I'll spare everyone the disclaimers -- sometimes I am accurate and other times way off. I think we all tend to remember the times we were dead right about sports predictions and internally minimize the times we are wrong, so with that in mind I won't make any claims to any special accuracy.
The things I value the most are:
1. what programs was this person offered by
2. how do they look on film minus the false positives of a good play for the wrong reason
3. what was their production? I highly think production matters. More on that when I get to Wakefield
This was an interesting class to me. I think we all would say "some kids won't work out" when we are talking macrolevel analysis, but one of the very main reasons I started doing these rankings years ago is at the individual level is was essentially always "this kid looks great!" -- when people here with knowledge and expertise were analyzing.
What is interesting is more than any other year I can remember, I find myself doing that too. Overall, I'm not particularly thrilled by thus class. Especially as in year 3 I think Mason should have started figuring out a refined pitch on how to recruit these kids to VU, which faculty to talk to which kind of recruit, what parts of campus to show, etc. etc. Certainly Corbin has this nailed and Franklin got his pitch perfected too, IMO. I still think Mason uses the same basic sales pitch to everyone and doesn't adjust enough to each individual. And I think we could do better.
THAT SAID, when I dig into each film, my concerns rapidly dissipate. This is particularly true with Wakefield, fir example, who seemed as we signed him he was yet "another backup plan that we had to go to" after striking out. Watching every piece of film I could find on him -- no way. The guy has every single aspect you want in a running back.
So, who knows? I see this as a Bobby Johnson type class. Not incredible flash, but a lot of potential upside. Only time will tell, of course, but without more blather, here are my rankings of the class 1-19. (I didn't include Loy because I couldn't find a way to evaluate a kicker on a ordinal scale like this versus position players)
1. Donavan Tennyson
Love him. Love his film and production and length catching the ball and knack for the big play -- whch we desperately need. We should be super excited about him. Note, also, how often he would have been wide open past the secondary even in double coverage if he didn't have to slow down to adjust to the ball (which he did very well, timing it versus stopping)
2. JoeJuan Williams
Hard not to see that offer list and say Mason his a homerun here. I like that he can play S or CB, and that when he plays man he presses the coverage with a lot of confidence. The best film of him was the one of VU's site at the all-star camp, he just plays with the confidence of a winner.
3. Devin Cochran
Flexible and fluid. Great footwork and stays low for a guy 6'7. Lots of upside if he works hard. He has a block where he gets to the second level on his film that looked NFL to me.
4. Jamauri Wakefield
His film, relative to expectations, blew me away. He has the two most important features of a RB, vision and ability to cut back quickly, to go with great size and speed. I am much higher on him than I was on both Crawford and George last year. Indeed, you watch his video and you get even more bewildered that we would ever sign someone like George. Anyway, Wakefield was my favorite video of all of our signees, reminds me of TJ Yeldon. I'm pumped.
5. Deuce Wallace
I think this is the highest I have had of a VU QB signee in quite some time. Kinda reminds me of McKenzie Adams but he actually finds the open receiver. At his best under duress, which is a rather wonderful thing for a VU QB to have. I doubt he will ever be a star, but I suspect we will see him play for multiple years.
6. Zaire Jones
Very natural and superior athlete. Covers a lot of space exceptionally quickly. Another guy who looks like an SEC athlete and that he belongs competing at a high level.
7. Kalija Lipscomb
Very impressive production his Jr. and Sr. Year. Runs very crisp routes and has soft hands. Nice find, underrated I think from Rivals, et al.
8. Jackson Winrow
Essentially a tie with Lipscomb. I liked Winrow's film more, but Lipscomb gets the slight nod from offer list and production (which is just slightly better). We killed it at WR. I could honestly see all three playing as true freshman. There is need at the position, and real talent coming in.
9. Andre Mintze
Bulk this guy up and put him at DE! Does not like to be blocked. I really hope he does not go the tweener route because he has real rush ability and speed. Reminds me of a quicker, smaller Theon Kadri, but perhaps without that first step.
