Lost of numbers about to come at you here but if you hate numbers, just jump to the preliminary conclusions. They are preliminary because there's still a lot of big games left to play before NCAAT time, i.e., 11 a.m. CDT, May 26th, Selection Show with non-everybody's favorite Karl Ravich.
We're going to take a look at Vandy's numbers with respect to making the NCAAT (done deal), hosting a regional, being a National Seed and, consequently, hosting a Super if we win our Regional.
We'll start with our strengths among the metrices.
RPI: #5
This is down 2 spots after losing to Louisville and Tennessee.
But, we're only 9 RPI points behind Arkansas. We have lots of ways to catch-up today but the key one is to beat UT; that'll give us 35 RPI points, whereas a loss would cost us -15. Arkansas can counter this by beating LSU (+35); a loss costs them -13.
So clearly, pull for LSU to win again today.
We are 84 points behind #3 Auburn who has already swept SC so they won't change much; only other games will affect them, but they could lose 19 points.
We are 97 behind #2 Texas. Pull for them to lose to Florida again, which would cost them -51 points.
We are 153 behind #1 Georgia. Pull for Bama to take that series 2-1; that would cost Georgia -38 points.
Also, today, Saturday, the SEC results, other than those 2, will likely be a wash for us. But, pull for Xavier and Air Force to win and hand us 5 valuable points.
Add all that up -- Vandy win, Florida win, LSU win, Alabama 2 wins, X/USAF wins, Auburn loses 19 -- you get:
1. Ga and 50 points ahead of Auburn
2. Aub and 17 points ahead of Texas
3. Texas only 8 points ahead of us
4. Vandy with Arkansas 44 points behind us.
CONCLUSION: #1 is ours for the taking if we win the UT series; that combo would likely lock up a National Seed.
KPI: #3
KPI is RPI Plus -- same measurement except game score differentials matter; losing 3-2 on the road doesn't hurt much; losing 10-0 at home hurts a lot.
We were #1 prior to losing to Louisville and Tennessee. We've also fallen behind Auburn due to their HUGE sweep of SC, but not by much.
1. Texas .451
2. Auburn .440
3. Vandy .431
4. Arkansas .424
5. UNC .422
BTW, losing to MTSU at home lost us a ton of points( .039) so we only have ourselves to blame for that.
These numbers are all so close that we could finish 1-5, but not likely any lower.
CONCLUSION: #1 is ours for the taking if we win the UT series; that, plus RPI, would likely lock up a National Seed [and a high one, too.]
SOS:
Vandy is currently #3. But it's very tight at the top:
1. Auburn .6082
2. Texas Tech .6067
3. Vandy .6048
4. Florida .5875
Auburn was not helped by playing USCjr at home. Florida was helped a lot playing at the road at Texas. We were helped by playing UT on the road.
Auburn can only be impacted by other games today played by teams they played. Their remaining opponents have a win percentage of .622
Texas Tech's remaining opponents are 26-23 and 24-24; they can only go down.
Our remaining opponents have a win percentage of .655
Florida's remaining opponents have a win percentage of .768
Remember, SOS doesn't rely on winning and losing the games, only cumulative wins/loses by all involved teams.
CONCLUSION: Vandy can finish as high at #1 but also as low as #5.
If #1, that WOULD LIKELY LOCK UP A NATIONAL SEED because we'd be
#1 RPI
#1 KPI
#1 SOS.
But, other things matter other than those 3 metrics.
We're going to take a look at Vandy's numbers with respect to making the NCAAT (done deal), hosting a regional, being a National Seed and, consequently, hosting a Super if we win our Regional.
We'll start with our strengths among the metrices.
RPI: #5
This is down 2 spots after losing to Louisville and Tennessee.
But, we're only 9 RPI points behind Arkansas. We have lots of ways to catch-up today but the key one is to beat UT; that'll give us 35 RPI points, whereas a loss would cost us -15. Arkansas can counter this by beating LSU (+35); a loss costs them -13.
So clearly, pull for LSU to win again today.
We are 84 points behind #3 Auburn who has already swept SC so they won't change much; only other games will affect them, but they could lose 19 points.
We are 97 behind #2 Texas. Pull for them to lose to Florida again, which would cost them -51 points.
We are 153 behind #1 Georgia. Pull for Bama to take that series 2-1; that would cost Georgia -38 points.
Also, today, Saturday, the SEC results, other than those 2, will likely be a wash for us. But, pull for Xavier and Air Force to win and hand us 5 valuable points.
Add all that up -- Vandy win, Florida win, LSU win, Alabama 2 wins, X/USAF wins, Auburn loses 19 -- you get:
1. Ga and 50 points ahead of Auburn
2. Aub and 17 points ahead of Texas
3. Texas only 8 points ahead of us
4. Vandy with Arkansas 44 points behind us.
CONCLUSION: #1 is ours for the taking if we win the UT series; that combo would likely lock up a National Seed.
KPI: #3
KPI is RPI Plus -- same measurement except game score differentials matter; losing 3-2 on the road doesn't hurt much; losing 10-0 at home hurts a lot.
We were #1 prior to losing to Louisville and Tennessee. We've also fallen behind Auburn due to their HUGE sweep of SC, but not by much.
1. Texas .451
2. Auburn .440
3. Vandy .431
4. Arkansas .424
5. UNC .422
BTW, losing to MTSU at home lost us a ton of points( .039) so we only have ourselves to blame for that.
These numbers are all so close that we could finish 1-5, but not likely any lower.
CONCLUSION: #1 is ours for the taking if we win the UT series; that, plus RPI, would likely lock up a National Seed [and a high one, too.]
SOS:
Vandy is currently #3. But it's very tight at the top:
1. Auburn .6082
2. Texas Tech .6067
3. Vandy .6048
4. Florida .5875
Auburn was not helped by playing USCjr at home. Florida was helped a lot playing at the road at Texas. We were helped by playing UT on the road.
Auburn can only be impacted by other games today played by teams they played. Their remaining opponents have a win percentage of .622
Texas Tech's remaining opponents are 26-23 and 24-24; they can only go down.
Our remaining opponents have a win percentage of .655
Florida's remaining opponents have a win percentage of .768
Remember, SOS doesn't rely on winning and losing the games, only cumulative wins/loses by all involved teams.
CONCLUSION: Vandy can finish as high at #1 but also as low as #5.
If #1, that WOULD LIKELY LOCK UP A NATIONAL SEED because we'd be
#1 RPI
#1 KPI
#1 SOS.
But, other things matter other than those 3 metrics.
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