goal:** Aim for 70+ points by generating 10-12 fast-break points, 6-8 threes, and 15+ free-throw attempts.
---
### Defensive Game Plan (Plan A): Disrupt Rhythm, Deny the Post, and Limit Second Chances
**Objective:** Neutralize Saint Mary’s deliberate offense (60.7 points allowed per game, fifth nationally) and elite rebounding while forcing turnovers from their low-mistake guards.
1. **Pressure the Perimeter**
- Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG) orchestrates Saint Mary’s offense with precision. Vanderbilt must disrupt his rhythm.
- **Key Players:** Hoggard and *MJ Collins Jr.* (Jr., G, 6-4) take turns hounding Marciulionis full-court. Collins’ length can contest his vision.
- **Execution:** Use a 2-2-1 press intermittently to speed up Saint Mary’s pace and force hurried passes. Drop into a 2-3 zone briefly to confuse their sets, then switch back to man-to-man.
2. **Double-Team the Post**
- Saxen (10.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Murauskas (12.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) dominate inside. Vanderbilt lacks a true 7-footer, so they must collapse on entry passes.
- **Key Players:** McGlockton and Carey front Saxen, with *Tyler Tanner* (Fr., G, 6-0) or Manon digging down from the weak side.
- **Execution:** Force Saxen to catch the ball 15 feet out, where he’s less effective. If he passes out, rotate quickly to shooters like *Jordan Ross* (So., G, 6-3, 8.1 PPG) or *Mikey Lewis* (bench spark, 39% from three).
3. **Crash the Glass as a Unit**
- Saint Mary’s grabs offensive rebounds on nearly 40% of misses. Vanderbilt must box out collectively.
- **Key Players:** Nickel, Carey, and McGlockton anchor the boards. Nickel’s 6-7 frame and Carey’s athleticism match up with Barrett and Murauskas.
- **Execution:** Assign man-to-man rebounding duties, with Hoggard and Edwards crashing from the perimeter. Limit Saint Mary’s to one shot per possession—aim for under 10 offensive rebounds allowed.
4. **Force Low-Percentage Shots**
- Saint Mary’s thrives on efficiency, not volume. Make them settle for contested mid-range jumpers.
- **Execution:** Sag off weaker shooters like Ross early, daring him to shoot (under 40% from three). Tighten up on Marciulionis and Barrett (9.8 PPG) to prevent rhythm threes.
**Defensive Goal:** Hold Saint Mary’s under 60 points, force 12+ turnovers, and limit them to 8 or fewer offensive rebounds.
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### Plan B: Adjustments if Plan A Falters
**If Offense Struggles:**
- **Symptom:** Saint Mary’s clogs the lane, and Vanderbilt’s threes aren’t falling (e.g., under 30% from deep).
- **Adjustment:** Shift to a drive-heavy attack. Sub in *Tyler Tanner* for fresh legs and use his speed alongside Manon to penetrate and dish. Run a 3-out, 2-in set with Carey and McGlockton posting up simultaneously, forcing Saint Mary’s to pick their poison—double the post or leave shooters open.
- **Fallback Scoring:** Lean on Edwards’ mid-range game (his bread-and-butter) and Hoggard’s ability to create off the dribble. Aim for paint points (30+) and free throws (20+ attempts).
**If Defense Struggles:**
- **Symptom:** Saint Mary’s exploits the post or grabs too many offensive rebounds (e.g., 12+ in the first half).
- **Adjustment:** Switch to a full-time 2-3 zone to clog the interior, with Nickel and Manon at the top to harass Marciulionis. Double Saxen on every touch, even if it risks open threes—Saint Mary’s isn’t a prolific three-point team (under 35% as a unit).
- **Fallback Strategy:** Foul strategically to stop easy buckets. Send Wessels or Murauskas to the line if they sub in (Wessels, at 7-1, is untested as a free-throw shooter). Rotate fresh bodies like *Jaylen Carey* and bench big *MJ Collins Jr.* to wear down their frontcourt.
---
### Key Matchups to Watch
1. **AJ Hoggard vs. Augustas Marciulionis:** Hoggard’s ability to disrupt Marciulionis’ playmaking sets the tone.
2. **Jason Edwards vs. Luke Barrett:** Edwards’ scoring outburst potential could overwhelm Barrett’s steady defense.
3. **Devin McGlockton/Jaylen Carey vs. Mitchell Saxen:** Containing Saxen’s rebounding and scoring keeps Vanderbilt in the game.
