Used my made up forumula. Of note here, VU would move up a spot if I waited for new SoS as I'm guessing they will move up at least a spot maybe 2, but I'm guessing committee has their field tonight waiting on winners of Ivy league and A10.
Saying that, VU is actually ranking up as my first team out, but a team 2 spots ahead of them is North Texas. In looking at their resume I'd be really surprised if they make it, but they have good numbers when you factor in conf record and road wins, and they actually have 4 Q1+2 wins, and are 4-5 in those quads with only 1 loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Again I don't think they make it, but with the committee being 7 small conf teams and only 5 major conf, well, I've seen a surprise team from a small conf make it.
The other small conf team that ranks higher than I thought was Bradley, as they would be the 6th team out. I only bring them up because their AD is the chair of the committee.
Now, if you take N. TX out, VU is the last team in. The 4 last teams in , from most safe to least safe is Nevada, Arkansas, AZ St and Vanderbilt. The last 4 in the main field are from safest to least safe Wisconsin, Maryland, Providence and Illinois. This echos what Chris said about Wisconsin.
The last 4 out, if you drop N.TX, is NC ST, MSST, Pitt and Clemson. Next 4 out would be (I'll put N TX here) North Texas, Bradley, Oregon and UNC. Michigan, Sam Houston, Rutgers and TX Tech would be team 9-12 (VCU would fall in here if they were to lose later today)
Do i think my formula is accurate, no, but its interesting. I put more weight on SoS, and also give credit for conf record and road wins. Other things included are Q1-Q4 wins and losses, Net Rank, Predictive and Result based metrics.
Whats interesting is how weak the ACC is. Will the committee only put 3 ACC teams in. I don't know, NC State has got clobbered 3 times by Clemson.
Clemson is very similar to VU in for a bubble team they have a good Q1+Q2 record, better than VU's at 7-5. But they have 2 Q3 and 2Q4 losses, and their SoS is 107.
NC St , well they have 1 Q1 team. For a major conf team to only have 1 Q1 win, meaning 1 what most consider only 1 real quality win, that's almost 100% lock not to make it. They are 8-10 in Q1+2 record. Now they have avoided the bad losses with 0 Q3 and 4 losses, but will the committee really put a major conf team in with only 1 Q1 win. And Clemson is watching that closely
MS ST has 1 less Q1 win than VU, and has same amount of losses outside of Q1 as VU, but 3 of those are Q2 and 1 Q3. VU has only 1 Q2, 2 Q3 and 1 Q4. Of course, MSST went 8-10 in conf (9-11 counting SEC tourney) while VU went 11-7 (13-8 counting tourney). VU won the head to head by 5 in Memorial. Its really interesting when comparing the two. MSU has those 2 big non conf wins, neutral vs MQ (which keeps looking better) and home vs TCU (TCU was without their best player) but their overal nonconf schedule ranks 230 vs VUS 120.
Pitt only has 4 Q1 wins compared to VU's 5, they are 7-9 in the first 2 Q's while VU is 10-11. PItt also has a Q4 loss, and 1 Q3 loss to VU's 2. Pitt's SoS is 89 compared to VU's 24.
Rutgers, man, so many have them in, and they do have a good Q1+Q2 record at 10-10, and have 5 Q1 wins. But, they have 4 Q3 losses , 2 more than VU's. Their SoS is 39 and they are 19-14.
Everyone's other than Wisc NET ranking is better to way better than VU's. Of the bubble teams I think Pitts is the closest at 67.
If the NET ranking is important or a decent factor, VU probably is in trouble. If they truly don't really use it in terms of what the teams is, I don't see how VU isn't in. And, if they look at all at conf record, VU will not be in the play in game. Actually if they truly don't put any emphasis on a teams ranking and do on SoS, I think VU and Wisconsin will both make it, and some teams everyone thought was in, like a NC St, Pitt or MSST, are in real danger of not making it. That could affect an AR too.
I know when I do my more subjective pick tomorrow, I won't have Nevada in. They are in by my formula, and Jerry Palms as well, and have a high NET of 37. Wouldn't surprise me though if they do make it even though I'm predicting they won't, they dont deserve it but that dang MW has tricked these computers somehow. While Nevada does have 4 Q1 wins and is 8-8 in Q1+Q2, only 2 of those 8 wins are outside the MW (Sam Houston St and Tulane) and they add 2 Q3 losses and a SoS of 70.
Didn't get into AZ St, they have 5 Q1 wins, are 9-11 in Q1+2, have a Q4 loss but no Q3. Was 2 games above 500 in conf. Fairly low NET of 66. As you can see, they are right there with VU depending on how you look at them.
Its a toss up, I could see anywhere from last 4 byes to last 4 in to last team in to a 1 seed in NIT. Only thing that would surprise me would be anything higher than a 10 seed or lower than a 1 seed in the NIT.
