#1 - TN at TX AM - Well, here is the brutal stretch run for TX AM. The thing that is hugely in their favor is they get their first and only games vs TN and AL at home. They have road trips at MSU and OM. 2-2 or better they are easily in, 0-4 I'd start to worry if I'm an Aggie fan. I actually think they are probably ok at 1-3, but it be better to not do that and take any chances as that could make for a very nervous selection show for Aggie fans. Now, TN is in despite their 2-4 slide they are on. But, if they continue to struggle, VU could pass them in the standings (if they tie not sure who'd get the tiebreaker). But, TN is VU's best win to date, so the more TN slides, the more that best win doesn't look so much like a best win. Its kind of a win win / lose lose situation with TN and VU. If you want to just side on you hate TN and want them to lose no matter what, ok you can do that and hope that helps VU finish ahead of TN in conf standings. I don't know how much if any committee actually looks at the standings, but a 4th or 3rd place finish has to be good for VU, right (they have to keep playing well to accomplish that no matter what TN does).
#2 - MS St at Missouri - This is a really interesting game. Maybe kind of a toss up of if you are VU, who do you want to win. Computers really like MS St way better than VU and better than MO. They are 43 in NET (compared to Missouri at 51). Conf record is really only thing I think holding them back at this point. They have zero quad 3 or 4 losses, and are a respectable 3-5 in quad 1. 4-4 in quad 2 isn't great, but for a bubble team isn't that bad. VU plays them the last game of the season as we all know, so maybe you want MSU to win as VU kind of controls their own destiny with MSU. If we knew VU was going to beat MSU, I'd say root for MSU here because finishing ahead of MO is a notch for VU. Most think MO is pretty safely in, and a big reason is they have some really nice wins in at TN, home vs IA St and I think maybe a neutral game vs ILL, but it was in St Louis so maybe that was home not for sure. Other thing is they have zero losses outside of Quad 1 which is huge. But they are coming off a 33 point loss to Aub and 9 point loss to TX AM. On paper this may be the hardest game left, at least by NET is is, as they play at GA (net 131), LSU (net 157) and home vs Ole Miss (net 130). Go 0-4 or even 1-3 and I'd really be worried. If they go 3-1 though think they are pretty safe. But, I do think with a not very clean finish, VU could pass them in the pecking order if they continue to keep winning.
#3 - TX Tech at Oklahoma - TX Tech, like VU, two weeks ago wasn't really on the NCAA tourney radar. But, what a 3 game stretch. 3 quad 1 victories in a row, and the 9th place team in the B12 is squarely on the bubble. With a NET of 54, no Q3 or 4 losses, and 4 quad 1 wins now, I think VU fans are strongly rooting for OK here, despite their throttling of AL and 4 quad 1 wins total and no Q3 or Q4 losses, their 3-11 B12 record will be hard to overcome despite their very impressive SoS #2. A running theme is the B12, not one team is completely out, all have great SoS and I'd be surprised if at least 8 of 10 teams there don't make the tourney. Will be interesting to see how committee looks, as historically a top 5 SoS really gives you a lot of leeway, and finishing over 500 with that type of SoS gives you a great chance to make the tourney.
#4 - GA Tech at Pitt - You could look at this in two ways. 1: Pitt is a bubble team (NET 50, 4-3 Quad 1, 3-3 Quad 2, a Quad 3 loss and a quad 4 loss, and half their wins are quad 4 wins, but they are 12-4 and in 3rd place in the ACC). Another quad 4 loss could really really hurt their chances, so if you look at VU fighting Pitt for a spot, easy to be rooting for GA Tech here. 2: Now, Pitt is far and away VU's best non-conference win, and what type of damage does this do to that "good" win. If you want to keep that win as good as possible, a Pitt win here is what you want. I guess its a win/lose / win/lose situation here no matter the outcome.
#5 - Miami at VA Tech - This is all about VA Tech. What a crazy team and stretch. In the last 5 games, they have home wins vs the first and 3rd place teams in the ACC (VA and Pitt), but they've taken a Q4 loss in a home loss vs BC, and a Q3 loss in a road loss at GA Tech. So, by that logic you have to think they are going to win tonight. 64 Net isn't great, ACC is a weak conf and a 6-10 record there plus 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss kind of trumps a solid 3-3 Q1 record. But, a loss here to a team that's very solid in the field (most have them as a 4-5 seed) would be what VU fans really want, as a win I think will get VA Tech right back on the bubble with an argument to get a bid.
#6 - Georgia at Arkansas - Again one of those games where AR is one of VUs best wins, but VU wants to also finish ahead of them in the standings, and a loss here I think despite their high NET could put a dink at least in their armor. I also think AR is one of those teams that their resume to me looks very weak ( SoS of 40, Q1 record of 3-6, a Q3 loss) yet a whopping NET ranking of 19. Really?? Anyways, with the high NET ranking, and the injury issue they had with Smith, hard to see them not making it unless they fall flat on their face, which losing at home to GA and getting a Q3 loss would be a good start to that. So again, which is more important, keeping that win as good as possible for VU or trying to get VU ahead of AR in the pecking order? Hard to know.
