Ok, I lied, I can't help myself. @Chris Lee take a look at this. I've been saying find me a team with top 20 SoS (afraid after VU's round one game it will drop below that, currently 19) that finished at least 4 games over 500 that didn't make the tourney. Everyone focuses on NET ranking and other things, but consistently over the yrs the committee has talked about who you played and who you beat, how you did on the road, how you scheduled in the non conf. VU got in with 15 losses and that was I think just the 2nd time in history a team got in with that many losses, at 18-15, but they had the #1 Sos (and their predictive numbers were good, but I'm telling you the predictive numbers were not that big of a thing in 16/17)
Well, just last yr, Oklahoma went 18-15 in the regular season, finished with the #7 SoS (not sure what it was before tourney games), and got a 1 seed in the NIT, so first 4 out. Now, compare their numbers to VU's currently:
VU 18-13 OK 18-15
VU 11-7 in SEC OK 7-11 in B12
VU road record 5-6 OK 3-8
VU Sos 19 OK Sos 7 (higher before tourney play???)
VU NonConf Sos 115 OK 170
VU Q1 4-9 OK 5-12
VU Q2 5-1 OK 6-2
VU Q3 4-2 OK 1-1
VU Q4 5-1 OK 6-0
VU 83 NET OK 39
VU KPom, BPI and Sag average 78.67 OK's 33
VU KPI/SoR average 46.5 OK 55
So, IF big if VU can manage to win that first game, which I think at that point decision will be pretty much made on VU making it or not, in comparison to OK, which was one of the last 4 teams not to make it as they got a 1 seed in the NIT, I think VU's resume looks darn good to them ESPECIALLY if like everyone says the NET ranking number doesn't mean alot in terms of that number.
I mean, VU will have a better record, a much better conference record, a better win pct (slightly) in Q1, better win pct in Q2 and of course then better overall win pct in combined Q1 and 2, Better road record, better non conf SoS, better results metrics. Really only place they lose out is on the NET ranking (bad lose) which of course means they lose on predictive measures badly as well, and the 1 Q4 loss (do have 2 Q3 losses, but OK went 1-1 so I don't look at 4-2 as much different, plus both of VU's Q3 losses were high Q 3 losses and OK was a middle Q3 loss.
I mean, I look at these two resumes and I think VU's is better, and OK got a 1 seed in the NIT.
This is what I've been saying that EVERYONE in terms of bracket folks do not talk about. SoS, SoS, SoS and how you overall do agains that has always been the number one most consistent thing the committee has done over the yrs. IF VU can finish 5 games above 500 and that SoS is around 20, they have shot. If it was top 10 I'd call them a lock. So that is really the only thing that worries me, is top 20ish enough to get them there? Will committee look at theirs as maybe 19 and pretty much make a decision if VU wins Thursday they are in? Tough, I don't know?
Well, just last yr, Oklahoma went 18-15 in the regular season, finished with the #7 SoS (not sure what it was before tourney games), and got a 1 seed in the NIT, so first 4 out. Now, compare their numbers to VU's currently:
VU 18-13 OK 18-15
VU 11-7 in SEC OK 7-11 in B12
VU road record 5-6 OK 3-8
VU Sos 19 OK Sos 7 (higher before tourney play???)
VU NonConf Sos 115 OK 170
VU Q1 4-9 OK 5-12
VU Q2 5-1 OK 6-2
VU Q3 4-2 OK 1-1
VU Q4 5-1 OK 6-0
VU 83 NET OK 39
VU KPom, BPI and Sag average 78.67 OK's 33
VU KPI/SoR average 46.5 OK 55
So, IF big if VU can manage to win that first game, which I think at that point decision will be pretty much made on VU making it or not, in comparison to OK, which was one of the last 4 teams not to make it as they got a 1 seed in the NIT, I think VU's resume looks darn good to them ESPECIALLY if like everyone says the NET ranking number doesn't mean alot in terms of that number.
I mean, VU will have a better record, a much better conference record, a better win pct (slightly) in Q1, better win pct in Q2 and of course then better overall win pct in combined Q1 and 2, Better road record, better non conf SoS, better results metrics. Really only place they lose out is on the NET ranking (bad lose) which of course means they lose on predictive measures badly as well, and the 1 Q4 loss (do have 2 Q3 losses, but OK went 1-1 so I don't look at 4-2 as much different, plus both of VU's Q3 losses were high Q 3 losses and OK was a middle Q3 loss.
I mean, I look at these two resumes and I think VU's is better, and OK got a 1 seed in the NIT.
This is what I've been saying that EVERYONE in terms of bracket folks do not talk about. SoS, SoS, SoS and how you overall do agains that has always been the number one most consistent thing the committee has done over the yrs. IF VU can finish 5 games above 500 and that SoS is around 20, they have shot. If it was top 10 I'd call them a lock. So that is really the only thing that worries me, is top 20ish enough to get them there? Will committee look at theirs as maybe 19 and pretty much make a decision if VU wins Thursday they are in? Tough, I don't know?