10. Sean Auwae
I'm impressed with his offer list, and kinda reminds me of Rich Saenz at OL. But at times his film seemed to simply show a much bigger guy manhandling much smaller guys -- and sometimes in a laboriously slow manner. I have mixed feelings on him.
11. Austin Quinlan
If I were rating on purely run support he would be much higher. Or, if there were simply more video of him in pass defense. Team essentially used him in a 4-3 on run downs and he fit the bill. Super aggressive and very solid open field tackler. Could see him as a blitz specialist.
12. Frank Coppet
Changes direction well. Nice football instincts and plays both zone and man well. Very sure tackler. I worry a bit about his raw speed -- compare the ground he covers in the time he does versus Zaire Jones. It isn't there.
13. Elijah Hamilton
Closes on ball well and nice measurables. Reminds me a bit of Myron Lewis.
14. Braden Kopp
He starts off too high and his feet are often too narrow = I worry SEC rush ends will blow right by him. That said, nice video he is far from plodding and his sustains momentum. He must be a beast trapping DL in HS.
15. Joseph Sa'o
Moves well in the tight space of the DL. Intriguing but also seems a projects. Will be interesting to see if he evolves into a player or disappears.
16. Drew Birchmeier
Agile for a DT but seems to lack small space initial explosion. Maybe a Ryan aulds type -- he grew on me as I watched his film a second time.
17. Cameron Tidd
Nothing really stood out to me on film. But nothing stood out overly negative either.
18. Turner Cockrell
Not much career production, but has soft hands in the form of a Pat Akos or Stephen Bright. Needs to gain size without losing any speed or I think will be recruited over.
19. Kenny Hebert
Relentless pursuit but that was about all of the upside on film I saw. I simply don't see a spot for him on our LB corp.
So there you have it. I get that people will see someone near the lower part of the list and say "no way" but keep in mind I intentionally do this rankings (versus ratings) style because, quite frankly, it will play out as a ranking. Every team has a best player or so, great players, etc etc all the way down to people who do not contribute. So this is my best guess, and again, just a guess.
The things I value the most are:
1. what programs was this person offered by
2. how do they look on film minus the false positives of a good play for the wrong reason
3. what was their production? I highly think production matters. More on that when I get to Wakefield
This was an interesting class to me. I think we all would say "some kids won't work out" when we are talking macrolevel analysis, but one of the very main reasons I started doing these rankings years ago is at the individual level is was essentially always "this kid looks great!" -- when people here with knowledge and expertise were analyzing.
What is interesting is more than any other year I can remember, I find myself doing that too. Overall, I'm not particularly thrilled by thus class. Especially as in year 3 I think Mason should have started figuring out a refined pitch on how to recruit these kids to VU, which faculty to talk to which kind of recruit, what parts of campus to show, etc. etc. Certainly Corbin has this nailed and Franklin got his pitch perfected too, IMO. I still think Mason uses the same basic sales pitch to everyone and doesn't adjust enough to each individual. And I think we could do better.
THAT SAID, when I dig into each film, my concerns rapidly dissipate. This is particularly true with Wakefield, fir example, who seemed as we signed him he was yet "another backup plan that we had to go to" after striking out. Watching every piece of film I could find on him -- no way. The guy has every single aspect you want in a running back.
So, who knows? I see this as a Bobby Johnson type class. Not incredible flash, but a lot of potential upside. Only time will tell, of course, but without more blather, here are my rankings of the class 1-19. (I didn't include Loy because I couldn't find a way to evaluate a kicker on a ordinal scale like this versus position players)
1. Donavan Tennyson
Love him. Love his film and production and length catching the ball and knack for the big play -- whch we desperately need. We should be super excited about him. Note, also, how often he would have been wide open past the secondary even in double coverage if he didn't have to slow down to adjust to the ball (which he did very well, timing it versus stopping)
2. JoeJuan Williams
Hard not to see that offer list and say Mason his a homerun here. I like that he can play S or CB, and that when he plays man he presses the coverage with a lot of confidence. The best film of him was the one of VU's site at the all-star camp, he just plays with the confidence of a winner.
