We’re making Missouri a lock. Based on results, there is no good reason to keep the Tigers out now. The only reason we’ve been cautious — and it is a fair enough reason, honestly — is that Missouri’s predictive metrics have never quite matched up with the actual wins and losses on their resume. The BPI thinks this is the 63rd-best team in the country! Strength of Record, on the other hand, has this team ranked 18th. Even if you split the difference, Missouri is in good shape, and in any case a little close analysis (see all the single-digit wins over Quadrant 3 and 4 teams like South Carolina, Southern Indiana, Southeast Missouri, and Penn) can help the committee untangle why Missouri could have the record it has (and the dearth of bad losses) and still not rate out all that highly in the core NET. The Tigers’ actual seed might be hampered by some of these numbers, but it would be crazy for the committee not to select them.
The same is true for Arkansas, but for totally opposite reasons. Arkansas is like the anti-Mizzou. Inverse Mizzou. Mizzou with an evil goatee. The metrics here are all fantastic, except for Strength of Record, which breaks with the top 15 team vibe given out by the predictive stuff and instead ranks Arkansas 40th. The wins and losses are a good bit less flattering. The Razorbacks have three Quadrant 1 wins: neutral-court versus San Diego State, at Kentucky Feb. 7, home versus Texas A&M, plus a just-OK Quad 2 record (4-2) and a road loss to LSU in Quadrant 3. Still: Those wins are probably enough for a major conference team with underlying numbers this good. It’s really hard to imagine Arkansas missing out in the end.
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri
Work to do: Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Auburn (19-11, 9-8; NET: 37, SOS: 27): The Tigers played great at Alabama Wednesday night, as well as they’ve played all season, and in an environment and atmosphere — not just among the fans but between the two sets of players, too — that made Alabama-Auburn feel like one of the college hoops game’s great rivalries. We’ll take all of that they got. Unfortunately for Auburn, the fantastic performance did not result in a win, which is all that really matters at this stage of the season, particularly for a team with so few quality victories on its resume thus far. Auburn beat Arkansas at home. It beat Northwestern on a neutral floor. Those are the two Quadrant 1 wins, and the rest of the victories in other quadrants don’t get any more impressive from there. The Tigers have lost eight of their last 11, and desperately need to change the pattern Saturday at home against Tennessee.
Mississippi State (20-10, 8-9; NET: 43, SOS: 49): Mississippi State continues to head — haltingly, sometimes imperceptibly — closer toward the NCAA Tournament. Beating South Carolina Tuesday night doesn’t exactly change the game, but avoiding losing to South Carolina kept the Bulldogs where they were before the night began, which is maybe the First Four? Maybe the last four byes? This team’s mix of nonconference performance (albeit against a bad noncon schedule) and late-season performance in the SEC (and against TCU) has made it one of the strongest finishers on the 2023 bubble. It has just one more regular season game to keep things moving, Saturday at …
Vanderbilt (17-13, 10-7; NET: 84, SOS: 17): Vanderbilt?! Yes, Vanderbilt. Talk about strong finishers: The Commodores have won seven of their past eight, including wins over Tennessee and, as of Wednesday night, at Kentucky. All of a sudden, they’re at least worth a bubble look. That NET number is pretty rough, sure, and the bad losses (two in Quadrant 3, one to Grambling State at home in Quadrant 4) are pretty gross. But this team has won three high-level Quad 1 games and is 4-1 against Quadrant 2, with a chance to pick off Mississippi State Saturday and head into the SEC tournament with some real bubble momentum. It would take some real doing; this is probably the farthest end of our bubble right now. But stranger things have happened.
The same is true for Arkansas, but for totally opposite reasons. Arkansas is like the anti-Mizzou. Inverse Mizzou. Mizzou with an evil goatee. The metrics here are all fantastic, except for Strength of Record, which breaks with the top 15 team vibe given out by the predictive stuff and instead ranks Arkansas 40th. The wins and losses are a good bit less flattering. The Razorbacks have three Quadrant 1 wins: neutral-court versus San Diego State, at Kentucky Feb. 7, home versus Texas A&M, plus a just-OK Quad 2 record (4-2) and a road loss to LSU in Quadrant 3. Still: Those wins are probably enough for a major conference team with underlying numbers this good. It’s really hard to imagine Arkansas missing out in the end.
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri
Work to do: Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Auburn (19-11, 9-8; NET: 37, SOS: 27): The Tigers played great at Alabama Wednesday night, as well as they’ve played all season, and in an environment and atmosphere — not just among the fans but between the two sets of players, too — that made Alabama-Auburn feel like one of the college hoops game’s great rivalries. We’ll take all of that they got. Unfortunately for Auburn, the fantastic performance did not result in a win, which is all that really matters at this stage of the season, particularly for a team with so few quality victories on its resume thus far. Auburn beat Arkansas at home. It beat Northwestern on a neutral floor. Those are the two Quadrant 1 wins, and the rest of the victories in other quadrants don’t get any more impressive from there. The Tigers have lost eight of their last 11, and desperately need to change the pattern Saturday at home against Tennessee.
Mississippi State (20-10, 8-9; NET: 43, SOS: 49): Mississippi State continues to head — haltingly, sometimes imperceptibly — closer toward the NCAA Tournament. Beating South Carolina Tuesday night doesn’t exactly change the game, but avoiding losing to South Carolina kept the Bulldogs where they were before the night began, which is maybe the First Four? Maybe the last four byes? This team’s mix of nonconference performance (albeit against a bad noncon schedule) and late-season performance in the SEC (and against TCU) has made it one of the strongest finishers on the 2023 bubble. It has just one more regular season game to keep things moving, Saturday at …
Vanderbilt (17-13, 10-7; NET: 84, SOS: 17): Vanderbilt?! Yes, Vanderbilt. Talk about strong finishers: The Commodores have won seven of their past eight, including wins over Tennessee and, as of Wednesday night, at Kentucky. All of a sudden, they’re at least worth a bubble look. That NET number is pretty rough, sure, and the bad losses (two in Quadrant 3, one to Grambling State at home in Quadrant 4) are pretty gross. But this team has won three high-level Quad 1 games and is 4-1 against Quadrant 2, with a chance to pick off Mississippi State Saturday and head into the SEC tournament with some real bubble momentum. It would take some real doing; this is probably the farthest end of our bubble right now. But stranger things have happened.
