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Baseball Probables Comparison

Anchordown0714

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Dec 4, 2023
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Lots of unknowns with all of these teams (including Vanderbilt, obviously) but we now have probable starting pitchers announced for all 4 squads. Let's compare them.

Friday: JD Thompson vs Isaac Lyon.

Thompson is a preseason 2nd team all-SEC member, preseason 3rd team all-american, and rated the 12th best starting pitcher in the country. He posted a 4.15 ERA last season and was all-sec 2nd team according to Rawlings and ABCA. He is Vandy's ace and is probably the best or 2nd best pitcher in the tournament (competing with Nebraska's Mason McConnaughey for that title). Lyon was first team all-WAC last season as a sophomore who posted a 3.97 ERA and struck out 76 over 81.2 innings. He won't overwhelm you with his stuff but has phenomenal command, only walking 16 batters in those 81.2 innings, and pitches well to contact. Ultimately, though, Vandy should have the decided pitching advantage in this game. Thompson and Lyon put up a similar ERA but the WAC is not comparable to the SEC, and Thompson had a much higher K/9 rate.

Saturday: Ethan McElvain vs Ty Horn

Horn and McElvain are pretty similar stories. McElvain posted a 3.24 ERA over 25 innings out of the bullpen last season. He has electric stuff and is arguably the most naturally talented pitcher Vandy has had since Rocker/Leiter, but he is returning from a lingering back injury which ended his season early and forced Vanderbilt's staff to not let him pitch in the fall and winter. It remains to be seen if he will be in top form upon returning. If he does, look out, we're in for a show. Horn posted a 5.91 ERA over 21.1 innings out of Nebraska's bullpen last year. Don't let those numbers fool you, though. Horn is the 5th best prospect in the BIG 10 for the 2026 draft per D1Baseball. His stuff is very strong and he has ace potential if he can put it all together. In my opinion, this will be a high variance game of two pitchers with sky-high ceilings trying to see who can put it together best. It could easily end with both throwing extremely strong games or both really showing their lack of experience and refinement.

Sunday: Cody Bowker vs Trevor Hansen.

Bowker was Georgetown's friday night guy last year and put up a 3.0 ERA over 48.0 innings for the Hoyas on the way to earning a second team All-Big East selection. Bowker struck out 59 batters in those 48 innings while only walking 20. Hansen had a solid freshman season as UCI's Sunday starter last year, posting a 5.69 ERA over 74.1 innings while making 16 starts. Hansen doesn't blow anyone away with anything but is a solid pitcher who was reliable and that UCI hopes takes a significant step up this season. Overall, though, this is another game where Vandy should have a pitching advantage. Bowker has looked phenomenal and is only improving as he focuses solely on pitching rather than playing both ways. While it is likely Hansen has improved, Bowker has too - and he put up stronger stats in a more or less comparable league as well as in the Cape.
 
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