I spent some time looking at each regional through the eyes of the computers. I recorded how each team did in the three college baseball computer rankings (Sagarin, Sonny Moore and Boyd's World's ISIRs). I've looked at each of them in depth and though there are some things that raise an eyebrow here and there (ISIRs being the one I have the most issues with), I largely trust the results.
I had other choices I could have included--for instance, Warren Nolan has his own set of power rankings, but has has always come up with some really screwy results (this year, he has Missouri State No. 1, Charleston 7th, Oral Roberts 10th, North Florida 16th and Stony Brook 17th, for starters) and so I didn't include that one.
I also didn't include the RPI in the following calculations; I don't really feel that it's a terrific indicator of team strength and it weights road games disproportionately.
I also included a metric that sized up the host team's draw, weighted for how much you play each seed. Generally speaking, over the last few years, the host plays 35 percent of its games against the 2 and the 4, and 30 percent against the 3. So, you'll see the weighted rankings for the host and its opponents in parenthesis.
So, with all that said, here are all the regional teams with their averaged power rankings, listed in order from toughest to easiest for the hosts according to the weighting in the above paragraph.
UCSB, 14 (31)
USC, 15
Virginia, 43
San Diego St., 37
CAL STATE-FULLERTON, 19 (52)
Arizona St., 26
Clemson, 40
Pepperdine, 87
DALLAS BAPTIST, 12 (55)
Oregon St., 12
Texas, 45
VCU, 107
VANDERBILT, 7 (56)
Radford, 37
Indiana, 47
Lipscomb, 82
FLORIDA ST., 12 (58)
Charleston, 33
Auburn, 33
Mercer, 105
HOUSTON, 23 (63)
Rice, 24
Louisiana-Lafayette, 52
Houston Baptist, 111
OKLAHOMA ST., 6 (64)
Arkansas, 30
Oral Roberts, 35
St. John's, 123
UCLA, 2 (70)
Ole Miss, 58
Maryland, 44
Bakersfield, 104
ILLINOIS, 12 (70)
Notre Dame, 29
Wright St., 39
Ohio, 138
TEXAS A&M, 6 (83)
Coastal Carolina, 29
Cal, 20
Texas Southern, 191
MIAMI, 3 (87)
East Carolina, 56
Columbia, 102
Florida International, 104
LOUISVILLE, 17 (89)
Bradley, 93
Michigan, 51
Morehead St., 117
MISSOURI ST., 9 (91)
Iowa, 57
Oregon, 34
Canisius, 174
FLORIDA, 6 (117)
Florida Atlantic, 22
South Florida, 72
Florida A&M, 236
TCU, 6, 133
N.C. State, 24
Stony Brook, 118
Sacred Heart, 256
LSU, 4 (139)
UNC-Wilmington, 75
Tulane, 64
Lehigh, 267
NOTE: USCB really got screwed. Virginia has played without key players and has gotten some of them back, and you may see Nathan Kirby just yet, which would be enormous if he's healthy. When Virginia, which should have been a 2, is the fourth-toughest team in your regional (according to this), you're in bad, bad shape.
I had other choices I could have included--for instance, Warren Nolan has his own set of power rankings, but has has always come up with some really screwy results (this year, he has Missouri State No. 1, Charleston 7th, Oral Roberts 10th, North Florida 16th and Stony Brook 17th, for starters) and so I didn't include that one.
I also didn't include the RPI in the following calculations; I don't really feel that it's a terrific indicator of team strength and it weights road games disproportionately.
I also included a metric that sized up the host team's draw, weighted for how much you play each seed. Generally speaking, over the last few years, the host plays 35 percent of its games against the 2 and the 4, and 30 percent against the 3. So, you'll see the weighted rankings for the host and its opponents in parenthesis.
So, with all that said, here are all the regional teams with their averaged power rankings, listed in order from toughest to easiest for the hosts according to the weighting in the above paragraph.
UCSB, 14 (31)
USC, 15
Virginia, 43
San Diego St., 37
CAL STATE-FULLERTON, 19 (52)
Arizona St., 26
Clemson, 40
Pepperdine, 87
DALLAS BAPTIST, 12 (55)
Oregon St., 12
Texas, 45
VCU, 107
VANDERBILT, 7 (56)
Radford, 37
Indiana, 47
Lipscomb, 82
FLORIDA ST., 12 (58)
Charleston, 33
Auburn, 33
Mercer, 105
HOUSTON, 23 (63)
Rice, 24
Louisiana-Lafayette, 52
Houston Baptist, 111
OKLAHOMA ST., 6 (64)
Arkansas, 30
Oral Roberts, 35
St. John's, 123
UCLA, 2 (70)
Ole Miss, 58
Maryland, 44
Bakersfield, 104
ILLINOIS, 12 (70)
Notre Dame, 29
Wright St., 39
Ohio, 138
TEXAS A&M, 6 (83)
Coastal Carolina, 29
Cal, 20
Texas Southern, 191
MIAMI, 3 (87)
East Carolina, 56
Columbia, 102
Florida International, 104
LOUISVILLE, 17 (89)
Bradley, 93
Michigan, 51
Morehead St., 117
MISSOURI ST., 9 (91)
Iowa, 57
Oregon, 34
Canisius, 174
FLORIDA, 6 (117)
Florida Atlantic, 22
South Florida, 72
Florida A&M, 236
TCU, 6, 133
N.C. State, 24
Stony Brook, 118
Sacred Heart, 256
LSU, 4 (139)
UNC-Wilmington, 75
Tulane, 64
Lehigh, 267
NOTE: USCB really got screwed. Virginia has played without key players and has gotten some of them back, and you may see Nathan Kirby just yet, which would be enormous if he's healthy. When Virginia, which should have been a 2, is the fourth-toughest team in your regional (according to this), you're in bad, bad shape.