#7 - Utah St at Wyoming - Utah St is #34 in Net, 0-4 in Q1; 7-1 Q2 and 13 of their 20 wins coming in Q3 and Q4, and 1 loss in each. Doesn't seem like a 53 spot ahead of VU resume does it. Oh the Mountain West trickery. Best win is listed as home win vs Nevada. Best neutral court win was vs Washington State. Best road win, San Jose State. Wyoming would give them another Q3 loss, that would only be good for VU and bad for Utah St's at large chances.
#8 - Indiana at Michigan St - I debated putting this as a game to watch, Indiana is pretty much a lock at this point. While Michigan St is not in lock territory, they are in solid shape. With 6 Q1 victories, and only one bad loss (Q3), and a NET Sos of 4 and Net Rank of 39, its hard to see them not making it. Not sure if they are making up that MN game, but they have 2 or 3 if they make that up type of games not much to win/but something to lose. If they were to lose 1 or for sure 2 of those, and not get this game or the road game vs Iowa, it could get interesting. That said with what that college is going through, I can't really root against them.
If you really want to dig deep, a few other games I'll briefly mention:
Colorado ST at San Diego St - As Gary Parrish likes to say, tricking the computers, that's what all these Mountain West teams do IMO (see Utah St above). 17 in the NET, yet with only a 2-4 record in Q1 (home win over Boise St and road win at Utah St) and a 52 SoS, I don't get it. But, this would be a Q3 loss and maybe, just maybe the committee would look closer at these false NET rankings.
VCU at St Joe - Ahh, to have that VCU game reffed a bit differently, 6 Tech foul shots hard to overcome. Don't know how close VCU really is to the bubble, 82 Net, 184 SoS and 2 Q4 losses. They are 2-1 in Q1 though, and 20-7 overall. Do you want to just bury them with no chance at tourney, or make sure they stay as good as possible to help VU in that tough loss. I'd vote bury them, but not sure they really need that or not.
Villanova at Xavier - Villanova is 13-14, 0-9 against Q1, ranked 84 in the NET and SoS 51. They are on no one's radar as a bubble team at this point. However, their last 4 games are all Q1 opportunities. Win all 4 and they I think would be back in the picture, 3-1 ehh think that is a stretch but no sense in taking chances, take the Jay Wrightless Wildcats completely out of at large possibility.
Kent St at Ball St - Kent St is 20-5, with 3 of those 5 losses coming in Q1 (1 in Q2 and 1 in Q4). No Q1 wins is usually a bad sign to have any tourney chances, but they are over 30 spots ahead of VU in the NET at 55, lets just end all hope here, if KSU has any, anyways.
#2 - MS St at Missouri - This is a really interesting game. Maybe kind of a toss up of if you are VU, who do you want to win. Computers really like MS St way better than VU and better than MO. They are 43 in NET (compared to Missouri at 51). Conf record is really only thing I think holding them back at this point. They have zero quad 3 or 4 losses, and are a respectable 3-5 in quad 1. 4-4 in quad 2 isn't great, but for a bubble team isn't that bad. VU plays them the last game of the season as we all know, so maybe you want MSU to win as VU kind of controls their own destiny with MSU. If we knew VU was going to beat MSU, I'd say root for MSU here because finishing ahead of MO is a notch for VU. Most think MO is pretty safely in, and a big reason is they have some really nice wins in at TN, home vs IA St and I think maybe a neutral game vs ILL, but it was in St Louis so maybe that was home not for sure. Other thing is they have zero losses outside of Quad 1 which is huge. But they are coming off a 33 point loss to Aub and 9 point loss to TX AM. On paper this may be the hardest game left, at least by NET is is, as they play at GA (net 131), LSU (net 157) and home vs Ole Miss (net 130). Go 0-4 or even 1-3 and I'd really be worried. If they go 3-1 though think they are pretty safe. But, I do think with a not very clean finish, VU could pass them in the pecking order if they continue to keep winning.
#3 - TX Tech at Oklahoma - TX Tech, like VU, two weeks ago wasn't really on the NCAA tourney radar. But, what a 3 game stretch. 3 quad 1 victories in a row, and the 9th place team in the B12 is squarely on the bubble. With a NET of 54, no Q3 or 4 losses, and 4 quad 1 wins now, I think VU fans are strongly rooting for OK here, despite their throttling of AL and 4 quad 1 wins total and no Q3 or Q4 losses, their 3-11 B12 record will be hard to overcome despite their very impressive SoS #2. A running theme is the B12, not one team is completely out, all have great SoS and I'd be surprised if at least 8 of 10 teams there don't make the tourney. Will be interesting to see how committee looks, as historically a top 5 SoS really gives you a lot of leeway, and finishing over 500 with that type of SoS gives you a great chance to make the tourney.
