A closer look below:
AUTOMATIC BIDS
33. Utah
34. Big Ten loser (Michigan State or Purdue)
35. SEC loser (Kentucky or Texas A&M)
36. Virginia
37. Villanova
38. Oklahoma
39. West Virginia
40. Miami
41. Xavier
42. Iowa State
43. Duke
44. Indiana
45. Cal
46. Iowa
47. Maryland
48. Arizona
49. Texas
50. Baylor
51. Texas Tech
52. Wisconsin
53. Notre Dame
54. Dayton
IN MY MIND, CLEARLY A CUT ABOVE THE REST:
55. A10 loser (St. Joe’s or VCU)
56. Colorado
57. Southern Cal
58. Oregon State
59. Providence
60. Butler
61. Cincinnati
62. Pitt
LEAVING 13 TEAMS BATTLING FOR SIX SPOTS. (Number next to each team is average of BPI-KenPom-RPI-Sagarin):
Wichita State (27)
St. Mary’s (33)
Vanderbilt (35)
San Diego State (44)
Valparaiso (44)
Syracuse (48)
South Carolina (50)
Michigan (51)
Tulsa (54)
St. Bonaventure (65)
George Washington (66)
Monmouth (72)
Temple (74)
HOW I THINK THIS SORTS OUT:
63. Wichita State: I think the more modern emphasis on computer numbers like KenPom, etc., reflect true quality of teams wins out; WSU by far has the best numbers and with six spots and tough choices, this seems like an easy “out” for the committee. I would understand if WSU were left out, but I have no qualms with it getting in.
64. St. Bonaventure: That “65” next to its name is due to poor Pomeroy-BPI-Sagarins; the RPI is 30 and I still would bet THAT’S the key number. Add two wins over St. Joe’s (in) and one over Dayton (in), a No. 78 strength of schedule, an 8-6 mark away from home and 10-6 vs. top-150 RPI (though two 150-plus RPI losses, which isn’t terribly uncommon with teams under consideration here) and I think those things give the committee more solid reasons to keep the Bonnies in. Remember, Colorado State was left out of the field last year because of the same crummy non-RPI ratings, BUT, I don’t think CSU had top-end wins of this quality and I suspect it was the combination of the two, not just those computer numbers, that sealed the deal. Not great, but we’re dealing with dogs with fleas with all these teams.
65. Michigan: The Wolverines only have five RPI top-100 wins, BUT, they've got four that none of the other dozen teams under analysis here (Maryland, Purdue, Indiana and Texas, with the last two on neutral sites) can come close to touching. UM also has 10 of its 11 losses inside the top 45 of the RPI and the 11th was to Ohio State (72). Nobody else even comes close to Michigan in either regard. It’s hard to distinguish between many of these things, but UM has two very distinguishing characteristics here and when you’re looking for simplicity in a complicated picture, that seems to make it easier.
66. Temple: The computers hate Temple, but, a 59 RPI is not a deal-breaker. The Owls were the top seed in the American Athletic Tournament, and again, here’s a team that has something nobody else has: five wins over teams I think are in the field (if you throw out garbage-conference winners) or would have been in the field if it weren’t for NCAA sanctions (SMU), the other four being Connecticut (twice) and Cincinnati (twice) and, for good measure, one against Tulsa, which is also under consideration here. Plus, all but two losses came against top-80 RPI teams, and those were Memphis and ECU.
67. St. Mary’s: Of these 13 teams under consideration, the Gaels are the only one ranked in the top 40 of each computer ranking, which suggests they’re a very good team, and although St. Mary’s played a weak schedule (and not great outside the league too, with a No. 172 strength of schedule outside the league), it’s pick-your-poison here. The two bad losses (both to No. 127 Pepperdine) aren’t “bad” compared to everyone else here, and the other three were at Cal (No. 16, and by four points) Gonzaga (No. 43) and at BYU (76). Wins aren’t great—Gonzaga twice—but it did get four other top-100 RPI wins and its six of those total is about average for the 13 teams we’re looking at here.
