Most everyone really focuses on those last four in, last four out, last four byes, etc. And most yrs Bracketolgists only miss 1 or 2, some yrs they hit them all, so when you see VU as 2nd 4 out from Joe Lunardi, I get it. I mean, we'd all rather see them as a 6 seed. But, lets look first at 16/17 yr with VU
No one had VU in with 3 weeks left before SEC tourney. They weren't on the radar. Even with a week to go no one had them in, Palm didn't even have them in the bubble conversation. By the time they finished up, and after the FL win, everyone pretty much had them as last 4 in, Lunardi might of had them as last 4 byes. Well, not only did VU get in, they got in as a 9 seed.
That means, all the Bracketolgists were way off with VU. By somewhere between 5 - a whopping 12 spots!!!!! To put it in perspective, if you shift that all down 8 -12 spots where VU was one of the last teams in, pretty much no Bracketologists would of had them in the last 8 out.
So, just look at the SEEDS every yr, there are many teams they miss by 2/3 seed lines, which can be anywhere from 1 - 12 spots. But, most of those just don't get noticed much or looked at much.
So, just because folks have VU as say, the 6th team out, doesn't mean that right now VU is really even 12 spots ahead of that with the committee. Doesn't mean they are either, but if you put too much stock in these Bracketologists you are doing the wrong thing. I've done this now for almost 40 yrs. I've never missed more than 2 teams in the field and have nailed them all several times. So, its not that hard (I do think its hard to get them all right). And, say, I do mine I could be off by 4 teams from Lunardit, of which 2 of mine make it and 2 of his dont, and vice versa. So, combined we would of missed on 4 teams, but only 2 each. they miss bad on teams many times
As for seedings, well, I'm not sure how good I am at that, about the same as the bracketologists, which isnt very good.
So, summary is they miss on teams all the time by 4-8 even 12 spots. VU has a chance, I think a good chance if they win Thursday. But, its so subjective with those 12 members, they try to quantify it, but they or we just can't. To me, history tells us with VU's SoS and there overall record with that SoS, they will get in. That's the main thing I'm basing it on, along with if you just compare VU's accomplishments compared to a AR, Aub and MSSt, I think its going to be hard to put all 3 of those teams in ahead of VU despite what the computers say.
So, we will see, a week from today will be about as nervous of a show I will watch, well unless VU were to run the table in the SEC tourney, or frankly even win 2 or 3 games. And, no I wasn't nervous in 16/17, I was very confident they were in, and no I wasn't nervous in 15/16, I was very confident they weren't in (wrong there).
No one had VU in with 3 weeks left before SEC tourney. They weren't on the radar. Even with a week to go no one had them in, Palm didn't even have them in the bubble conversation. By the time they finished up, and after the FL win, everyone pretty much had them as last 4 in, Lunardi might of had them as last 4 byes. Well, not only did VU get in, they got in as a 9 seed.
That means, all the Bracketolgists were way off with VU. By somewhere between 5 - a whopping 12 spots!!!!! To put it in perspective, if you shift that all down 8 -12 spots where VU was one of the last teams in, pretty much no Bracketologists would of had them in the last 8 out.
So, just look at the SEEDS every yr, there are many teams they miss by 2/3 seed lines, which can be anywhere from 1 - 12 spots. But, most of those just don't get noticed much or looked at much.
So, just because folks have VU as say, the 6th team out, doesn't mean that right now VU is really even 12 spots ahead of that with the committee. Doesn't mean they are either, but if you put too much stock in these Bracketologists you are doing the wrong thing. I've done this now for almost 40 yrs. I've never missed more than 2 teams in the field and have nailed them all several times. So, its not that hard (I do think its hard to get them all right). And, say, I do mine I could be off by 4 teams from Lunardit, of which 2 of mine make it and 2 of his dont, and vice versa. So, combined we would of missed on 4 teams, but only 2 each. they miss bad on teams many times
As for seedings, well, I'm not sure how good I am at that, about the same as the bracketologists, which isnt very good.
So, summary is they miss on teams all the time by 4-8 even 12 spots. VU has a chance, I think a good chance if they win Thursday. But, its so subjective with those 12 members, they try to quantify it, but they or we just can't. To me, history tells us with VU's SoS and there overall record with that SoS, they will get in. That's the main thing I'm basing it on, along with if you just compare VU's accomplishments compared to a AR, Aub and MSSt, I think its going to be hard to put all 3 of those teams in ahead of VU despite what the computers say.
So, we will see, a week from today will be about as nervous of a show I will watch, well unless VU were to run the table in the SEC tourney, or frankly even win 2 or 3 games. And, no I wasn't nervous in 16/17, I was very confident they were in, and no I wasn't nervous in 15/16, I was very confident they weren't in (wrong there).
