As we await our first real test of the season this weekend at Okie State, I did some pondering this morning of our starting weekend pitchers.
First thing to focus on, of course, is who goes when this weekend. Weather has played havoc with the rotation and as of last weekend is was Schultz-Rocker-Leiter.
So, does Corbs tweak it and try to get it set the way he wants it in anticipation of the first SEC series next weekend or does he stick with the current?
My guess is we will see Rocker-Leiter-Schultz. But don't bet any money on that for those out there brave enough to bet on sports.
With even more time to kill this morning [a common occurrence for we retirees,] I decided to dive deeper into the stat book, focusing just on these 3 guys.
First off, all have 3 starts and all are against the same teams. That makes for a fair comparison.
Much todo [that might be spelled toodo, not sure] has been made about Rocker-Leiter and comparing them to each other in addition to their MLB draft status.
Not to let the cat out of the bag, but don't sleep on Schultz.
[never put a cat in a bag, let them crawl in themselves -- they are curious creatures and have the unique ability to get themselves into a pickle, as well as get out of a pickle, without any assistance from a human, and it's often entertaining.]
Also keep in mind this has nothing to do with the MLB Draft -- Rocker and Leiter will go very high no matter what happens going forward.
In many stat categories, Schultz is actually pitching better than either Rocker or Leiter. Surprise, surprise.
The leader in each category is bolded in order to get a visual feel for how the analysis is going. If the leaders are close they both get bolded.
Leiter and Rocker are both 3-0 and Schultz is just 1-1. However, this is a meaningless stat IMHO so I typically ignore it unless it's Grayson Garvin or Tyler Beede going for a perfect 10-0 SEC season, which happened in 2011 and 2013.
Rocker and Leiter have also pitched more innings -- 15, compared to Shultz' 10.1 -- and each have 3 Quality Starts to Schultz' 1. That's far more important than Wins IMHO, despite the fact the two stats match-up so far. Advantage Rocker and Leiter due to consistency.
Now moving on into the deep dive. I liken this to when you are cave exploring with friends and you come to a fork, where one opening is much smaller than the other. My friends are often too chicken to take the smaller one, but not I! I fearlessly go where others are too rotund for it to be an option.
% Batters Faced that are LOB: Schultz 15%, Rocker 19%, Leiter 22%. Not a huge difference but Schultz is better.
% Strikes Thrown: Schultz 64%, Rocker & Leiter 61. Again, not a huge difference but Schultz is tops.
Hits allowed per 9 innings: Leiter 3.0, Rocker 3.6, Schultz 5.2. Clear advantage for Rocker and Leiter but, as WHIP data shows, all things considered, Schultz prevails.
BB given up per 9 innings: Schultz 1.7, Rocker and Leiter 4.2. Clear advantage Schultz. [more on this momentarily, so don't get your panties in a wad]
Strikeouts per 9 innings: Leiter 16, Rocker 15, Schultz 12. All are very, very but advantage Leiter/Rocker
WHIP: Schultz .774, Leiter .800, Rocker .867. Shultz' lower BB rate gives him the win in this category.
OBP: Shultz .231, Rocker .250, Leiter .259. All close, but Schultz is tops again, also due to lower BB rate.
Batting Avg Against (BAA): Leiter .104, Rocker .125, Schultz .171 Again, very good numbers across the board.
First Pitch Strikes: Schultz 63%, Rocker 60%, Leiter 52%. This is likely why Schultz walks fewer guys. It also reveals an issue for Leiter to focus on. If you continually fall behind the hitters you are eventually going to get burned.
Ground Ball %: Schultz 65%, Rocker 54%, Leiter 44%. This is mostly significant when it comes to needing a DP to get out of a jam. But it also indicates the zone where he's pitching to primarily which, in Schultz' case is below the belt, which makes it more difficult for the hitter to launch one. [none of them have given up a HR to date]
Fly Ball %: Leiter 30%, Rocker 33%, Schultz 13%. This is mostly significant when there's a runner on 3rd and the Sac Fly comes into play. Not much a chance for that to occur with Schultz so far. Plus, it's nearly impossible to hit a HR unless it's a fly ball unless you are Ricky Henderson.
Now for a big differential in performance-to-date.
Success rate on 3-2 pitches: Schultz 83%, Rocker 63%, Leiter 45%.
Significantly better performance here for Schultz and it's how a pitcher often gets out of a problematic inning against persistent hitters. Leiter has some work to do here as well to shore up his game.
If you simply add up the bolded names you get a result of:
Schultz 9
Leiter 5
Rocker 4
That, of course, gives equal weight to each category and that would be a mistake to make in any analysis. All things are not equal in value.
A bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush, it is said, and although I find that adage problematic, it's very American to say it and I am 100% American
[despite being 90% French/German origin -- which possibly explains why I vacillate between being a coward and a war-monger]
plus I think it applies to the situation-at-hand [as does the decision to be a coward or a war-monger -- you have to pick your spots.]
The overall conclusion I come to is that we don't just have 2 Super Starters, we actually have 3.
