With no college baseball games to watch today I decided to spend my time parsing out the postseason possibilities.
If you have little time to read stuff posted on a message board, tire easily, or hate my guts [we KNOW who you are!] just skip to the "Conclusion" at the end.
Using Boyd's World data it now looks like there are only 16 teams nationwide that even have a chance of being a Top 8 seed for the NCAAT.
Vandy is one of those 16.
10 of the 16 are SEC teams.
4 are ACC teams.
The other 2 are Oregon State and West Virginia (who'd have to sweep Texas Tech AND Kansas to make it; that's not likely. So I'll drop them.)
So now we're down to 15 possible teams.
Those 10 remaining SEC teams ALL play one or more of the other 9 teams the last 3 weekends. They can't all survive.
Being conservative (I'm not but we can pretend I'm not Middle-of-the-Road-Roadkill for a few minutes, depending on how quickly you can read,) I'll drop the 10 to 6.
So now we're down to 11 possible teams for 8 spots.
Can Vandy be one of those 8?
Oddly enough, the remaining SEC schedule of games actually favors the Dores. We have 2 home series; only GA and UTjr have the same; all the others have 2 road series against very good teams.
We have 2 home series left, one against an unranked team. Win 4 of those 6 and we're likely in as a National Seed.
{There's a lot of caveats to this -- UK beat UTjr in Knoxville, Bama has an All-American SS and some good pitchers/relievers; we've been swept in Knoxville before the most recent being the last time we went there; Spencer Hawks availability/consistency are in doubt; some seemingly crazy vs.com poster is stalking me and threatening to kill me when he discovers where my seat is and without me at the home games to harass the HP ump it's hard to see us winning any of them although I can send my grandchildren to sit in my seat but they'd argue about who gets to sit in my seat and thus create a scene and get kicked out so that's no help; you'll just have to hope he doesn't find me and kill me.}
The 9 remaining SEC teams have some tough rows to hoe in May:
Auburn -- 3 @UTjr, 3 @Ole Piss, 3 @MO [MO gives you 3 wins BUT harms your RPI; their current RPI is #4, just behind us]
Arkansas -- 3 @LSU, 3 @ Texas, 3 with UTjr [wow -- talk about a tough row; that's like trying to climb Stone Mountain with your bare hands]
Alabama -- 3 @Vandy, 3 @Florida, 3 with Georgia
Florida -- I've already dropped them, but -- 3 @USCjr, 3 @Texas, 3 with Bama [I'd actually love for them to take out Texas twice and thus preserve Vandy's all-time Best SEC Record ever of 26-3 as Texas is currently 18-2]
Georgia -- 3 MO, 3 @Bama, 3 A&M [MO gives you 3 wins BUT likely severely harms your RPI; their RPI is current #2, ahead of us at #3]
LSU -- 3 @AM, 3 Arkie, 3@USCjr
Ole Miss -- 3 @Okie, 3 @State, 3 with Auburn
Tennessee -- 3 Auburn, 3 Vandy, 3 @Arkie
Texas -- 3 @Arkie, 3 Florida, 3 @Okie
Vandy -- 3 Bama, 3 @UTjr, 3 Kentucky
As I alluded to earlier, the 10 remaining SEC teams all face off against at least 2 other team remaining in the Hunt for 8 except Ole Miss. To summarize;
Auburn -- 2 foes
Arkie -- 3 foes
Bama -- 3 foes
Florida -- 2 foes
LSU -- 2 foes
Ole Miss -- 1 foe [however, the do face their rival State at Starkville who just fired the coach the players hate so that's a ticking time bomb for them]
Tennessee -- 3 foes
Texas -- 2 foes
Vandy -- 2 foes
So this is why I think only 6 SEC survive the Hunt for 8.
But we know the NCAAT Selection Committee will never give the SEC 6 of the Top 8. They still want Diversity despite it being out-lawed; do we all have to pretend to be white males now?
So now it's down to 5 SEC teams possible for the Top 8.
That means 4 will be eliminated.
But wait; no way Texas gets eliminated, so it's really 3 that get eliminated.