#4 - GA Tech at Pitt - You could look at this in two ways. 1: Pitt is a bubble team (NET 50, 4-3 Quad 1, 3-3 Quad 2, a Quad 3 loss and a quad 4 loss, and half their wins are quad 4 wins, but they are 12-4 and in 3rd place in the ACC). Another quad 4 loss could really really hurt their chances, so if you look at VU fighting Pitt for a spot, easy to be rooting for GA Tech here. 2: Now, Pitt is far and away VU's best non-conference win, and what type of damage does this do to that "good" win. If you want to keep that win as good as possible, a Pitt win here is what you want. I guess its a win/lose / win/lose situation here no matter the outcome.
#5 - Miami at VA Tech - This is all about VA Tech. What a crazy team and stretch. In the last 5 games, they have home wins vs the first and 3rd place teams in the ACC (VA and Pitt), but they've taken a Q4 loss in a home loss vs BC, and a Q3 loss in a road loss at GA Tech. So, by that logic you have to think they are going to win tonight. 64 Net isn't great, ACC is a weak conf and a 6-10 record there plus 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss kind of trumps a solid 3-3 Q1 record. But, a loss here to a team that's very solid in the field (most have them as a 4-5 seed) would be what VU fans really want, as a win I think will get VA Tech right back on the bubble with an argument to get a bid.
#6 - Georgia at Arkansas - Again one of those games where AR is one of VUs best wins, but VU wants to also finish ahead of them in the standings, and a loss here I think despite their high NET could put a dink at least in their armor. I also think AR is one of those teams that their resume to me looks very weak ( SoS of 40, Q1 record of 3-6, a Q3 loss) yet a whopping NET ranking of 19. Really?? Anyways, with the high NET ranking, and the injury issue they had with Smith, hard to see them not making it unless they fall flat on their face, which losing at home to GA and getting a Q3 loss would be a good start to that. So again, which is more important, keeping that win as good as possible for VU or trying to get VU ahead of AR in the pecking order? Hard to know.
#7 - Utah St at Wyoming - Utah St is #34 in Net, 0-4 in Q1; 7-1 Q2 and 13 of their 20 wins coming in Q3 and Q4, and 1 loss in each. Doesn't seem like a 53 spot ahead of VU resume does it. Oh the Mountain West trickery. Best win is listed as home win vs Nevada. Best neutral court win was vs Washington State. Best road win, San Jose State. Wyoming would give them another Q3 loss, that would only be good for VU and bad for Utah St's at large chances.
#8 - Indiana at Michigan St - I debated putting this as a game to watch, Indiana is pretty much a lock at this point. While Michigan St is not in lock territory, they are in solid shape. With 6 Q1 victories, and only one bad loss (Q3), and a NET Sos of 4 and Net Rank of 39, its hard to see them not making it. Not sure if they are making up that MN game, but they have 2 or 3 if they make that up type of games not much to win/but something to lose. If they were to lose 1 or for sure 2 of those, and not get this game or the road game vs Iowa, it could get interesting. That said with what that college is going through, I can't really root against them.
If you really want to dig deep, a few other games I'll briefly mention:
Colorado ST at San Diego St - As Gary Parrish likes to say, tricking the computers, that's what all these Mountain West teams do IMO (see Utah St above). 17 in the NET, yet with only a 2-4 record in Q1 (home win over Boise St and road win at Utah St) and a 52 SoS, I don't get it. But, this would be a Q3 loss and maybe, just maybe the committee would look closer at these false NET rankings.
VCU at St Joe - Ahh, to have that VCU game reffed a bit differently, 6 Tech foul shots hard to overcome. Don't know how close VCU really is to the bubble, 82 Net, 184 SoS and 2 Q4 losses. They are 2-1 in Q1 though, and 20-7 overall. Do you want to just bury them with no chance at tourney, or make sure they stay as good as possible to help VU in that tough loss. I'd vote bury them, but not sure they really need that or not.
Villanova at Xavier - Villanova is 13-14, 0-9 against Q1, ranked 84 in the NET and SoS 51. They are on no one's radar as a bubble team at this point. However, their last 4 games are all Q1 opportunities. Win all 4 and they I think would be back in the picture, 3-1 ehh think that is a stretch but no sense in taking chances, take the Jay Wrightless Wildcats completely out of at large possibility.
Kent St at Ball St - Kent St is 20-5, with 3 of those 5 losses coming in Q1 (1 in Q2 and 1 in Q4). No Q1 wins is usually a bad sign to have any tourney chances, but they are over 30 spots ahead of VU in the NET at 55, lets just end all hope here, if KSU has any, anyways.
