Scroll down to the most recent post, for the latest update
If everything plays out as Mr. Ken Pomeroy projects in his head to head projections (this is slightly different than using his final prediction which is based on some averages), here is what the final standing would look like. Don't worry, it will not end this way but this is about the time each year that it gets fun and you can know who to root for in order to give us the best possible position.
Double Byes:
1) Kentucky 18-0
2) Arkansas 13-5
3) Texas A&M 12-6
4) LSU 11-7 (would hold 3 way tiebreaker with UGA and Miss)
Playing Thursday:
5) UGA 11-7
6) Ole Miss 11-7
7) Vanderbilt 8-10 (would hold 3 way tiebreaker with AL and FL)
8) Florida 8-10 (2nd in 3 way tiebreaker)
9) Alabama 8-10 (3rd in 3 way tiebreaker)
10) UT 7-11
Playing Wednesday:
11) USC 6-12 (would hold tiebreaker)
12) MSU 6-12
13) Auburn 4-14
14) Mizzou 3-15
Vanderbilt Notes and Assumptions: KenPom has us winning the next 3 games and dropping the finale to Ole Miss. The major flaw I see is it has a broken down Florida team beating both UT and A&M down the stretch. Without factoring for the injuries and suspension, I don't see this happening. If let's say Florida loses to UT or even loses out they will drop out of the tiebreaker. This doesn't impact Vandy's seeding. What would happen is Alabama and Tennessee would each move up a spot and Florida would drop to 10.
The net story here, is Vandy has a lot of control on how they will seed. They happen to own 3 way tiebreakers in the two scenarios above. That is a bit "luck" driven, as most head to head tie breakers they do not own, due to not beating anyone in the top 6 so a split with someone head to head would then move to how each fared against the top teams in the league.
In case you are not keeping up, this would put Vandy at 18-13 and also would have Alabama at 18-13 going into the tournament. Florida would be at 15-16 and Tennessee 15-15. If SEC gets 6 in NCAAs, then Alabama and Vanderbilt would be the next two in line for the NIT. To further that point IF this scenario plays out and both Alabama and Vanderbilt win the opening game of the SEC tournament, both would have 19 wins but even bigger, eliminating both UT and Florida from the NIT possibilities (technically not, even though no team has ever made it sub .500 overall record since the change in 2006). This is why I like that fact that Mizzou beat Florida. It gave them that extra loss.
Of course none of this means squat unless we win in Knoxville today. Hopefully this gives you something to think about.
This post was edited on 2/26 10:47 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/2 9:33 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/2 9:57 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/4 11:33 PM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/6 1:07 PM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/7 1:55 PM by VUSeth
The Bracket
If everything plays out as Mr. Ken Pomeroy projects in his head to head projections (this is slightly different than using his final prediction which is based on some averages), here is what the final standing would look like. Don't worry, it will not end this way but this is about the time each year that it gets fun and you can know who to root for in order to give us the best possible position.
Double Byes:
1) Kentucky 18-0
2) Arkansas 13-5
3) Texas A&M 12-6
4) LSU 11-7 (would hold 3 way tiebreaker with UGA and Miss)
Playing Thursday:
5) UGA 11-7
6) Ole Miss 11-7
7) Vanderbilt 8-10 (would hold 3 way tiebreaker with AL and FL)
8) Florida 8-10 (2nd in 3 way tiebreaker)
9) Alabama 8-10 (3rd in 3 way tiebreaker)
10) UT 7-11
Playing Wednesday:
11) USC 6-12 (would hold tiebreaker)
12) MSU 6-12
13) Auburn 4-14
14) Mizzou 3-15
Vanderbilt Notes and Assumptions: KenPom has us winning the next 3 games and dropping the finale to Ole Miss. The major flaw I see is it has a broken down Florida team beating both UT and A&M down the stretch. Without factoring for the injuries and suspension, I don't see this happening. If let's say Florida loses to UT or even loses out they will drop out of the tiebreaker. This doesn't impact Vandy's seeding. What would happen is Alabama and Tennessee would each move up a spot and Florida would drop to 10.
The net story here, is Vandy has a lot of control on how they will seed. They happen to own 3 way tiebreakers in the two scenarios above. That is a bit "luck" driven, as most head to head tie breakers they do not own, due to not beating anyone in the top 6 so a split with someone head to head would then move to how each fared against the top teams in the league.
In case you are not keeping up, this would put Vandy at 18-13 and also would have Alabama at 18-13 going into the tournament. Florida would be at 15-16 and Tennessee 15-15. If SEC gets 6 in NCAAs, then Alabama and Vanderbilt would be the next two in line for the NIT. To further that point IF this scenario plays out and both Alabama and Vanderbilt win the opening game of the SEC tournament, both would have 19 wins but even bigger, eliminating both UT and Florida from the NIT possibilities (technically not, even though no team has ever made it sub .500 overall record since the change in 2006). This is why I like that fact that Mizzou beat Florida. It gave them that extra loss.
Of course none of this means squat unless we win in Knoxville today. Hopefully this gives you something to think about.
This post was edited on 2/26 10:47 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/2 9:33 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/2 9:57 AM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/4 11:33 PM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/6 1:07 PM by VUSeth
This post was edited on 3/7 1:55 PM by VUSeth
The Bracket
