Did a bit of research. Just looked only at P5 coaches who lost to FCS schools and what their ultimate fate was. I only went back to 2010 because this would have taken much longer to go back to 2000 or even further. Some interesting recurring themes that I see from looking at the data. There are some outliers in this dataset imo (Frank Beamer for one).
1) don’t play an FCS team from the Dakotas, Illinois, or Washington. Just say no. 2) if you lose to an FCS in year 1 and have not won at least 6 games by year 3, you’re basically toast. 3) the coaches who were able to bounce back the best from an FCS loss were those who had prior head coaching experience and had prior successful head coaching experience. 4) brand new coaches who lost to an FCS progrum in game 1 did not fare well and were ultimately fired.
2023:
Sac. State over Stanford. Troy Taylor. TBD.
2022:
Southern Illinois over Northwestern. Pat Fitzgerald. Fired. Yeah he was fired because his players liked to touch penis. But he his teams were bad since the 2020 anomaly.
2021:
Montana over Washington. Jimmy Lake. Fired.
ETSU over Vanderbilt. Clark Lea. TBD.
Jacksonville State over Florida State. Mike Norvell. TBD. Though, if any of y’all listen to split zone duo, TPTB at FSU wanted to fired Norvell, but after firing Taggart so quickly, they couldn’t afford to do so. Florida State is trending up now.
Northern Arizona over Arizona. Jedd Fisch. Tbd.
2019:
Citadel over Georgia Tech. Geoff Collins. Fired.
2018:
Nichols State over Kansas. David Beaty. Fired.
2017:
Liberty over Baylor. Matt Rhule. Successful head coach who went 1-11, 7-6, 11-3 in his 3 years at Baylor. He also had a proven track record of success prior to taking the Baylor job.
2016:
Eastern Washington over Wazzu. Mike Leach (RIP in peace). Wasn’t fired. Left on his own accord. Successful head coach. EWU is an FCS power I might add.
Northern Iowa over Iowa State. Matt Campbell. TBD but bout to be fired. Btw he won 8 games in years 2 and year 3. Also came from a proven track record at Toledo.
Richmond over UVA. Bronco Mendenhall. Was basically fired because he wouldn’t fire our favorite DC Nick Howell. Won 8 games by year 3. Came from a proven track record at BYU.
Illinois State over Northwestern. Pat Fitz. See above.
North Dakota State over Iowa. Kirk Ferentz. My personal opinion on Ferentz is he’s a terrible head coach who for some reason keeps his son employed. But he has a ton of wins, but also NDSU is NDSU and is probably better than most G5 progrums. Ferentz is still a successful head coach.
2015:
Portland State over Wazzu. Mike Leach. See above.
South Dakota State over Kansas. Dave Beaty. First season. First game. New head coach. Lost to FCS team. Never been a head coach before. Sound familiar?
Citadel over South Carolina. Shawl Elliot (interim). Fired. But this one doesn’t really count for the exercise.
2014:
NDSU over Iowa State. Paul Rhoads. Fired.
2013:
NDSU over KSU. Bill Snyder. Successful coach. Proven track record.
EWU over Oregon State. Mike Riley. Successful coach prior to that, but after that not so much. He left after one more year at OSU to go to Nebraska where he was bad and got fired.
Northern Iowa over Iowa State. Paul Rhoads. See above.
Georgia Southern over Florida. Will Muschamp. Fired.
2012:
Youngstown State over Pitt. Paul Chryst. Would eventually be fired from Wisconsin, but I would say he was a successful head coach. Also, no head coaching experience. First game lost to an FCS opponent. Difference is he won 6 games in year 1, 7 games in year 2, and 6 games in year 3. Compared to Clark’s 2, 5, and likely 2.
NDSU over Colorado. Jon Embree. Fired.
2011:
Richmond over Duke. David Cutcliffe. Successful head coach.
Sacramento State over Oregon State. Mike Riley. See above.
NDSU over Minnesota. Jerry Kill. Ultimately resigned over health issues. Had a proven track record of success at SIU and Northern Illinois. Lost to NDSU in year 1 and won 8 games by year 3.
2010:
Jacksonville State over Ole Miss. Houston Nutt. Fired.
NDSU over Kansas. Turner Gill. Fired.