I wouldn't bet on any of them.
In looking at everything, i am guessing
Saying that, VU is actually ranking up as my first team out, but a team 2 spots ahead of them is North Texas. In looking at their resume I'd be really surprised if they make it, but they have good numbers when you factor in conf record and road wins, and they actually have 4 Q1+2 wins, and are 4-5 in those quads with only 1 loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Again I don't think they make it, but with the committee being 7 small conf teams and only 5 major conf, well, I've seen a surprise team from a small conf make it.
The other small conf team that ranks higher than I thought was Bradley, as they would be the 6th team out. I only bring them up because their AD is the chair of the committee.
Now, if you take N. TX out, VU is the last team in. The 4 last teams in , from most safe to least safe is Nevada, Arkansas, AZ St and Vanderbilt. The last 4 in the main field are from safest to least safe Wisconsin, Maryland, Providence and Illinois. This echos what Chris said about Wisconsin.
The last 4 out, if you drop N.TX, is NC ST, MSST, Pitt and Clemson. Next 4 out would be (I'll put N TX here) North Texas, Bradley, Oregon and UNC. Michigan, Sam Houston, Rutgers and TX Tech would be team 9-12 (VCU would fall in here if they were to lose later today)
Do i think my formula is accurate, no, but its interesting. I put more weight on SoS, and also give credit for conf record and road wins. Other things included are Q1-Q4 wins and losses, Net Rank, Predictive and Result based metrics.
Whats interesting is how weak the ACC is. Will the committee only put 3 ACC teams in. I don't know, NC State has got clobbered 3 times by Clemson.
Clemson is very similar to VU in for a bubble team they have a good Q1+Q2 record, better than VU's at 7-5. But they have 2 Q3 and 2Q4 losses, and their SoS is 107.
NC St , well they have 1 Q1 team. For a major conf team to only have 1 Q1 win, meaning 1 what most consider only 1 real quality win, that's almost 100% lock not to make it. They are 8-10 in Q1+2 record. Now they have avoided the bad losses with 0 Q3 and 4 losses, but will the committee really put a major conf team in with only 1 Q1 win. And Clemson is watching that closely
MS ST has 1 less Q1 win than VU, and has same amount of losses outside of Q1 as VU, but 3 of those are Q2 and 1 Q3. VU has only 1 Q2, 2 Q3 and 1 Q4. Of course, MSST went 8-10 in conf (9-11 counting SEC tourney) while VU went 11-7 (13-8 counting tourney). VU won the head to head by 5 in Memorial. Its really interesting when comparing the two. MSU has those 2 big non conf wins, neutral vs MQ (which keeps looking better) and home vs TCU (TCU was without their best player) but their overal nonconf schedule ranks 230 vs VUS 120.
Pitt only has 4 Q1 wins compared to VU's 5, they are 7-9 in the first 2 Q's while VU is 10-11. PItt also has a Q4 loss, and 1 Q3 loss to VU's 2. Pitt's SoS is 89 compared to VU's 24.
Rutgers, man, so many have them in, and they do have a good Q1+Q2 record at 10-10, and have 5 Q1 wins. But, they have 4 Q3 losses , 2 more than VU's. Their SoS is 39 and they are 19-14.
Everyone's other than Wisc NET ranking is better to way better than VU's. Of the bubble teams I think Pitts is the closest at 67.
If the NET ranking is important or a decent factor, VU probably is in trouble. If they truly don't really use it in terms of what the teams is, I don't see how VU isn't in. And, if they look at all at conf record, VU will not be in the play in game. Actually if they truly don't put any emphasis on a teams ranking and do on SoS, I think VU and Wisconsin will both make it, and some teams everyone thought was in, like a NC St, Pitt or MSST, are in real danger of not making it. That could affect an AR too.
I know when I do my more subjective pick tomorrow, I won't have Nevada in. They are in by my formula, and Jerry Palms as well, and have a high NET of 37. Wouldn't surprise me though if they do make it even though I'm predicting they won't, they dont deserve it but that dang MW has tricked these computers somehow. While Nevada does have 4 Q1 wins and is 8-8 in Q1+Q2, only 2 of those 8 wins are outside the MW (Sam Houston St and Tulane) and they add 2 Q3 losses and a SoS of 70.
Didn't get into AZ St, they have 5 Q1 wins, are 9-11 in Q1+2, have a Q4 loss but no Q3. Was 2 games above 500 in conf. Fairly low NET of 66. As you can see, they are right there with VU depending on how you look at them.
Its a toss up, I could see anywhere from last 4 byes to last 4 in to last team in to a 1 seed in NIT. Only thing that would surprise me would be anything higher than a 10 seed or lower than a 1 seed in the NIT.
I wouldn't bet on any of them.
In looking at everything, i am guessing
