The past three years, Saben Lee has been the steadying factor for the Vanderbilt Basketball program. No matter the score or outcome, smart money would be on Lee to leave everything on the floor and stuff the stat sheet.
Now the question is whether he will be in a black and gold uniform for a fourth season. Lee has declared for the NBA Draft, but has not signed with an agent, thus leaving the door open for a return.
To get further clarification on what his draft stock looks like we turn to Derek Murray. He wears several hats in the area of professional prospect evaluation. He does the video scouting for Babcock Hoops, and he is a scout for Professional Basketball Combine.
Q: What will NBA front offices see as Saben's strengths?
Murray: "Saben is a tremendous athlete. He's got good quick twitch athleticism as well. He has a good first step with the ball in his hands. It's downhill really, really quickly. He's got underrated power. He's got a really strong lower body. Those are things I like to see in him. He attacks the rim really well, can elevate, really puts pressure on a defense, and creates for others. At the next level I like him as an attacking point guard who can play with a high motor and get downhill at defenses. If you surround him with any kind of shooting he's going to be able to drive and kick to guys and create a lot of open looks. He's got what a lot of guys call gravity. When he drives the lane you have no choice but to collapse on him, because he will beat you one on one. So kicking to shooters and putting shooters around him is going to be huge."
Q: Saben is an elite athlete in the Southeastern Conference, but I know the guys in the NBA are on a different level. Will he still be an elite athlete if he gets to the league?
Murray: "I'm not going to call him one of the better athletes. Most guys when they come into the league I would say are at the bottom tier of athleticism and they have to work their way up. I would at least consider him middle of the pack if he went on an NBA floor right now. So even though it's not at the top, I think he's athletic enough to have a step up on other guys coming in even in this class.
I think at the pro level he's going to have to improve his three-point shooting. It does need some work. This year he was at 32.2%. It's just enough where somebody has to respect it. They can't sag off of it. But at the NBA level and that deeper line he is going to have make that improvement. His seventy-five percent free throw percentage is a fairly good indicator. I think he'll at least be able to shoot at a league average level."
Q: Going into weaknesses, anything besides the outside shooting?
Murray: "Yeah, the big one for me are his turnovers. He had 3.1 turnovers per game this year. There were two things that I kind of think contributed to that. One, his dribble can be really loose. Sometimes, especially in the pick and roll, he can dribble away from his body. That allows defenders to throw their hands in there and knock it out his possession. His handle is going to have to get tighter. When he drives he can be fairly careless with the ball. He'll jump in the lane, whether that's because he gets pushed baseline or he'll jump at the rim before he even knows where he is going to pass. At that point on the way down he'll kick it out right to the other team. The biggest things for me are the turnovers, and then defensive switchability can be an issue.
He's small enough to where if he gets a big on him the big is pretty much going to score. I know know necessarily how he can improve on that if he doesn't get any bigger. But even if it's just technique you don't want to be a liability."
Q: Does he have a true position? Is he in-between a one and a two, and is that a reason he has had the turnovers because he hasn't gotten to play to that role yet?
Murray: "I evaluate Lee as a one. I see him as a point guard mostly because of his shot. He's 6-2 and has a hitch in his shot. I wouldn't want him to be my shooting guard. I don't think that is ever going to be his role. With the amount of pressure he can put on you I envision him as a one. He's got good vision and makes good plays for others when he's not so out of control in the air that he's making turnovers. I like him as a one if you have shooters around him he can be a good facilitator."
Q: What is the starting height a shooting guard in the NBA needs to be?
Murray: "There are actually a handful of guys we look at in the NBA and ask if he is going to be a one or a two, and then we look at how tall they are. If you are going to be a shooting guard for me I would want you to be at least 6-foot--4. I'd prefer you to be in the five, six, seven range, because I want you to be pretty big, So I look at Saben Lee, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Kira Lewis Jr. They are all like 6-foot-2 or three. I evaluate them all as point guards. It's not impossible, but in my mind if you are a shooting guard I want you at least 6-foot-4."
Q: Can he get drafted this time around, and if so where could he go?
Murray: "He's going to be one of those unique guys where there is not necessarily a consensus on him if he were to declare. ESPN has him in the nineties, but a lot of other people have him considerably higher. I have him at fifty-one, because I buy the athleticism which is natural. If there is a kid who isn't an athlete but is really smart, I can't teach you that. He's got the athleticism. He can get downhill. It's the shooting if we could just fix that.
