My last thoughts on VU and NCAA Selection
- By Bighornsheep
- Commodore War Room
- 4 Replies
I know some read my posts, some don't, but I've got a busy week, and so I'll probably not have time to post much if any more this week.
Basically, I would advise to just ignore the bracketologist, national guys, anyone that predicts VU is out or in at this point. Its all irrelevant.
They tell you what the committee looks at, doesn't look at, etc. They don't know, they don't. I mean, they know the tools the committee has, but they don't know what is important and how each individual committee member uses and puts emphasis on what tools. They don't. I don't. Well, I guess if anyone knows the individuals personally, and have discussed, then they know maybe. Outside of that, no.
I've heard Chris and Blake talk on their podcast. I've listend to GP and Dead Leg on theirs. I've read Lunardi, Palm, quite a few others. They each have their own opinions about what matters and dont. Most are trying to pick or talk about what they think the committee will do, not themselves. That's actually a wrong process, because the committee is 12 separate individuals, that have their own process. They each turn in their on lists, vote separately on each team, they can make arguments or discussions in the room of why or why not they think a team deserves or doesn't deserve to get a bid. They use the tools we all can see if we want, which is teams records, their schedules, all the different metrics weve talked about (NET, KenPOM, BPI, Sagarin, KPI, SoR). How they let each of those influence them is up to the individual.
There is NO SET CRITERIA. If it was, it would be easier to pick (as said not that hard) and seed (hard) teams like the committee would. It really is in the eye of the beholder.
So, what does this mean IMO in regard to VU. It means who knows. IN 15/16 I was very very confident, even before they beat FL in the SEC tourney. Why, because the ONLY thing VU had against it, was their total losses. Everything else was in their favor. Good wins, Good computer numbers across the board, good SEC record, good finish. One thing, total losses, that's what Palm based his whole thing with VU. Only once or twice had a team gotten in with that many losses or something like that. But, VU had the #1 RPI SoS (it was one of the last yrs they used RPI).
This yr, VU has a really good SoS, good wins, great finish, Really good SEC record, result computer numbers are decent. But, their predictive computer numbers are poor. Their total losses are poor. They have what most will consider 2/3 bad losses (though even those bad losses are high bad losses, meaning all are close to moving up a tier). More things a committee member could value as more important.
*Another important note, the way the committee does things, and especially with VU having the late game, each game in the SEC tourney for them (hoping they get more than one) will mean less and less. By the time they have played their first game, and I'm not kidding here, this is pretty much a fact, of the 35 at large teams, a good chance around 30 of them are already set, before they even play their first game. By the time they play game 2 (if they get that), the committee may be down to 0, 1 , 2 , maybe 3 teams left. But , seriously , they could already have the field set outside of contingencies. In other words, all these bracket folks that say 2 wins and VU is in, I'm not saying its not 100% true, but there is a very real chance VU is already in or out before that late Friday game is even played (outside of VU winning the SEC tourney).
So, if you are putting stock in the SEC tourney, don't, decision for VU odds are will already be made before their first game, and even greater odds before their 2nd game if they get it. The KY game would almost be meaningless (in terms of getting in or not, if they are in, it could matter for seeding, but not much, just a little, and I emphasize two).
So, really, look at everything VU now ,and make your prediction off of what they have done to this point, and that will more than likely be it.
As a VU fan, I'm just hoping they look more at results and SoS, look at how strong VU finished, their close losses, and when getting down to certain teams, the committee really looks at VU compared to some of these other teams, especially the 3 SEC teams I continue to mention (Auburn, AR and MSST). I've looked and looked comparing the 4 teams and I just don't see how any unbiased person can say any of those 3 teams have better resumes/have done more than VU. I strongly feel VU has done more than all 3 of those teams (and actually I'd probably rank those teams opposite of where most have them now, I'd put 1. VU , 2. MSST , 3. Auburn and 4. Arkansas. And, thats just me, that is not me trying to say what the committee will do, thats looking at their accomplishments).
The committee is 12 individuals making 12 individual decisions with the tools/data/results they have, no set criteria, they don't pick/seed by NET rankings, they pick/seed by their own thoughts. Will VU get in, I wish I knew. Personally I think they have more than earned it, and this isn't after just looking at what VU has done, but other teams, but sadly I'm not one of the 12 folks in the room.
