There's lots of baseball to play, and Vanderbilt (9 RPI) still with a good shot to host--and who knows, maybe get a national seed, even dropping two of three to Florida (1) and a mid-week home game with Louisville (2). A lot of stuff broke VU's way this weekend; here's a run-down of both the good and the bad.
THE GOOD NEWS
I know everyone thinks the SEC won't get seven host spots, but most of the teams that the pundits have speculated could get a hosting spot based on geography failed miserably this weekend, and to some extent in the mid-week also. That includes:
- Florida State, considered a national seed coming into the weekend, lost two of three at Duke (27) and before that, the Seminoles lost mid-week games to Jacksonville (62) and Florida Gulf Coast (91). That dropped FSU's RPI all the way down to 14.
- Louisville swept N.C. State, which was considered a borderline national seed coming into the weekend. The Wolfpack are now just 13-12 in the ACC, though to be fair, State didn't (and won't) play the league's two-worst RPI teams in Virginia Tech and Pitt, so the schedule's been tough. A lot hinges on how it handles North Carolina at home next weekend.
- Rice (25), which Baseball America had hosting, took one of two against Florida Atlantic (22) and lost a mid-week game to Houston (74).
- TCU (19) lost two of three at Baylor (113). The Horned Frogs have Kansas State (125) next weekend, and so it'll be tough to move the needle into the top 16 or so.
- Tulane (30) was going to have a tough time moving into hosting territory anyway, but the Green Wave lost one of three to Memphis (221).
- Arizona (24), perhaps the best candidate out West to host, dropped two of three to Arizona State at home. Making matters worse, Utah--which is 20-15 overall--has a three-game lead over the Wildcats in the loss column with three games for Arizona to play (Utah has six games left). Some people think that if Utah wins the league, it'll very much hurt the Pac-12's chances of hosting.
- Washington (48) has been a popular pick to host, but lost two of three at home to Washington State (167), which probably did the Huskies in; I don't think a team has ever hosted with an RPI over 35 or so, and UW has series left with Stanford (89) and Utah (124). Remember, the Pac-12 doesn't have a conference tournament.
- Oklahoma State (23), another team BA had hosting last week, lost two of three at a neutral site to Oklahoma (83), though it did get a nice mid-week win over Dallas Baptist (35).
- UCSB (21) lost two of three at home to Fullerton (28).
- Coastal Carolina (17) lost one of three at Charleston Southern (231).
- Michigan (31) was swept at Ohio State (76), which was crippling to the Wolverines. UM has edged towards the top 20 and with a good finish, had a chance to stick there.
- South Carolina (7) lost two of three at home to Texas A&M (4). A third loss this weekend, and I think VU might have passed the Gamecocks in the pecking order, but that didn't happen. Carolina (17-9 in the SEC) goes to Alabama (47) next weekend and if the Gamecocks lose the series and VU sweeps Auburn, I think VU might pass USC in the pecking order.
THE BAD NEWS
- Far and away, the worst news for Vanderbilt was LSU (12) sweeping Tennessee (88). LSU is now 17-10 and even if Vanderbilt sweeps Auburn, the Commdores may need to hope that Florida sweeps the Tigers in Gainesville next weekend. If both finish with 18 league wins, the Tigers, of course, had the edge of beating VU two games out of three in Baton Rouge, and of course just winning one game in Gainesville can be helpful to a team's RPI.
- Ole Miss (5) swept Kentucky at home. The Rebels go to Texas A&M next weekend; a series loss combined with a VU sweep might make things interesting, though it would probably take the Rebels getting swept for VU to pass Ole Miss.
- Mississippi State (8) keeps rolling. MSU finished the tough portion of its schedule three weekends ago, and is just pounding people now, wining eight straight. The Bulldogs finish with Arkansas (109) at home and if they sweep, or even take the series, I see them locking in a national seed.
- Southern Miss (16) took two of three from Louisiana Tech (48).
- Virginia (13) took two of three from Georgia Tech (18), though that's not all bad as Tech makes a charge to try to host as well.
