In no particular order...
- Was running some stats tonight to compare Vanderbilt's pitching staffs against the rest of the SEC. The staff ERA after today is 4.69, which is the next-highest in the league. It's "component" or "expected" ERA (Bill James stat based on type/number of base runners allowed, strikeouts, etc.) is 3.08.
I have triple-checked my formula to see if it's right, which it is, though there's *something* about it that doesn't work for college (it under-estimates ERA by about two-thirds of a run on average). Still, it does that for everybody and the difference between Vanderbilt and the next-worst team (LSU at 0.86) is significant.
So this tells me there's some mis-fortune (probably in clustering runners, which, as you've watched games, it's the huge innings like today that have been fatal) that should even out over time.
- I also think that in time, some of the pitchers who are giving up the big innings will either get it right or be replaced by other guys. You're really not going to see more than 9-10 guys pitch on competitive weekends so, should the guys getting shelled not get right, they'll be replaced.
- Looking forward to seeing (I guess?) Thompson and Dutkanych start again in the midweek. Dutkanych, if he's as good as I think, will wind up starting on weekends. I just don't think Bryce Cunningham can give them more than 3-4 innings with consistency.
- So with all that, color me still-not-worried about the pitching, though I wish they'd have certain guys throw more aggressively at times and attack the zone more than they do. (Like yesterday.)
- I'm still not sure what to make of the lineup. I don't think it's a bad one by any stretch, but the lack of star power/power bats certainly hurts. There are clear flaws; Vastine still can't hit a breaking ball, LaNeve strikes out too much to be a dependable middle-of-the-order bat, Diaz is fine (but not showing the star potential people thought he had) and whatever other things one would point out. On the other hand, I think there are guys on the bench who will end up helping and it feels like Corbin put some guys on notice.
- I'm really disappointed in the defense. Diaz's error today was uncharacteristic. Vastine can play better than he's played and I'm sure he will. Even there, this feels like a bottom-five Corbin defensive team. That's not as bad as it sounds (his teams always defend well) but it's just not what I'm used to seeing. My guess is they'll end up playing Hewett or Humphrey, or maybe both, full-time in the outfield. I think their game is going to have to be doubles, defense and steals and they lend themselves to this.
- Holcomb is really a wild card. I noticed a couple of times this weekend he did some small things that could be considered showing the umpires up and Corbin yanked him right after the error. So there could be some growing-up to do. I also would not concede first to him since Maldonado has been nicked up.
- Was running some stats tonight to compare Vanderbilt's pitching staffs against the rest of the SEC. The staff ERA after today is 4.69, which is the next-highest in the league. It's "component" or "expected" ERA (Bill James stat based on type/number of base runners allowed, strikeouts, etc.) is 3.08.
I have triple-checked my formula to see if it's right, which it is, though there's *something* about it that doesn't work for college (it under-estimates ERA by about two-thirds of a run on average). Still, it does that for everybody and the difference between Vanderbilt and the next-worst team (LSU at 0.86) is significant.
So this tells me there's some mis-fortune (probably in clustering runners, which, as you've watched games, it's the huge innings like today that have been fatal) that should even out over time.
- I also think that in time, some of the pitchers who are giving up the big innings will either get it right or be replaced by other guys. You're really not going to see more than 9-10 guys pitch on competitive weekends so, should the guys getting shelled not get right, they'll be replaced.
- Looking forward to seeing (I guess?) Thompson and Dutkanych start again in the midweek. Dutkanych, if he's as good as I think, will wind up starting on weekends. I just don't think Bryce Cunningham can give them more than 3-4 innings with consistency.
- So with all that, color me still-not-worried about the pitching, though I wish they'd have certain guys throw more aggressively at times and attack the zone more than they do. (Like yesterday.)
- I'm still not sure what to make of the lineup. I don't think it's a bad one by any stretch, but the lack of star power/power bats certainly hurts. There are clear flaws; Vastine still can't hit a breaking ball, LaNeve strikes out too much to be a dependable middle-of-the-order bat, Diaz is fine (but not showing the star potential people thought he had) and whatever other things one would point out. On the other hand, I think there are guys on the bench who will end up helping and it feels like Corbin put some guys on notice.
- I'm really disappointed in the defense. Diaz's error today was uncharacteristic. Vastine can play better than he's played and I'm sure he will. Even there, this feels like a bottom-five Corbin defensive team. That's not as bad as it sounds (his teams always defend well) but it's just not what I'm used to seeing. My guess is they'll end up playing Hewett or Humphrey, or maybe both, full-time in the outfield. I think their game is going to have to be doubles, defense and steals and they lend themselves to this.
- Holcomb is really a wild card. I noticed a couple of times this weekend he did some small things that could be considered showing the umpires up and Corbin yanked him right after the error. So there could be some growing-up to do. I also would not concede first to him since Maldonado has been nicked up.