68. South Carolina: Okay, confession time here—on our podcast, we thought the Gamecocks were out. And if Memphis wins on Sunday, they probably are. But (long story) we mis-counted teams due to failing to account for that AAC match-up and that leaves another spot. The really good wins are missing; outside of winning at A&M, the Gamecocks didn’t beat anyone else who’s on this list of “in” teams and for that matter, didn’t even beat a crummy conference champ. But… Carolina’s 13 wins vs. RPI top-150 teams are the most of the 13 teams I’m looking at here (three more than anyone else of the group, for that matter). Plus, there are only eight losses overall and only one (at Missouri-222) outside the top 150, AND, Carolina’s 9-6 mark away from home is good. I don’t think I’d put the Gamecocks in if I’m picking the “best” field—in that case, I’d have Vanderbilt in here—but if we’re choosing résumés, which is what the committee generally does, it might be hard to put other teams in above Carolina.
AS FOR VANDERBILT:
The plusses: two really, really good wins over TAMU and Kentucky; you could argue that tops anyone else’s best two, and, VU beat A&M worse than anyone this season. And if you lean on the computer numbers all equally, I think VU sneaks into the field.
But, that A&M will probably never be brought up and a 9-13 mark vs. the RPI top 150—even though that’s misleading, because all but five of those games came against the top 50—just looks awful on paper, as does going 5-11 away from home, even if, again, those were almost all tougher games than your evenly-distributed RPI top 150 slate would have dealt out.
If you’re taking the “best” teams, I put Vanderbilt in. But that’s not the way it usually works, and I think VU may be left out by a margin, both literally and figuratively, roughly the amount of the lateness of Wade Baldwin’s final shot against Tennessee. I hope I’m wrong and I may well be, but after spending more than couple dozen hours over the last couple of weeks looking at it, that’s what I’m expecting to happen.
AUTOMATIC BIDS
- American: Connecticut OR Memphis
- America East: Stony Brook
- Atlantic 10: St. Joe’s OR VCU
- ACC: North Carolina
- Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
- Big 12: Kansas
- Big East: Seton Hall
- Big Sky: Weber State
- Big South: UNC-Asheville
- Big Ten: Michigan State OR Purdue
- Big West: Long Beach State OR Hawaii
- Colonial: UNC-Wilmington
- Conference USA: MTSU
- Horizon: Green Bay
- Ivy: Yale
- Metro Atlantic: Iona
- Mid-American: Buffalo
- Mid-Eastern: Hampton
- Missouri Valley:Northern Iowa
- Mountain West: Fresno State
- Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
- Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
- Pac-12: Oregon
- Patriot: Holy Cross
- Southeastern: Kentucky OR Texas A&M
- Southern: Chattanooga
- Southland: Stephen F. Austin
- Southwestern Athletic: Southern
- Sun Belt: Little Rock OR Louisiana-Monroe
- Summit: South Dakota State
- West Coast: Gonzaga
- Western Athletic: Cal State-Bakersfield OR New Mexico State
33. Utah
34. Big Ten loser (Michigan State or Purdue)
35. SEC loser (Kentucky or Texas A&M)
36. Virginia
37. Villanova
38. Oklahoma
39. West Virginia
40. Miami
41. Xavier
42. Iowa State
43. Duke
44. Indiana
45. Cal
46. Iowa
47. Maryland
48. Arizona
49. Texas
50. Baylor
51. Texas Tech
52. Wisconsin
53. Notre Dame
54. Dayton
IN MY MIND, CLEARLY A CUT ABOVE THE REST:
55. A10 loser (St. Joe’s or VCU)
56. Colorado
57. Southern Cal
58. Oregon State
59. Providence
60. Butler
61. Cincinnati
62. Pitt
LEAVING 13 TEAMS BATTLING FOR SIX SPOTS. (Number next to each team is average of BPI-KenPom-RPI-Sagarin):
Wichita State (27)
St. Mary’s (33)
Vanderbilt (35)
San Diego State (44)
Valparaiso (44)
Syracuse (48)
South Carolina (50)
Michigan (51)
Tulsa (54)
St. Bonaventure (65)
George Washington (66)
Monmouth (72)
Temple (74)
HOW I THINK THIS SORTS OUT:
63. Wichita State: I think the more modern emphasis on computer numbers like KenPom, etc., reflect true quality of teams wins out; WSU by far has the best numbers and with six spots and tough choices, this seems like an easy “out” for the committee. I would understand if WSU were left out, but I have no qualms with it getting in.