---
### Final Prediction
If Vanderbilt executes Plan A—pushing the tempo offensively and stifling Saint Mary’s rhythm defensively—they can win a tight contest, 68-64. Saint Mary’s thrives on control, but Vanderbilt’s battle-tested SEC experience and Byington’s March pedigree (from James Madison) give them an edge. If Plan B is needed, the game becomes a grind, but Vanderbilt’s depth and aggression could still pull it out, 62-59.
This plan assumes Vanderbilt’s roster remains healthy and Saint Mary’s sticks to their 2024-25 identity. Adjustments mid-game will be key, but the Commodores’ versatility gives them a fighting chance to advance.
---
### Offensive Game Plan (Plan A): Spread the Floor, Attack Tempo, and Exploit Mismatches
**Objective:** Force Saint Mary’s out of their comfort zone by speeding up the game, stretching their defense, and creating high-percentage scoring opportunities.
1. **Push the Pace Early**
- Vanderbilt must counter Saint Mary’s slow tempo (one of the nation’s slowest, averaging under 65 possessions per game) by transitioning quickly after rebounds or turnovers.
- **Key Player:** Point guard *AJ Hoggard* (Sr., 6-4), a transfer from Michigan State, uses his veteran playmaking (likely around 5-6 assists per game) to lead fast breaks. His experience in high-pressure games will be crucial to dictate tempo.
- **Execution:** After securing defensive rebounds, Hoggard pushes the ball to wings like *Jason Edwards* (Sr., G, 6-1) or *Chris Manon* (Sr., G, 6-4) for quick outlets. Edwards, a scoring guard averaging 16.9 points per game, can pull up for mid-range jumpers or drive to draw fouls.
2. **Spread the Floor with Perimeter Shooting**
- Saint Mary’s defense excels at protecting the rim (led by *Mitchell Saxen*, Sr., C, 6-10, a WCC Defensive Player of the Year candidate) and limiting three-point attempts (fewest allowed nationally). Vanderbilt must force their bigs out of the paint.
- **Key Players:** *Tyler Nickel* (Jr., G/F, 6-7) and *Jason Edwards* stretch the floor with their outside shooting. Nickel, a versatile wing, shoots around 35% from three, while Edwards can heat up quickly from deep.
- **Execution:** Run a 4-out, 1-in motion offense with Hoggard at the top, Edwards and Nickel on the wings, Manon cutting baseline, and *Devin McGlockton* (Jr., F, 6-7) in the post. Swing the ball to find open shooters, exploiting Saint Mary’s reluctance to overcommit on perimeter closeouts.
3. **Attack with Pick-and-Roll**
- Saint Mary’s guards, like *Augustas Marciulionis* (Sr., G, 6-4, WCC Player of the Year), are disciplined but not overly athletic. Vanderbilt can target them in isolation.
- **Key Players:** Hoggard pairs with *Jaylen Carey* (So., F, 6-8) or McGlockton in high pick-and-roll sets. Carey’s athleticism (a developing big with dunking ability) can exploit slower rotations.
- **Execution:** Hoggard uses screens to penetrate, forcing Saxen to step up. If Saxen hedges, Hoggard lobs to Carey for an alley-oop or kicks to Edwards/Nickel for threes. If Saxen drops, Hoggard attacks for floaters or mid-range shots (his strength from MSU days).
4. **Target Foul Trouble**
- Saint Mary’s rarely sends opponents to the line, but Vanderbilt can flip this by driving aggressively. Their rebounding dominance (No. 1 nationally in margin) relies on Saxen and *Paulius Murauskas* (So., F, 6-8).
- **Key Players:** *Chris Manon*, an athletic slasher, and Edwards draw contact. Manon’s quick first step can bait overzealous defenders like *Luke Barrett* (Sr., G, 6-6).
- **Execution:** Drive-and-kick plays or straight-line attacks to the rim. If Saxen picks up early fouls, Saint Mary’s depth (e.g., *Harry Wessels*, 7-1 off the bench) is less proven defensively.
**Scoring Goal:** Aim for 70+ points by generating 10-12 fast-break points, 6-8 threes, and 15+ free-throw attempts.
---
### Defensive Game Plan (Plan A): Disrupt Rhythm, Deny the Post, and Limit Second Chances
**Objective:** Neutralize Saint Mary’s deliberate offense (60.7 points allowed per game, fifth nationally) and elite rebounding while forcing turnovers from their low-mistake guards.
1. **Pressure the Perimeter**
- Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG) orchestrates Saint Mary’s offense with precision. Vanderbilt must disrupt his rhythm.