My list for Most Likely to Get Dropped is as follows, in Most Likely order:
1. Florida, the margin of error for them in their remaining games is so small it's virtually zero, however.
2. Arkansas; this might seem odd but they've lost their last 3 series and could easily lose all 3 remaining series -- leaving them with only 1 good series win but I won't remind you who that was against because it's too painful to type
3. Bama; 3 tough series, 2 on the road with surging Florida being one of those
4. Auburn; 2 very tough remaining series
5. Ole Miss; not the toughest remaining series but 2 on the road, including their Arch Rival and Most Delusional Fanbase Ever (they actually thought Chris Lemonis was a "home run hire" back in 2021)
6. LSU; road series at A&M might decide their fate
7. Tennessee; 3 tough remaining foes but 2 series at home and by the time they go to Arkie the Pigs might already be hanging upside down in the slaughter house with a big pool of blood on the floor underneath them ready for the final, fatal throat slash
8. Vandy; two home series where they are 6-3, one series being an unranked opponent who is a semi-rival; plus, on the last day of the season last year we beat them and cost them the overall #1 seed for the NCAAT
9. Texas; too obvious to even have to explain -- they will not get dropped (how can 1 team be so lucky to win virtually every 1-run game they play? They are 10-3.)
A non-Vandy fan could easily argue we should be #4 or #5 on the list given we've lost road series to both Auburn and Alabama and LSU and Tennessee are "name" programs that hit a lot of HRs that the casual fan soooo loves. But that'd take a load of BS to come up with, although we know both LSU and Tennessee fans have tons of that available, and as good as they are with BS I don't think even they could come up with enough to refute my list.
Conclusion:
Vandy ends up a Top 8 seed, whizzes through the home regional after beating Western Kentucky twice, and then hosts the Super Regional against a non-SEC team.
Get ready to entertain Oregon State, just like we did in 2011, and just like they did us in2022.
I'm wondering though, do they still have any convicted pedo pitchers on their staff? That could impact things, just like the last time we played them when he was "temporarily suspended pending further obfuscation of the facts" and we still lost to them.
If you have little time to read stuff posted on a message board, tire easily, or hate my guts [we KNOW who you are!] just skip to the "Conclusion" at the end.
Using Boyd's World data it now looks like there are only 16 teams nationwide that even have a chance of being a Top 8 seed for the NCAAT.
Vandy is one of those 16.
10 of the 16 are SEC teams.
4 are ACC teams.
The other 2 are Oregon State and West Virginia (who'd have to sweep Texas Tech AND Kansas to make it; that's not likely. So I'll drop them.)
So now we're down to 15 possible teams.
Those 10 remaining SEC teams ALL play one or more of the other 9 teams the last 3 weekends. They can't all survive.
Being conservative (I'm not but we can pretend I'm not Middle-of-the-Road-Roadkill for a few minutes, depending on how quickly you can read,) I'll drop the 10 to 6.
So now we're down to 11 possible teams for 8 spots.
Can Vandy be one of those 8?
Oddly enough, the remaining SEC schedule of games actually favors the Dores. We have 2 home series; only GA and UTjr have the same; all the others have 2 road series against very good teams.
We have 2 home series left, one against an unranked team. Win 4 of those 6 and we're likely in as a National Seed.