- Louisiana-Lafayette (20) took two of three at South Alabama (42). UL-L hasn't much been in the hosting discussion, but its move into the RPI top 20 might start putting it in consideration.
WHERE THINGS STAND
I see a few issues settled already. By "lock," what I mean is, teams listed below could lose every game between now and the NCAA Tournament and that wouldn't change anything. That includes:
NATIONAL SEED LOCKS:
Florida (1)
Louisville (2)
Miami (3)
Texas A&M (4)
OTHER HOSTING LOCKS:
None
IN NOW, IN FOR SURE IF THEY WIN A SERIES
I think all these teams would host if the field were picked today:
Ole Miss (5; at Texas A&M)
N.C. State (6; North Carolina)
Mississippi State (8; Arkansas)
Texas Tech (10; West Virginia)
LSU (12; at Florida)
Southern Miss (16; at FIU)
Virginia (13; at Virginia Tech)
The good news for Vanderbilt: Ole Miss and LSU have very, very tough tasks, and even one win may not guarantee anything given the SEC's parity and the impending conference tournament in Hoover.
Also, N.C. State has played a brutal league slate, but would losing two of three to UNCA would put the Wolfpack at 14-14 in the league; how would the committee view that?
Speaking of the ACC, if Virginia swept Tech, the Cavaliers would be 19-10 in the ACC; it might be tough for the committee to deny UVA a national seed if that happened.
Texas Tech is probably already in and may in fact be a national seed; I'm being conservative here in case of a major slip-up against WVU (87).
IN DECENT POSITION:
Florida State (14; at Miami) is a questionable host at the moment, but would probably clinch a spot if it took a series from the Hurricanes.
ABOUT VANDERBILT
Repeat after me: the only reason Vanderbilt (9) is in a bad spot right now is due to the overall strength of the SEC. Experts don't think that the committee will give the SEC seven hosts, but what if the Commodores finish in the top 10 in the RPI? It would have been hard to ask for more favorable results that what happened this weekend, particularly regarding FSU, TCU, UCSB, Washington, Oklahoma State and Michigan. At some point, if everyone else is blowing their shot, there's got to be a last man standing somewhere. If the committee doesn't discriminate against VU for being in the SEC, the 'Dores should be no worse than 14 in the pecking order (I'm still putting VU behind South Carolina due to the Gamecocks' 2 1/2-game edge in the league standings.
OTHER THREATS
Clemson (11) is 13-14 in the ACC, but a sweep at Notre Dame (79) could give the Tigers a host spot, depending on what happens elsewhere. The Tigers have 15 top-50 wins, tied for the third-highest mark in the country.
Coastal Carolina (17) finishes with a three-game series vs. Campbell (162), but a mid-week game with UNC-Wilmington (34) could give the Chanticleers an RPI boost. BA had Coastal hosting last week, though the résumé (5-7 against the RPI top 50) is thin and includes a 1-6 mark against the top 25.
Louisiana-Lafayette (20) also could make a charge into a host site thanks to its RPI and a 8-9 top-50 mark. If the Rajin' Cajuns finish in the top 20 in the RPI, given the thought that the committee is (supposedly) looking for excuses to give hosting spots to teams outside the SEC and ACC, ULL should find itself in good position.
Thanks to geography, Oklahoma State (23) may still be in the mix, but is just 6-8 vs. top 50 teams. It's hard to see OSU justifiably getting a spot barring a conference tournament title, as a sweep over Kansas (195) won't move the needle.
TCU (19) is in the same boat in a way; it is 8-6 vs. the top 50, but lost a series to OSU and may have to win the conference tournament, though the Horned Frogs would seem to have a better shot that OSU.
Watch out for Cal State-Fullerton; the RPI is now 28 and they're the second-best option to Arizona (24) out West. That said, Fullerton is just 5-7 against the top 50 while Arizona is 8-8.
The crazy state of things probably still has Rice (25) and perhaps even Florida Atlantic (22) in the hosting mix, depending on finish.
A sleeper could be Wake Forest (31), which is 13-14 in the ACC, but has opportunities in a home series with Louisville as well as a mid-week game with Marshall (59).