3. Devin Cochran
Flexible and fluid. Great footwork and stays low for a guy 6'7. Lots of upside if he works hard. He has a block where he gets to the second level on his film that looked NFL to me.
4. Jamauri Wakefield
His film, relative to expectations, blew me away. He has the two most important features of a RB, vision and ability to cut back quickly, to go with great size and speed. I am much higher on him than I was on both Crawford and George last year. Indeed, you watch his video and you get even more bewildered that we would ever sign someone like George. Anyway, Wakefield was my favorite video of all of our signees, reminds me of TJ Yeldon. I'm pumped.
5. Deuce Wallace
I think this is the highest I have had of a VU QB signee in quite some time. Kinda reminds me of McKenzie Adams but he actually finds the open receiver. At his best under duress, which is a rather wonderful thing for a VU QB to have. I doubt he will ever be a star, but I suspect we will see him play for multiple years.
6. Zaire Jones
Very natural and superior athlete. Covers a lot of space exceptionally quickly. Another guy who looks like an SEC athlete and that he belongs competing at a high level.
7. Kalija Lipscomb
Very impressive production his Jr. and Sr. Year. Runs very crisp routes and has soft hands. Nice find, underrated I think from Rivals, et al.
8. Jackson Winrow
Essentially a tie with Lipscomb. I liked Winrow's film more, but Lipscomb gets the slight nod from offer list and production (which is just slightly better). We killed it at WR. I could honestly see all three playing as true freshman. There is need at the position, and real talent coming in.
9. Andre Mintze
Bulk this guy up and put him at DE! Does not like to be blocked. I really hope he does not go the tweener route because he has real rush ability and speed. Reminds me of a quicker, smaller Theon Kadri, but perhaps without that first step.
10. Sean Auwae
I'm impressed with his offer list, and kinda reminds me of Rich Saenz at OL. But at times his film seemed to simply show a much bigger guy manhandling much smaller guys -- and sometimes in a laboriously slow manner. I have mixed feelings on him.
11. Austin Quinlan
If I were rating on purely run support he would be much higher. Or, if there were simply more video of him in pass defense. Team essentially used him in a 4-3 on run downs and he fit the bill. Super aggressive and very solid open field tackler. Could see him as a blitz specialist.
12. Frank Coppet
Changes direction well. Nice football instincts and plays both zone and man well. Very sure tackler. I worry a bit about his raw speed -- compare the ground he covers in the time he does versus Zaire Jones. It isn't there.
13. Elijah Hamilton
Closes on ball well and nice measurables. Reminds me a bit of Myron Lewis.
14. Braden Kopp
He starts off too high and his feet are often too narrow = I worry SEC rush ends will blow right by him. That said, nice video he is far from plodding and his sustains momentum. He must be a beast trapping DL in HS.
15. Joseph Sa'o
Moves well in the tight space of the DL. Intriguing but also seems a projects. Will be interesting to see if he evolves into a player or disappears.
16. Drew Birchmeier
Agile for a DT but seems to lack small space initial explosion. Maybe a Ryan aulds type -- he grew on me as I watched his film a second time.
17. Cameron Tidd
Nothing really stood out to me on film. But nothing stood out overly negative either.
18. Turner Cockrell
Not much career production, but has soft hands in the form of a Pat Akos or Stephen Bright. Needs to gain size without losing any speed or I think will be recruited over.
19. Kenny Hebert
Relentless pursuit but that was about all of the upside on film I saw. I simply don't see a spot for him on our LB corp.
So there you have it. I get that people will see someone near the lower part of the list and say "no way" but keep in mind I intentionally do this rankings (versus ratings) style because, quite frankly, it will play out as a ranking. Every team has a best player or so, great players, etc etc all the way down to people who do not contribute. So this is my best guess, and again, just a guess.
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