I think he can be a solid point guard in the NBA even if he's not a regular starter for his whole career. I think you can get good rotation minutes out of him at the one because he's athletic, can get downhill, and put pressure on defenses. There are some organizations who have him as a second round grade. There are some who have him in that eighty ro ninety, who believe he should go back to school and compete to be a first round pick next year. So I think it's going to be fully dependent on what the individual organization believes in him and how much they have scouted him. So that's going to be up to him and his camp to figure out. I would hate for him to come out, get passed on, and have to go somewhere as an undrafted free agent, because I think he is better than that."
Q: That leads to this question. You'll see guys all the time where people say they need to come back to college and improve. But the coaches only get twenty hours per week max with them. In the pros it's unlimited. Can they get more work and skill development in the professional ranks?
Murray: "I think you have a better chance of improving your skill set and your game by going to the professional level and getting professional level coaching. But there are a lot of Division One basketball schools that have former professional coaches in their development rooms. It's dependent on where you are. Look at Vanderbilt. They have guys that you would be comfortable learning from because of their professional histories.The guys they put in the league, or have played with, or have coached before, I think he's in a spot if he came back to school he's not looking at a negative from a development standpoint.
I used to think about it in just basketball terms, but actually we don't know all of the players' home situations either. Even though fifty to seventy grand isn't a ton of money to some people, if a kid's family life at home is pretty rough then you look at it as a non-basketball decision. They need to send money to their family so they're going to go do this. It is all unique. It is a case by case situation, but I generally lean that you have a better chance of improving your game and skill-set at least in a G-League camp. That's where all of your time is devoted to."
Q: Can he up his draft stock if he comes back for his senior year?
Murray: "If he came back and let's say he had a season where he shot in the high thirties from three, he's got a ceiling of the end of the first round. Right now I think the shooting is the only glaring thing I have an issue with. That's an improvement area. But again, I'm encouraged by the free throw percentage that he can do that as an indicator. I think if he came back to school you're looking at a late first to mid second, depending on the shooting. I think the shooting will be the swing factor that it all comes down to."
Q: What would your advice be to him or what would you do if you were in his shoes?
Murray: "(Laughing) I like him enough to where if he was in the draft and I'm in the second round, I'm going to take him. I may be irrationally higher on him than a lot of the others. My advice would probably be if he doesn't get a promise from a team in a range that he's comfortable with then go back to school. I wouldn't declare for this blindly, but if he gets a promise in a range where he's comfortable then come on out. But otherwise, go back."
Now the question is whether he will be in a black and gold uniform for a fourth season. Lee has declared for the NBA Draft, but has not signed with an agent, thus leaving the door open for a return.
To get further clarification on what his draft stock looks like we turn to Derek Murray. He wears several hats in the area of professional prospect evaluation. He does the video scouting for Babcock Hoops, and he is a scout for Professional Basketball Combine.
Q: What will NBA front offices see as Saben's strengths?
Murray: "Saben is a tremendous athlete. He's got good quick twitch athleticism as well. He has a good first step with the ball in his hands. It's downhill really, really quickly. He's got underrated power. He's got a really strong lower body. Those are things I like to see in him. He attacks the rim really well, can elevate, really puts pressure on a defense, and creates for others. At the next level I like him as an attacking point guard who can play with a high motor and get downhill at defenses. If you surround him with any kind of shooting he's going to be able to drive and kick to guys and create a lot of open looks. He's got what a lot of guys call gravity. When he drives the lane you have no choice but to collapse on him, because he will beat you one on one. So kicking to shooters and putting shooters around him is going to be huge."
Q: Saben is an elite athlete in the Southeastern Conference, but I know the guys in the NBA are on a different level. Will he still be an elite athlete if he gets to the league?
Murray: "I'm not going to call him one of the better athletes. Most guys when they come into the league I would say are at the bottom tier of athleticism and they have to work their way up. I would at least consider him middle of the pack if he went on an NBA floor right now. So even though it's not at the top, I think he's athletic enough to have a step up on other guys coming in even in this class.
I think at the pro level he's going to have to improve his three-point shooting. It does need some work. This year he was at 32.2%. It's just enough where somebody has to respect it. They can't sag off of it. But at the NBA level and that deeper line he is going to have make that improvement. His seventy-five percent free throw percentage is a fairly good indicator. I think he'll at least be able to shoot at a league average level."
Q: Going into weaknesses, anything besides the outside shooting?