Let me know if I left someone out; with nobody stepping up to claim much this weekend, the picture seems crazier than ever.
THE GOOD NEWS
I know everyone thinks the SEC won't get seven host spots, but most of the teams that the pundits have speculated could get a hosting spot based on geography failed miserably this weekend, and to some extent in the mid-week also. That includes:
- Florida State, considered a national seed coming into the weekend, lost two of three at Duke (27) and before that, the Seminoles lost mid-week games to Jacksonville (62) and Florida Gulf Coast (91). That dropped FSU's RPI all the way down to 14.
- Louisville swept N.C. State, which was considered a borderline national seed coming into the weekend. The Wolfpack are now just 13-12 in the ACC, though to be fair, State didn't (and won't) play the league's two-worst RPI teams in Virginia Tech and Pitt, so the schedule's been tough. A lot hinges on how it handles North Carolina at home next weekend.
- Rice (25), which Baseball America had hosting, took one of two against Florida Atlantic (22) and lost a mid-week game to Houston (74).
- TCU (19) lost two of three at Baylor (113). The Horned Frogs have Kansas State (125) next weekend, and so it'll be tough to move the needle into the top 16 or so.
- Tulane (30) was going to have a tough time moving into hosting territory anyway, but the Green Wave lost one of three to Memphis (221).
- Arizona (24), perhaps the best candidate out West to host, dropped two of three to Arizona State at home. Making matters worse, Utah--which is 20-15 overall--has a three-game lead over the Wildcats in the loss column with three games for Arizona to play (Utah has six games left). Some people think that if Utah wins the league, it'll very much hurt the Pac-12's chances of hosting.
- Washington (48) has been a popular pick to host, but lost two of three at home to Washington State (167), which probably did the Huskies in; I don't think a team has ever hosted with an RPI over 35 or so, and UW has series left with Stanford (89) and Utah (124). Remember, the Pac-12 doesn't have a conference tournament.
- Oklahoma State (23), another team BA had hosting last week, lost two of three at a neutral site to Oklahoma (83), though it did get a nice mid-week win over Dallas Baptist (35).
- UCSB (21) lost two of three at home to Fullerton (28).
- Coastal Carolina (17) lost one of three at Charleston Southern (231).
- Michigan (31) was swept at Ohio State (76), which was crippling to the Wolverines. UM has edged towards the top 20 and with a good finish, had a chance to stick there.
- South Carolina (7) lost two of three at home to Texas A&M (4). A third loss this weekend, and I think VU might have passed the Gamecocks in the pecking order, but that didn't happen. Carolina (17-9 in the SEC) goes to Alabama (47) next weekend and if the Gamecocks lose the series and VU sweeps Auburn, I think VU might pass USC in the pecking order.
THE BAD NEWS
- Far and away, the worst news for Vanderbilt was LSU (12) sweeping Tennessee (88). LSU is now 17-10 and even if Vanderbilt sweeps Auburn, the Commdores may need to hope that Florida sweeps the Tigers in Gainesville next weekend. If both finish with 18 league wins, the Tigers, of course, had the edge of beating VU two games out of three in Baton Rouge, and of course just winning one game in Gainesville can be helpful to a team's RPI.
- Ole Miss (5) swept Kentucky at home. The Rebels go to Texas A&M next weekend; a series loss combined with a VU sweep might make things interesting, though it would probably take the Rebels getting swept for VU to pass Ole Miss.
- Mississippi State (8) keeps rolling. MSU finished the tough portion of its schedule three weekends ago, and is just pounding people now, wining eight straight. The Bulldogs finish with Arkansas (109) at home and if they sweep, or even take the series, I see them locking in a national seed.
- Southern Miss (16) took two of three from Louisiana Tech (48).
- Virginia (13) took two of three from Georgia Tech (18), though that's not all bad as Tech makes a charge to try to host as well.
- Louisiana-Lafayette (20) took two of three at South Alabama (42). UL-L hasn't much been in the hosting discussion, but its move into the RPI top 20 might start putting it in consideration.
