I will admit before I start that I am primarily a basketball fan. I will always root for the Dores, but I don’t watch much baseball, and I watch no football.
With that out of the way, KenPom ranked the basketball team this year at 64. KenPom ranks the basketball team at 58 overall—the historical rankings go back to 1997. (I haven’t calculated it to figure out whether that number is the average or the mean, and I am not going to do a standard deviation.)
Since 2012, only four Vandy MBB teams have had a higher KenPom rating than this year’s team: in 2012 (16), 2015 (37), 2016 (35), and 2017 (33). This year’s team obviously fares worse when one goes back to 2002, due to Stallings’ run through most of the aughts: 2004 (23), 2005 (33), 2006 (49), 2007 (43), 2008 (56), 2010 (36), 2011 (33).
Who knows that next year will bring. If the transfers are done, the team has not lost a lot and it has yet to gain anything. Vandy has certainly fared no worse or better than much of the SEC: Alabama (3 transfers); Arkansas (2 transfers); Florida (1 transfer, 1 five-star decommit, and 1 declaring for draft); LSU (11 transfers, 3 decommits, including 2 five-stars, with Tari Eason declaring and transferring); Miss State (2 transfers, 1 decommit, and 1 declaring for NBA draft); Missouri (6 transfers and 1 decommit); Ole Miss (5 transfers); SC (5 transfers and 1 decommit); UT (2 transfers and 1 declaring for NBA draft). Of the teams with a smaller number of decommits, I am sure there are plenty of players who haven’t yet declared for the draft (Auburn with 2 and 1 transfer); Florida (1 likely to declare and Appleby probably playing somewhere else); and Kentucky (2 players likely to declare and a third on a student visa doing who knows what). It’s too hard to figure out who has eligibility with the COVID year, but I am sure there is plenty of graduating talent as well. Of course, Vandy still needs a point guard, even in the unlikely event Pippen returns, and probably a second backcourt player anyway. And while I don’t think Robbins will follow Conroy to Citadel (if that’s still a thing), he certainly could. And I don’t think any of the freshmen are immediate impact players. Dort, Shelby, and Smith haven’t looked overhwelming in the YouTube videos I’ve watched, though the two forwards are unquestionably a step up from Frank. While several teams have more immediate talent coming in, only Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky’s classes are definitively better. All that to say, at this point, I don’t think Vandy is any worse off now than it was at the beginning of the year, and it might be better positioned.
I’m sure someone has written a post like this before. If not, though, here you go.
Edit: minor grammar. For some reason, my posts on this board get cocked up a lot. I guess my autocorrect doesn’t like it.
With that out of the way, KenPom ranked the basketball team this year at 64. KenPom ranks the basketball team at 58 overall—the historical rankings go back to 1997. (I haven’t calculated it to figure out whether that number is the average or the mean, and I am not going to do a standard deviation.)
Since 2012, only four Vandy MBB teams have had a higher KenPom rating than this year’s team: in 2012 (16), 2015 (37), 2016 (35), and 2017 (33). This year’s team obviously fares worse when one goes back to 2002, due to Stallings’ run through most of the aughts: 2004 (23), 2005 (33), 2006 (49), 2007 (43), 2008 (56), 2010 (36), 2011 (33).
Who knows that next year will bring. If the transfers are done, the team has not lost a lot and it has yet to gain anything. Vandy has certainly fared no worse or better than much of the SEC: Alabama (3 transfers); Arkansas (2 transfers); Florida (1 transfer, 1 five-star decommit, and 1 declaring for draft); LSU (11 transfers, 3 decommits, including 2 five-stars, with Tari Eason declaring and transferring); Miss State (2 transfers, 1 decommit, and 1 declaring for NBA draft); Missouri (6 transfers and 1 decommit); Ole Miss (5 transfers); SC (5 transfers and 1 decommit); UT (2 transfers and 1 declaring for NBA draft). Of the teams with a smaller number of decommits, I am sure there are plenty of players who haven’t yet declared for the draft (Auburn with 2 and 1 transfer); Florida (1 likely to declare and Appleby probably playing somewhere else); and Kentucky (2 players likely to declare and a third on a student visa doing who knows what). It’s too hard to figure out who has eligibility with the COVID year, but I am sure there is plenty of graduating talent as well. Of course, Vandy still needs a point guard, even in the unlikely event Pippen returns, and probably a second backcourt player anyway. And while I don’t think Robbins will follow Conroy to Citadel (if that’s still a thing), he certainly could. And I don’t think any of the freshmen are immediate impact players. Dort, Shelby, and Smith haven’t looked overhwelming in the YouTube videos I’ve watched, though the two forwards are unquestionably a step up from Frank. While several teams have more immediate talent coming in, only Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky’s classes are definitively better. All that to say, at this point, I don’t think Vandy is any worse off now than it was at the beginning of the year, and it might be better positioned.
I’m sure someone has written a post like this before. If not, though, here you go.
Edit: minor grammar. For some reason, my posts on this board get cocked up a lot. I guess my autocorrect doesn’t like it.
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