Basically, I would advise to just ignore the bracketologist, national guys, anyone that predicts VU is out or in at this point. Its all irrelevant.
They tell you what the committee looks at, doesn't look at, etc. They don't know, they don't. I mean, they know the tools the committee has, but they don't know what is important and how each individual committee member uses and puts emphasis on what tools. They don't. I don't. Well, I guess if anyone knows the individuals personally, and have discussed, then they know maybe. Outside of that, no.
I've heard Chris and Blake talk on their podcast. I've listend to GP and Dead Leg on theirs. I've read Lunardi, Palm, quite a few others. They each have their own opinions about what matters and dont. Most are trying to pick or talk about what they think the committee will do, not themselves. That's actually a wrong process, because the committee is 12 separate individuals, that have their own process. They each turn in their on lists, vote separately on each team, they can make arguments or discussions in the room of why or why not they think a team deserves or doesn't deserve to get a bid. They use the tools we all can see if we want, which is teams records, their schedules, all the different metrics weve talked about (NET, KenPOM, BPI, Sagarin, KPI, SoR). How they let each of those influence them is up to the individual.
There is NO SET CRITERIA. If it was, it would be easier to pick (as said not that hard) and seed (hard) teams like the committee would. It really is in the eye of the beholder.
So, what does this mean IMO in regard to VU. It means who knows. IN 15/16 I was very very confident, even before they beat FL in the SEC tourney. Why, because the ONLY thing VU had against it, was their total losses. Everything else was in their favor. Good wins, Good computer numbers across the board, good SEC record, good finish. One thing, total losses, that's what Palm based his whole thing with VU. Only once or twice had a team gotten in with that many losses or something like that. But, VU had the #1 RPI SoS (it was one of the last yrs they used RPI).
This yr, VU has a really good SoS, good wins, great finish, Really good SEC record, result computer numbers are decent. But, their predictive computer numbers are poor. Their total losses are poor. They have what most will consider 2/3 bad losses (though even those bad losses are high bad losses, meaning all are close to moving up a tier). More things a committee member could value as more important.
*Another important note, the way the committee does things, and especially with VU having the late game, each game in the SEC tourney for them (hoping they get more than one) will mean less and less. By the time they have played their first game, and I'm not kidding here, this is pretty much a fact, of the 35 at large teams, a good chance around 30 of them are already set, before they even play their first game. By the time they play game 2 (if they get that), the committee may be down to 0, 1 , 2 , maybe 3 teams left. But , seriously , they could already have the field set outside of contingencies. In other words, all these bracket folks that say 2 wins and VU is in, I'm not saying its not 100% true, but there is a very real chance VU is already in or out before that late Friday game is even played (outside of VU winning the SEC tourney).
So, if you are putting stock in the SEC tourney, don't, decision for VU odds are will already be made before their first game, and even greater odds before their 2nd game if they get it. The KY game would almost be meaningless (in terms of getting in or not, if they are in, it could matter for seeding, but not much, just a little, and I emphasize two).
So, really, look at everything VU now ,and make your prediction off of what they have done to this point, and that will more than likely be it.
As a VU fan, I'm just hoping they look more at results and SoS, look at how strong VU finished, their close losses, and when getting down to certain teams, the committee really looks at VU compared to some of these other teams, especially the 3 SEC teams I continue to mention (Auburn, AR and MSST). I've looked and looked comparing the 4 teams and I just don't see how any unbiased person can say any of those 3 teams have better resumes/have done more than VU. I strongly feel VU has done more than all 3 of those teams (and actually I'd probably rank those teams opposite of where most have them now, I'd put 1. VU , 2. MSST , 3. Auburn and 4. Arkansas. And, thats just me, that is not me trying to say what the committee will do, thats looking at their accomplishments).
The committee is 12 individuals making 12 individual decisions with the tools/data/results they have, no set criteria, they don't pick/seed by NET rankings, they pick/seed by their own thoughts. Will VU get in, I wish I knew. Personally I think they have more than earned it, and this isn't after just looking at what VU has done, but other teams, but sadly I'm not one of the 12 folks in the room.