Murray: "Yeah, the big one for me are his turnovers. He had 3.1 turnovers per game this year. There were two things that I kind of think contributed to that. One, his dribble can be really loose. Sometimes, especially in the pick and roll, he can dribble away from his body. That allows defenders to throw their hands in there and knock it out his possession. His handle is going to have to get tighter. When he drives he can be fairly careless with the ball. He'll jump in the lane, whether that's because he gets pushed baseline or he'll jump at the rim before he even knows where he is going to pass. At that point on the way down he'll kick it out right to the other team. The biggest things for me are the turnovers, and then defensive switchability can be an issue.
He's small enough to where if he gets a big on him the big is pretty much going to score. I know know necessarily how he can improve on that if he doesn't get any bigger. But even if it's just technique you don't want to be a liability."
Q: Does he have a true position? Is he in-between a one and a two, and is that a reason he has had the turnovers because he hasn't gotten to play to that role yet?
Murray: "I evaluate Lee as a one. I see him as a point guard mostly because of his shot. He's 6-2 and has a hitch in his shot. I wouldn't want him to be my shooting guard. I don't think that is ever going to be his role. With the amount of pressure he can put on you I envision him as a one. He's got good vision and makes good plays for others when he's not so out of control in the air that he's making turnovers. I like him as a one if you have shooters around him he can be a good facilitator."
Q: What is the starting height a shooting guard in the NBA needs to be?
Murray: "There are actually a handful of guys we look at in the NBA and ask if he is going to be a one or a two, and then we look at how tall they are. If you are going to be a shooting guard for me I would want you to be at least 6-foot--4. I'd prefer you to be in the five, six, seven range, because I want you to be pretty big, So I look at Saben Lee, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Kira Lewis Jr. They are all like 6-foot-2 or three. I evaluate them all as point guards. It's not impossible, but in my mind if you are a shooting guard I want you at least 6-foot-4."
Q: Can he get drafted this time around, and if so where could he go?
Murray: "He's going to be one of those unique guys where there is not necessarily a consensus on him if he were to declare. ESPN has him in the nineties, but a lot of other people have him considerably higher. I have him at fifty-one, because I buy the athleticism which is natural. If there is a kid who isn't an athlete but is really smart, I can't teach you that. He's got the athleticism. He can get downhill. It's the shooting if we could just fix that.
I think he can be a solid point guard in the NBA even if he's not a regular starter for his whole career. I think you can get good rotation minutes out of him at the one because he's athletic, can get downhill, and put pressure on defenses. There are some organizations who have him as a second round grade. There are some who have him in that eighty ro ninety, who believe he should go back to school and compete to be a first round pick next year. So I think it's going to be fully dependent on what the individual organization believes in him and how much they have scouted him. So that's going to be up to him and his camp to figure out. I would hate for him to come out, get passed on, and have to go somewhere as an undrafted free agent, because I think he is better than that."
Q: That leads to this question. You'll see guys all the time where people say they need to come back to college and improve. But the coaches only get twenty hours per week max with them. In the pros it's unlimited. Can they get more work and skill development in the professional ranks?
Murray: "I think you have a better chance of improving your skill set and your game by going to the professional level and getting professional level coaching. But there are a lot of Division One basketball schools that have former professional coaches in their development rooms. It's dependent on where you are. Look at Vanderbilt. They have guys that you would be comfortable learning from because of their professional histories.The guys they put in the league, or have played with, or have coached before, I think he's in a spot if he came back to school he's not looking at a negative from a development standpoint.
I used to think about it in just basketball terms, but actually we don't know all of the players' home situations either. Even though fifty to seventy grand isn't a ton of money to some people, if a kid's family life at home is pretty rough then you look at it as a non-basketball decision. They need to send money to their family so they're going to go do this. It is all unique. It is a case by case situation, but I generally lean that you have a better chance of improving your game and skill-set at least in a G-League camp. That's where all of your time is devoted to."
Q: Can he up his draft stock if he comes back for his senior year?
Murray: "If he came back and let's say he had a season where he shot in the high thirties from three, he's got a ceiling of the end of the first round. Right now I think the shooting is the only glaring thing I have an issue with. That's an improvement area. But again, I'm encouraged by the free throw percentage that he can do that as an indicator. I think if he came back to school you're looking at a late first to mid second, depending on the shooting. I think the shooting will be the swing factor that it all comes down to."
Q: What would your advice be to him or what would you do if you were in his shoes?
Murray: "(Laughing) I like him enough to where if he was in the draft and I'm in the second round, I'm going to take him. I may be irrationally higher on him than a lot of the others. My advice would probably be if he doesn't get a promise from a team in a range that he's comfortable with then go back to school. I wouldn't declare for this blindly, but if he gets a promise in a range where he's comfortable then come on out. But otherwise, go back."