WHERE THINGS STAND
I see a few issues settled already. By "lock," what I mean is, teams listed below could lose every game between now and the NCAA Tournament and that wouldn't change anything. That includes:
NATIONAL SEED LOCKS:
Florida (1)
Louisville (2)
Miami (3)
Texas A&M (4)
OTHER HOSTING LOCKS:
None
IN NOW, IN FOR SURE IF THEY WIN A SERIES
I think all these teams would host if the field were picked today:
Ole Miss (5; at Texas A&M)
N.C. State (6; North Carolina)
Mississippi State (8; Arkansas)
Texas Tech (10; West Virginia)
LSU (12; at Florida)
Southern Miss (16; at FIU)
Virginia (13; at Virginia Tech)
The good news for Vanderbilt: Ole Miss and LSU have very, very tough tasks, and even one win may not guarantee anything given the SEC's parity and the impending conference tournament in Hoover.
Also, N.C. State has played a brutal league slate, but would losing two of three to UNCA would put the Wolfpack at 14-14 in the league; how would the committee view that?
Speaking of the ACC, if Virginia swept Tech, the Cavaliers would be 19-10 in the ACC; it might be tough for the committee to deny UVA a national seed if that happened.
Texas Tech is probably already in and may in fact be a national seed; I'm being conservative here in case of a major slip-up against WVU (87).
IN DECENT POSITION:
Florida State (14; at Miami) is a questionable host at the moment, but would probably clinch a spot if it took a series from the Hurricanes.
ABOUT VANDERBILT
Repeat after me: the only reason Vanderbilt (9) is in a bad spot right now is due to the overall strength of the SEC. Experts don't think that the committee will give the SEC seven hosts, but what if the Commodores finish in the top 10 in the RPI? It would have been hard to ask for more favorable results that what happened this weekend, particularly regarding FSU, TCU, UCSB, Washington, Oklahoma State and Michigan. At some point, if everyone else is blowing their shot, there's got to be a last man standing somewhere. If the committee doesn't discriminate against VU for being in the SEC, the 'Dores should be no worse than 14 in the pecking order (I'm still putting VU behind South Carolina due to the Gamecocks' 2 1/2-game edge in the league standings.
OTHER THREATS
Clemson (11) is 13-14 in the ACC, but a sweep at Notre Dame (79) could give the Tigers a host spot, depending on what happens elsewhere. The Tigers have 15 top-50 wins, tied for the third-highest mark in the country.
Coastal Carolina (17) finishes with a three-game series vs. Campbell (162), but a mid-week game with UNC-Wilmington (34) could give the Chanticleers an RPI boost. BA had Coastal hosting last week, though the résumé (5-7 against the RPI top 50) is thin and includes a 1-6 mark against the top 25.
Louisiana-Lafayette (20) also could make a charge into a host site thanks to its RPI and a 8-9 top-50 mark. If the Rajin' Cajuns finish in the top 20 in the RPI, given the thought that the committee is (supposedly) looking for excuses to give hosting spots to teams outside the SEC and ACC, ULL should find itself in good position.
Thanks to geography, Oklahoma State (23) may still be in the mix, but is just 6-8 vs. top 50 teams. It's hard to see OSU justifiably getting a spot barring a conference tournament title, as a sweep over Kansas (195) won't move the needle.
TCU (19) is in the same boat in a way; it is 8-6 vs. the top 50, but lost a series to OSU and may have to win the conference tournament, though the Horned Frogs would seem to have a better shot that OSU.
Watch out for Cal State-Fullerton; the RPI is now 28 and they're the second-best option to Arizona (24) out West. That said, Fullerton is just 5-7 against the top 50 while Arizona is 8-8.
The crazy state of things probably still has Rice (25) and perhaps even Florida Atlantic (22) in the hosting mix, depending on finish.
A sleeper could be Wake Forest (31), which is 13-14 in the ACC, but has opportunities in a home series with Louisville as well as a mid-week game with Marshall (59).
Let me know if I left someone out; with nobody stepping up to claim much this weekend, the picture seems crazier than ever.
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