- **Key Players:** Hoggard and *MJ Collins Jr.* (Jr., G, 6-4) take turns hounding Marciulionis full-court. Collins’ length can contest his vision.
- **Execution:** Use a 2-2-1 press intermittently to speed up Saint Mary’s pace and force hurried passes. Drop into a 2-3 zone briefly to confuse their sets, then switch back to man-to-man.
2. **Double-Team the Post**
- Saxen (10.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Murauskas (12.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) dominate inside. Vanderbilt lacks a true 7-footer, so they must collapse on entry passes.
- **Key Players:** McGlockton and Carey front Saxen, with *Tyler Tanner* (Fr., G, 6-0) or Manon digging down from the weak side.
- **Execution:** Force Saxen to catch the ball 15 feet out, where he’s less effective. If he passes out, rotate quickly to shooters like *Jordan Ross* (So., G, 6-3, 8.1 PPG) or *Mikey Lewis* (bench spark, 39% from three).
3. **Crash the Glass as a Unit**
- Saint Mary’s grabs offensive rebounds on nearly 40% of misses. Vanderbilt must box out collectively.
- **Key Players:** Nickel, Carey, and McGlockton anchor the boards. Nickel’s 6-7 frame and Carey’s athleticism match up with Barrett and Murauskas.
- **Execution:** Assign man-to-man rebounding duties, with Hoggard and Edwards crashing from the perimeter. Limit Saint Mary’s to one shot per possession—aim for under 10 offensive rebounds allowed.
4. **Force Low-Percentage Shots**
- Saint Mary’s thrives on efficiency, not volume. Make them settle for contested mid-range jumpers.
- **Execution:** Sag off weaker shooters like Ross early, daring him to shoot (under 40% from three). Tighten up on Marciulionis and Barrett (9.8 PPG) to prevent rhythm threes.
**Defensive Goal:** Hold Saint Mary’s under 60 points, force 12+ turnovers, and limit them to 8 or fewer offensive rebounds.
---
### Plan B: Adjustments if Plan A Falters
**If Offense Struggles:**
- **Symptom:** Saint Mary’s clogs the lane, and Vanderbilt’s threes aren’t falling (e.g., under 30% from deep).
- **Adjustment:** Shift to a drive-heavy attack. Sub in *Tyler Tanner* for fresh legs and use his speed alongside Manon to penetrate and dish. Run a 3-out, 2-in set with Carey and McGlockton posting up simultaneously, forcing Saint Mary’s to pick their poison—double the post or leave shooters open.
- **Fallback Scoring:** Lean on Edwards’ mid-range game (his bread-and-butter) and Hoggard’s ability to create off the dribble. Aim for paint points (30+) and free throws (20+ attempts).
**If Defense Struggles:**
- **Symptom:** Saint Mary’s exploits the post or grabs too many offensive rebounds (e.g., 12+ in the first half).
- **Adjustment:** Switch to a full-time 2-3 zone to clog the interior, with Nickel and Manon at the top to harass Marciulionis. Double Saxen on every touch, even if it risks open threes—Saint Mary’s isn’t a prolific three-point team (under 35% as a unit).
- **Fallback Strategy:** Foul strategically to stop easy buckets. Send Wessels or Murauskas to the line if they sub in (Wessels, at 7-1, is untested as a free-throw shooter). Rotate fresh bodies like *Jaylen Carey* and bench big *MJ Collins Jr.* to wear down their frontcourt.
---
### Key Matchups to Watch
1. **AJ Hoggard vs. Augustas Marciulionis:** Hoggard’s ability to disrupt Marciulionis’ playmaking sets the tone.
2. **Jason Edwards vs. Luke Barrett:** Edwards’ scoring outburst potential could overwhelm Barrett’s steady defense.
3. **Devin McGlockton/Jaylen Carey vs. Mitchell Saxen:** Containing Saxen’s rebounding and scoring keeps Vanderbilt in the game.
---
### Final Prediction
If Vanderbilt executes Plan A—pushing the tempo offensively and stifling Saint Mary’s rhythm defensively—they can win a tight contest, 68-64. Saint Mary’s thrives on control, but Vanderbilt’s battle-tested SEC experience and Byington’s March pedigree (from James Madison) give them an edge. If Plan B is needed, the game becomes a grind, but Vanderbilt’s depth and aggression could still pull it out, 62-59.
This plan assumes Vanderbilt’s roster remains healthy and Saint Mary’s sticks to their 2024-25 identity. Adjustments mid-game will be key, but the Commodores’ versatility gives them a fighting chance to advance.