{There's a lot of caveats to this -- UK beat UTjr in Knoxville, Bama has an All-American SS and some good pitchers/relievers; we've been swept in Knoxville before the most recent being the last time we went there; Spencer Hawks availability/consistency are in doubt; some seemingly crazy vs.com poster is stalking me and threatening to kill me when he discovers where my seat is and without me at the home games to harass the HP ump it's hard to see us winning any of them although I can send my grandchildren to sit in my seat but they'd argue about who gets to sit in my seat and thus create a scene and get kicked out so that's no help; you'll just have to hope he doesn't find me and kill me.}
The 9 remaining SEC teams have some tough rows to hoe in May:
Auburn -- 3 @UTjr, 3 @Ole Piss, 3 @MO [MO gives you 3 wins BUT harms your RPI; their current RPI is #4, just behind us]
Arkansas -- 3 @LSU, 3 @ Texas, 3 with UTjr [wow -- talk about a tough row; that's like trying to climb Stone Mountain with your bare hands]
Alabama -- 3 @Vandy, 3 @Florida, 3 with Georgia
Florida -- I've already dropped them, but -- 3 @USCjr, 3 @Texas, 3 with Bama [I'd actually love for them to take out Texas twice and thus preserve Vandy's all-time Best SEC Record ever of 26-3 as Texas is currently 18-2]
Georgia -- 3 MO, 3 @Bama, 3 A&M [MO gives you 3 wins BUT likely severely harms your RPI; their RPI is current #2, ahead of us at #3]
LSU -- 3 @AM, 3 Arkie, 3@USCjr
Ole Miss -- 3 @Okie, 3 @State, 3 with Auburn
Tennessee -- 3 Auburn, 3 Vandy, 3 @Arkie
Texas -- 3 @Arkie, 3 Florida, 3 @Okie
Vandy -- 3 Bama, 3 @UTjr, 3 Kentucky
As I alluded to earlier, the 10 remaining SEC teams all face off against at least 2 other team remaining in the Hunt for 8 except Ole Miss. To summarize;
Auburn -- 2 foes
Arkie -- 3 foes
Bama -- 3 foes
Florida -- 2 foes
LSU -- 2 foes
Ole Miss -- 1 foe [however, the do face their rival State at Starkville who just fired the coach the players hate so that's a ticking time bomb for them]
Tennessee -- 3 foes
Texas -- 2 foes
Vandy -- 2 foes
So this is why I think only 6 SEC survive the Hunt for 8.
But we know the NCAAT Selection Committee will never give the SEC 6 of the Top 8. They still want Diversity despite it being out-lawed; do we all have to pretend to be white males now?
So now it's down to 5 SEC teams possible for the Top 8.
That means 4 will be eliminated.
But wait; no way Texas gets eliminated, so it's really 3 that get eliminated.
My list for Most Likely to Get Dropped is as follows, in Most Likely order:
1. Florida, the margin of error for them in their remaining games is so small it's virtually zero, however.
2. Arkansas; this might seem odd but they've lost their last 3 series and could easily lose all 3 remaining series -- leaving them with only 1 good series win but I won't remind you who that was against because it's too painful to type
3. Bama; 3 tough series, 2 on the road with surging Florida being one of those
4. Auburn; 2 very tough remaining series
5. Ole Miss; not the toughest remaining series but 2 on the road, including their Arch Rival and Most Delusional Fanbase Ever (they actually thought Chris Lemonis was a "home run hire" back in 2021)
6. LSU; road series at A&M might decide their fate
7. Tennessee; 3 tough remaining foes but 2 series at home and by the time they go to Arkie the Pigs might already be hanging upside down in the slaughter house with a big pool of blood on the floor underneath them ready for the final, fatal throat slash
8. Vandy; two home series where they are 6-3, one series being an unranked opponent who is a semi-rival; plus, on the last day of the season last year we beat them and cost them the overall #1 seed for the NCAAT
9. Texas; too obvious to even have to explain -- they will not get dropped (how can 1 team be so lucky to win virtually every 1-run game they play? They are 10-3.)
A non-Vandy fan could easily argue we should be #4 or #5 on the list given we've lost road series to both Auburn and Alabama and LSU and Tennessee are "name" programs that hit a lot of HRs that the casual fan soooo loves. But that'd take a load of BS to come up with, although we know both LSU and Tennessee fans have tons of that available, and as good as they are with BS I don't think even they could come up with enough to refute my list.
Conclusion:
Vandy ends up a Top 8 seed, whizzes through the home regional after beating Western Kentucky twice, and then hosts the Super Regional against a non-SEC team.
Get ready to entertain Oregon State, just like we did in 2011, and just like they did us in2022.
I'm wondering though, do they still have any convicted pedo pitchers on their staff? That could impact things, just like the last time we played them when he was "temporarily suspended pending further obfuscation of the facts" and we still lost to them.
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