Florida is literally as good a defensive and hitting team as there is in college baseball, so you know they're going to be in almost every game in which their starter pitches well. And games between Corbin and Sully are chess matches, because not only do they know each other's personnel as thoroughly as their own, they know each other's strategy better than anyone.
If Puk can pitch like he did last night, I don't see how they don't make it to Omaha, unless they somehow don't get a national seed and end up playing their Super in Talahassee or Louisville. Of course, this is baseball, and there's always a Stonybrook...
No surprise, but it's pretty clear now that the pitching situation is what it appears to be. As Phil said himself, he was behind in the count all night, and gave up the big hits on 3-2 counts that should never have been. (I believe both home runs were off 3-2 counts.) He and Ferguson still just cannot consistently get first pitch strikes, and neither have that pitch that keeps hitters off balance when ahead in the count.
Where Phil succeeded late is not trying to get late-pitch-count strikeouts on his fast ball, which he almost always missed high and right down the middle earlier in the game. Pretty clear Sully had them sitting on that pitch.
Tyler is that guy who might start a fifth game in Hoover and he has "that game" because of the size of that ball park. But he was again behind in many counts, with Delay lunging everywhere to catch pitches that never came close to his glove. It seems clear his mechanics are all over the place. He gets through because of his height and downward motion, which Phil doesn't have, but you cannot count on either of them to win games like the one we saw last night.
The wonderful thing about baseball is that there are so many variables, and so many things can and do happen during a game/series/season that are unpredictable. No one would argue that last year's Vandy team was at best Corbin's third best team talent-wise. But what that team did have was three solid starters plus Stone and Ravenelle out of the bullpen. VU just does not have that this year.
And that team's makeup benefitted from the ball/bat combo that is no longer being used. What used to be a routine flyout is now a home run. Which I like, but that means you cannot make as many mistakes as you could last year versus good teams and survive.
As Tim often says, to win titles you have to have someone step up to the moment and surprise everyone, even themselves. This team still desperately needs that guy, and I don't know where it comes from. Defensively this is as good a team as I've ever seen at Vandy, but there are obvious holes in the pitching situation that will eventually get this team beat.
You can see where Wright, McCarty and Johnson will become solid college pitchers, but I don't see either of them as the next Minor, Gray, Price, Fulmer or Beede. This is the first Corbin team where I feel like if the draft goes badly, they could be just an average SEC pitching team next year. On the positive side, guys who do want the college experience might be assured of stepping in as a starter from Day 1, which hasn't happened in this program in almost a decade. I would love to see Everett and Raby come to school. Both are in-state guys who appear to be certain aces at this level. You could see Vandy with three in-state starters next year (though I would guess one of the lefties, either Kilichowski or Bowden, would be in the mix).
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Louisville is a huge game for seeding implications. I see Corbin going bullpen for that game and sending eight guys out there.
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LSU won, and aTm (16-8) lost. So VU (18-8) is now mathematically behind LSU (17-7) in the race for the SEC title.
aTm has two more vs USC and three at Ole Miss. I don't see the Aggies remaining in the title race from here.
LSU has two more against a fast-sinking Missouri club and three at Carolina. I don't see LSU sweeping the Gamecocks, and I do think Vandy can sweep Bama.
Also, fwiw, Tennessee upset Arkansas last night and Georgia and MSU lost. Since UGa swept UT in Knoxville, UGa wins the tie-breaker for Hoover. UT finishes with State, which will likely decide which of the two end up staying home.
http://www.secsports.com/standings/baseball
If Puk can pitch like he did last night, I don't see how they don't make it to Omaha, unless they somehow don't get a national seed and end up playing their Super in Talahassee or Louisville. Of course, this is baseball, and there's always a Stonybrook...
No surprise, but it's pretty clear now that the pitching situation is what it appears to be. As Phil said himself, he was behind in the count all night, and gave up the big hits on 3-2 counts that should never have been. (I believe both home runs were off 3-2 counts.) He and Ferguson still just cannot consistently get first pitch strikes, and neither have that pitch that keeps hitters off balance when ahead in the count.
Where Phil succeeded late is not trying to get late-pitch-count strikeouts on his fast ball, which he almost always missed high and right down the middle earlier in the game. Pretty clear Sully had them sitting on that pitch.
Tyler is that guy who might start a fifth game in Hoover and he has "that game" because of the size of that ball park. But he was again behind in many counts, with Delay lunging everywhere to catch pitches that never came close to his glove. It seems clear his mechanics are all over the place. He gets through because of his height and downward motion, which Phil doesn't have, but you cannot count on either of them to win games like the one we saw last night.
The wonderful thing about baseball is that there are so many variables, and so many things can and do happen during a game/series/season that are unpredictable. No one would argue that last year's Vandy team was at best Corbin's third best team talent-wise. But what that team did have was three solid starters plus Stone and Ravenelle out of the bullpen. VU just does not have that this year.
And that team's makeup benefitted from the ball/bat combo that is no longer being used. What used to be a routine flyout is now a home run. Which I like, but that means you cannot make as many mistakes as you could last year versus good teams and survive.
As Tim often says, to win titles you have to have someone step up to the moment and surprise everyone, even themselves. This team still desperately needs that guy, and I don't know where it comes from. Defensively this is as good a team as I've ever seen at Vandy, but there are obvious holes in the pitching situation that will eventually get this team beat.
You can see where Wright, McCarty and Johnson will become solid college pitchers, but I don't see either of them as the next Minor, Gray, Price, Fulmer or Beede. This is the first Corbin team where I feel like if the draft goes badly, they could be just an average SEC pitching team next year. On the positive side, guys who do want the college experience might be assured of stepping in as a starter from Day 1, which hasn't happened in this program in almost a decade. I would love to see Everett and Raby come to school. Both are in-state guys who appear to be certain aces at this level. You could see Vandy with three in-state starters next year (though I would guess one of the lefties, either Kilichowski or Bowden, would be in the mix).
-----
Louisville is a huge game for seeding implications. I see Corbin going bullpen for that game and sending eight guys out there.
----
LSU won, and aTm (16-8) lost. So VU (18-8) is now mathematically behind LSU (17-7) in the race for the SEC title.
aTm has two more vs USC and three at Ole Miss. I don't see the Aggies remaining in the title race from here.
LSU has two more against a fast-sinking Missouri club and three at Carolina. I don't see LSU sweeping the Gamecocks, and I do think Vandy can sweep Bama.
Also, fwiw, Tennessee upset Arkansas last night and Georgia and MSU lost. Since UGa swept UT in Knoxville, UGa wins the tie-breaker for Hoover. UT finishes with State, which will likely decide which of the two end up staying home.
http://www.secsports.com/standings/baseball
