Not a lot really, and long odds for some of these, but if you just want to root for perfect scenarios for VU here you go:
#1 is Ok St at WV - The B12 just gives team’s opportunities after opportunities. Two teams with high SoS (9 at 4 respectively) and solid NET rankings (37 at 32). Would be a quad one win for OK St and a high quad 2 for WV (losses the same). WV is 5-11 in quad 1 with no Q3 or 4 losses. Ok St is 4-8 Q1 with a Q3 loss. WV is 4-10 in the B12 and OK St is 7-7. On paper OK St has a slightly easier schedule, but it’s the B12 so no gsmes are easy. With the high SoS and knowing they say they don’t look at conference records it’s tough to know which team is closer to out, but I’d say to root for OK St tonight despite it being a Q1 win and then having the worse NET rank. WV with road games left at KS and IA St and home vs KSU, 1-2 finish a likely scenario and will they really give an at large bid to a team with a 5-13 conference record. I just don’t see that happening, though with their such high SoS I’d not completely rule it out. 16-15 heading into conf play too would be tough if they went 16-16 or 17-16 even.
#2: Louisville at Duke - Most have Duke safely in, and I understand that but this is not a typical Duke Resume. SoS is only 51 thanks mainly to the weak ACC, which gives Duke outside of VA no Q1 chances at home And that shows with their 2-6 Q1 record (compared to VUs 4-7 record). Big thing with them no Q3 or Q4 losses and 19-8 record. Best wins are neutral court wins over Xavier and Iowa. Louisville comes in hot (ok but when you have 4 total wins and coming with a 1 game winning streak that’s hot for them) and would give Duke a big fat awful loss (Louisville is 308 in the NET). Odds of this happening is closer to 0% than 1%, but if the major major upset happened, while Duke is probably still safe you just never know, lose 2 of 3 or last 3 down the stretch and things just might start getting interesting for coach Kless Dukies.
#3 Minnesota at Illinois - look, Illinois is probably safe, and the better Illinois is, the better Missouri is (they beat Illinois) which helps SEC which helps VU. Ok that maybe a bit of a stretch, but not as much as you think. Illinois has two mammoth wins in UCLA and Texas both on neutral courts. Outside of that. Nothing much. 3-7 Q1 total with Rutgers hanging on to a Q1 win at 29 NET. Which tells you they have lost to every B10 team that is a projected lock or close to it in the tourney right now but that home win vs Rutgers (also have home win vs MSU who is a bubble team). They are 0fer vs Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa. And they’ve not even played Purdue yet. While I think outside of a disaster finish just those two non conferences wins alone puts them in good shape, Minnesota has only 1 win in the B10 and is 248 in the NET. Similar to Duke a loss here would be a Q4 loss and put. some pressure on those final few games.
If you really want to dig even Deeper, AL A&M who VU struggled to beat plays home vs a really bad FL A&M team. VU if you remember struggled vs the 321 NET AL AM team, not sure what this would really do to VU but I’d just prefer not to find out as FLAM is 359 in the NET, that 8 point victory instead of 10 or 11 may hurt VU just a bit more.
#1 is Ok St at WV - The B12 just gives team’s opportunities after opportunities. Two teams with high SoS (9 at 4 respectively) and solid NET rankings (37 at 32). Would be a quad one win for OK St and a high quad 2 for WV (losses the same). WV is 5-11 in quad 1 with no Q3 or 4 losses. Ok St is 4-8 Q1 with a Q3 loss. WV is 4-10 in the B12 and OK St is 7-7. On paper OK St has a slightly easier schedule, but it’s the B12 so no gsmes are easy. With the high SoS and knowing they say they don’t look at conference records it’s tough to know which team is closer to out, but I’d say to root for OK St tonight despite it being a Q1 win and then having the worse NET rank. WV with road games left at KS and IA St and home vs KSU, 1-2 finish a likely scenario and will they really give an at large bid to a team with a 5-13 conference record. I just don’t see that happening, though with their such high SoS I’d not completely rule it out. 16-15 heading into conf play too would be tough if they went 16-16 or 17-16 even.
#2: Louisville at Duke - Most have Duke safely in, and I understand that but this is not a typical Duke Resume. SoS is only 51 thanks mainly to the weak ACC, which gives Duke outside of VA no Q1 chances at home And that shows with their 2-6 Q1 record (compared to VUs 4-7 record). Big thing with them no Q3 or Q4 losses and 19-8 record. Best wins are neutral court wins over Xavier and Iowa. Louisville comes in hot (ok but when you have 4 total wins and coming with a 1 game winning streak that’s hot for them) and would give Duke a big fat awful loss (Louisville is 308 in the NET). Odds of this happening is closer to 0% than 1%, but if the major major upset happened, while Duke is probably still safe you just never know, lose 2 of 3 or last 3 down the stretch and things just might start getting interesting for coach Kless Dukies.
#3 Minnesota at Illinois - look, Illinois is probably safe, and the better Illinois is, the better Missouri is (they beat Illinois) which helps SEC which helps VU. Ok that maybe a bit of a stretch, but not as much as you think. Illinois has two mammoth wins in UCLA and Texas both on neutral courts. Outside of that. Nothing much. 3-7 Q1 total with Rutgers hanging on to a Q1 win at 29 NET. Which tells you they have lost to every B10 team that is a projected lock or close to it in the tourney right now but that home win vs Rutgers (also have home win vs MSU who is a bubble team). They are 0fer vs Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa. And they’ve not even played Purdue yet. While I think outside of a disaster finish just those two non conferences wins alone puts them in good shape, Minnesota has only 1 win in the B10 and is 248 in the NET. Similar to Duke a loss here would be a Q4 loss and put. some pressure on those final few games.
If you really want to dig even Deeper, AL A&M who VU struggled to beat plays home vs a really bad FL A&M team. VU if you remember struggled vs the 321 NET AL AM team, not sure what this would really do to VU but I’d just prefer not to find out as FLAM is 359 in the NET, that 8 point victory instead of 10 or 11 may hurt VU just a bit more.