And that's a very good thing no matter how you look at it.
First thing to focus on, of course, is who goes when this weekend. Weather has played havoc with the rotation and as of last weekend is was Schultz-Rocker-Leiter.
So, does Corbs tweak it and try to get it set the way he wants it in anticipation of the first SEC series next weekend or does he stick with the current?
My guess is we will see Rocker-Leiter-Schultz. But don't bet any money on that for those out there brave enough to bet on sports.
With even more time to kill this morning [a common occurrence for we retirees,] I decided to dive deeper into the stat book, focusing just on these 3 guys.
First off, all have 3 starts and all are against the same teams. That makes for a fair comparison.
Much todo [that might be spelled toodo, not sure] has been made about Rocker-Leiter and comparing them to each other in addition to their MLB draft status.
Not to let the cat out of the bag, but don't sleep on Schultz.
[never put a cat in a bag, let them crawl in themselves -- they are curious creatures and have the unique ability to get themselves into a pickle, as well as get out of a pickle, without any assistance from a human, and it's often entertaining.]
Also keep in mind this has nothing to do with the MLB Draft -- Rocker and Leiter will go very high no matter what happens going forward.
In many stat categories, Schultz is actually pitching better than either Rocker or Leiter. Surprise, surprise.
The leader in each category is bolded in order to get a visual feel for how the analysis is going. If the leaders are close they both get bolded.
Leiter and Rocker are both 3-0 and Schultz is just 1-1. However, this is a meaningless stat IMHO so I typically ignore it unless it's Grayson Garvin or Tyler Beede going for a perfect 10-0 SEC season, which happened in 2011 and 2013.
Rocker and Leiter have also pitched more innings -- 15, compared to Shultz' 10.1 -- and each have 3 Quality Starts to Schultz' 1. That's far more important than Wins IMHO, despite the fact the two stats match-up so far. Advantage Rocker and Leiter due to consistency.
Now moving on into the deep dive. I liken this to when you are cave exploring with friends and you come to a fork, where one opening is much smaller than the other. My friends are often too chicken to take the smaller one, but not I! I fearlessly go where others are too rotund for it to be an option.
% Batters Faced that are LOB: Schultz 15%, Rocker 19%, Leiter 22%. Not a huge difference but Schultz is better.
% Strikes Thrown: Schultz 64%, Rocker & Leiter 61. Again, not a huge difference but Schultz is tops.
Hits allowed per 9 innings: Leiter 3.0, Rocker 3.6, Schultz 5.2. Clear advantage for Rocker and Leiter but, as WHIP data shows, all things considered, Schultz prevails.
BB given up per 9 innings: Schultz 1.7, Rocker and Leiter 4.2. Clear advantage Schultz. [more on this momentarily, so don't get your panties in a wad]
Strikeouts per 9 innings: Leiter 16, Rocker 15, Schultz 12. All are very, very but advantage Leiter/Rocker
WHIP: Schultz .774, Leiter .800, Rocker .867. Shultz' lower BB rate gives him the win in this category.
OBP: Shultz .231, Rocker .250, Leiter .259. All close, but Schultz is tops again, also due to lower BB rate.
Batting Avg Against (BAA): Leiter .104, Rocker .125, Schultz .171 Again, very good numbers across the board.
First Pitch Strikes: Schultz 63%, Rocker 60%, Leiter 52%. This is likely why Schultz walks fewer guys. It also reveals an issue for Leiter to focus on. If you continually fall behind the hitters you are eventually going to get burned.
Ground Ball %: Schultz 65%, Rocker 54%, Leiter 44%. This is mostly significant when it comes to needing a DP to get out of a jam. But it also indicates the zone where he's pitching to primarily which, in Schultz' case is below the belt, which makes it more difficult for the hitter to launch one. [none of them have given up a HR to date]
Fly Ball %: Leiter 30%, Rocker 33%, Schultz 13%. This is mostly significant when there's a runner on 3rd and the Sac Fly comes into play. Not much a chance for that to occur with Schultz so far. Plus, it's nearly impossible to hit a HR unless it's a fly ball unless you are Ricky Henderson.
Now for a big differential in performance-to-date.
Success rate on 3-2 pitches: Schultz 83%, Rocker 63%, Leiter 45%.
Significantly better performance here for Schultz and it's how a pitcher often gets out of a problematic inning against persistent hitters. Leiter has some work to do here as well to shore up his game.
If you simply add up the bolded names you get a result of:
Schultz 9
Leiter 5
Rocker 4
That, of course, gives equal weight to each category and that would be a mistake to make in any analysis. All things are not equal in value.
A bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush, it is said, and although I find that adage problematic, it's very American to say it and I am 100% American
[despite being 90% French/German origin -- which possibly explains why I vacillate between being a coward and a war-monger]
plus I think it applies to the situation-at-hand [as does the decision to be a coward or a war-monger -- you have to pick your spots.]
The overall conclusion I come to is that we don't just have 2 Super Starters, we actually have 3.
And that's a very good thing no matter how you look at it.