64. St. Bonaventure: That “65” next to its name is due to poor Pomeroy-BPI-Sagarins; the RPI is 30 and I still would bet THAT’S the key number. Add two wins over St. Joe’s (in) and one over Dayton (in), a No. 78 strength of schedule, an 8-6 mark away from home and 10-6 vs. top-150 RPI (though two 150-plus RPI losses, which isn’t terribly uncommon with teams under consideration here) and I think those things give the committee more solid reasons to keep the Bonnies in. Remember, Colorado State was left out of the field last year because of the same crummy non-RPI ratings, BUT, I don’t think CSU had top-end wins of this quality and I suspect it was the combination of the two, not just those computer numbers, that sealed the deal. Not great, but we’re dealing with dogs with fleas with all these teams.
65. Michigan: The Wolverines only have five RPI top-100 wins, BUT, they've got four that none of the other dozen teams under analysis here (Maryland, Purdue, Indiana and Texas, with the last two on neutral sites) can come close to touching. UM also has 10 of its 11 losses inside the top 45 of the RPI and the 11th was to Ohio State (72). Nobody else even comes close to Michigan in either regard. It’s hard to distinguish between many of these things, but UM has two very distinguishing characteristics here and when you’re looking for simplicity in a complicated picture, that seems to make it easier.
66. Temple: The computers hate Temple, but, a 59 RPI is not a deal-breaker. The Owls were the top seed in the American Athletic Tournament, and again, here’s a team that has something nobody else has: five wins over teams I think are in the field (if you throw out garbage-conference winners) or would have been in the field if it weren’t for NCAA sanctions (SMU), the other four being Connecticut (twice) and Cincinnati (twice) and, for good measure, one against Tulsa, which is also under consideration here. Plus, all but two losses came against top-80 RPI teams, and those were Memphis and ECU.
67. St. Mary’s: Of these 13 teams under consideration, the Gaels are the only one ranked in the top 40 of each computer ranking, which suggests they’re a very good team, and although St. Mary’s played a weak schedule (and not great outside the league too, with a No. 172 strength of schedule outside the league), it’s pick-your-poison here. The two bad losses (both to No. 127 Pepperdine) aren’t “bad” compared to everyone else here, and the other three were at Cal (No. 16, and by four points) Gonzaga (No. 43) and at BYU (76). Wins aren’t great—Gonzaga twice—but it did get four other top-100 RPI wins and its six of those total is about average for the 13 teams we’re looking at here.
68. South Carolina: Okay, confession time here—on our podcast, we thought the Gamecocks were out. And if Memphis wins on Sunday, they probably are. But (long story) we mis-counted teams due to failing to account for that AAC match-up and that leaves another spot. The really good wins are missing; outside of winning at A&M, the Gamecocks didn’t beat anyone else who’s on this list of “in” teams and for that matter, didn’t even beat a crummy conference champ. But… Carolina’s 13 wins vs. RPI top-150 teams are the most of the 13 teams I’m looking at here (three more than anyone else of the group, for that matter). Plus, there are only eight losses overall and only one (at Missouri-222) outside the top 150, AND, Carolina’s 9-6 mark away from home is good. I don’t think I’d put the Gamecocks in if I’m picking the “best” field—in that case, I’d have Vanderbilt in here—but if we’re choosing résumés, which is what the committee generally does, it might be hard to put other teams in above Carolina.
AS FOR VANDERBILT:
The plusses: two really, really good wins over TAMU and Kentucky; you could argue that tops anyone else’s best two, and, VU beat A&M worse than anyone this season. And if you lean on the computer numbers all equally, I think VU sneaks into the field.
But, that A&M will probably never be brought up and a 9-13 mark vs. the RPI top 150—even though that’s misleading, because all but five of those games came against the top 50—just looks awful on paper, as does going 5-11 away from home, even if, again, those were almost all tougher games than your evenly-distributed RPI top 150 slate would have dealt out.
If you’re taking the “best” teams, I put Vanderbilt in. But that’s not the way it usually works, and I think VU may be left out by a margin, both literally and figuratively, roughly the amount of the lateness of Wade Baldwin’s final shot against Tennessee. I hope I’m wrong and I may well be, but after spending more than couple dozen hours over the last couple of weeks looking at it, that’s what I’m expecting to happen.