James Madison over Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer. Hall of Fame coach by this point.
South Dakota over Minnesota. Tim Brewster. Fired.
1) don’t play an FCS team from the Dakotas, Illinois, or Washington. Just say no. 2) if you lose to an FCS in year 1 and have not won at least 6 games by year 3, you’re basically toast. 3) the coaches who were able to bounce back the best from an FCS loss were those who had prior head coaching experience and had prior successful head coaching experience. 4) brand new coaches who lost to an FCS progrum in game 1 did not fare well and were ultimately fired.
2023:
Sac. State over Stanford. Troy Taylor. TBD.
2022:
Southern Illinois over Northwestern. Pat Fitzgerald. Fired. Yeah he was fired because his players liked to touch penis. But he his teams were bad since the 2020 anomaly.
2021:
Montana over Washington. Jimmy Lake. Fired.
ETSU over Vanderbilt. Clark Lea. TBD.
Jacksonville State over Florida State. Mike Norvell. TBD. Though, if any of y’all listen to split zone duo, TPTB at FSU wanted to fired Norvell, but after firing Taggart so quickly, they couldn’t afford to do so. Florida State is trending up now.
Northern Arizona over Arizona. Jedd Fisch. Tbd.
2019:
Citadel over Georgia Tech. Geoff Collins. Fired.
2018:
Nichols State over Kansas. David Beaty. Fired.
2017:
Liberty over Baylor. Matt Rhule. Successful head coach who went 1-11, 7-6, 11-3 in his 3 years at Baylor. He also had a proven track record of success prior to taking the Baylor job.
2016:
Eastern Washington over Wazzu. Mike Leach (RIP in peace). Wasn’t fired. Left on his own accord. Successful head coach. EWU is an FCS power I might add.
Northern Iowa over Iowa State. Matt Campbell. TBD but bout to be fired. Btw he won 8 games in years 2 and year 3. Also came from a proven track record at Toledo.
Richmond over UVA. Bronco Mendenhall. Was basically fired because he wouldn’t fire our favorite DC Nick Howell. Won 8 games by year 3. Came from a proven track record at BYU.
Illinois State over Northwestern. Pat Fitz. See above.
North Dakota State over Iowa. Kirk Ferentz. My personal opinion on Ferentz is he’s a terrible head coach who for some reason keeps his son employed. But he has a ton of wins, but also NDSU is NDSU and is probably better than most G5 progrums. Ferentz is still a successful head coach.
2015:
Portland State over Wazzu. Mike Leach. See above.
South Dakota State over Kansas. Dave Beaty. First season. First game. New head coach. Lost to FCS team. Never been a head coach before. Sound familiar?
Citadel over South Carolina. Shawl Elliot (interim). Fired. But this one doesn’t really count for the exercise.
2014:
NDSU over Iowa State. Paul Rhoads. Fired.
2013:
NDSU over KSU. Bill Snyder. Successful coach. Proven track record.
EWU over Oregon State. Mike Riley. Successful coach prior to that, but after that not so much. He left after one more year at OSU to go to Nebraska where he was bad and got fired.
Northern Iowa over Iowa State. Paul Rhoads. See above.
Georgia Southern over Florida. Will Muschamp. Fired.
2012:
Youngstown State over Pitt. Paul Chryst. Would eventually be fired from Wisconsin, but I would say he was a successful head coach. Also, no head coaching experience. First game lost to an FCS opponent. Difference is he won 6 games in year 1, 7 games in year 2, and 6 games in year 3. Compared to Clark’s 2, 5, and likely 2.
NDSU over Colorado. Jon Embree. Fired.
2011:
Richmond over Duke. David Cutcliffe. Successful head coach.
Sacramento State over Oregon State. Mike Riley. See above.
NDSU over Minnesota. Jerry Kill. Ultimately resigned over health issues. Had a proven track record of success at SIU and Northern Illinois. Lost to NDSU in year 1 and won 8 games by year 3.
2010:
Jacksonville State over Ole Miss. Houston Nutt. Fired.
NDSU over Kansas. Turner Gill. Fired.
James Madison over Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer. Hall of Fame coach by this point.
South Dakota over Minnesota. Tim Brewster. Fired.
